FanPost

A statistical analysis of DE salaries

So, I got bored the other day. I was thinking about the Jets and the Wilkerson situation. How much is he actually worth? I decided to look at other 3-4 Defensive Ends salaries and the statistics that come with it. Now, it's not a perfect system. It doesn't look into the "bad plays" or the intangibles. I simply assigned points to sacks, pass deflections, and tackles for loss. The 3 big plays that Ends make. Fumbles (forced, or recovered) and INTs were so low for everyone it just seemed too random. I also didn't really take Guaranteed $$ too much into account.

The following players signed recent large 3-4 DE contracts and their guaranteed %:

  1. Watt - 16,666,666 (20.9%)
  2. Jordan - 11,000,000 (41.8%)
  3. Campbell - 10,456,200 (30.9%)
  4. Liuget - 10,250,000 (30.6%)
  5. Casey - 9,000,000 (27.3%)

I averaged these players last 3 seasons "big plays". Each pass deflection and tackle for loss got 1 point. Each sack got 3. Because let's face it, sacks are much bigger plays than the others.

Here is the total "points" each player got followed by the $/point.

  1. Watt- 81.17 ($205,338.80)
  2. Jordan - 35.33 ($311,320.75)
  3. Campbell - 35.83 ($291,800.93)
  4. Liuget - 28.00 ($366,071.89)
  5. Casey - 26.50 ($259,433.96)
A few things to note. First, is that JJ Watt is clearly a superhero. And possibly an Alien. Second, is that Watt is actually underpaid compared to his piers.

The average of the $/point is $306,430. I applied this value to Wilkerson's average stats over the past 3 seasons (7 sacks, 4 PDs, 7 TFL = 32 points). From that calculation Wilkerson's annual salary should be $9,806,000.

Now, Before doing this, I would have said that $10M was a VERY team friendly number. So I then decided to take Watt's number out (not really fair in my opinion) since it is so far off from the other players. That would make Wilkerson's recommended salary $10,615,000. Still, lower than I expected.

As far as the non Watt group goes, Wilkerson has done quite near average in Sacks and Pass Deflections. He is getting 2 more run stuff a year though.

Now, there are more things that go into the salary. What type of person you are, what's the next best replacement, how integral to the system you are, etc. Before this recent Richardson debacle, I would hold to my guns and offer that $10.5M and no more. After today, $11.5 is something I'd be very happy with. $12 is acceptable.

I did the same with Rich (only 2 year average), and so far he has played worthy of a $9,615,000 salary. But, he going into his 3rd year, I expected that would pick up.

What does everyone think? Is this system an alright way of coming up with a salary? Should the point system be tweaked a little bit?

This is a FanPost written by a registered member of this site. The views expressed here are those of the author alone and not those of anybody affiliated with Gang Green Nation or SB Nation.