clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Todd Bowles: How Quickly Do New Coaches Turn Things Around?

New, comments
Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

How quickly should Jets fans expect Todd Bowles to turn the team around? There are seven coaches in the NFL who have won Super Bowls with their current team. Let's take a look at how their teams performed in year one of a new regime.

Wins in Year Before Hired Wins in First Season Improvement  in Year 1
Belichick 8 5 -3
Coughlin 4 6 2
Tomlin 8 10 2
Payton 3 10 7
McCarthy 4 8 4
Harbaugh 5 11 6
Carroll 5 7 2

This suggests good coaches tend to step in and make an immediate impact. Six of the seven oversaw an increase in wins. Just based on the superior talent, one might expect the Jets' record to improve from 2014 to 2015. It might be a good idea to temper expectations a bit, though. Just think of how far the Jets have to come. Mike McCarthy had the third biggest improvement in wins in year one. Like Todd Bowles, he took over a team that went 4-12 the previous season. He improved them by four wins. That only got the Packers to 8-8. It was his second season when the Packers took off and went to the NFC Championship Game.

This shows the year one improvement, but how long did it take these coaches to start contending?

First Playoff Berth First Championship
Belichick 2 2
Coughlin 2 4
Tomlin 1 2
Payton 1 4
McCarthy 2 5
Harbaugh 1 5
Carroll 1 4

This paints a clear picture. These coaches had all shown signs within two years that their teams were going to be forces. Carroll's Seattle team that made the Playoffs in the first year was one of the worst Playoff teams in NFL history and only made because they played in perhaps the worst division in NFL history. Even if we eliminate him, we have six of the seven making the postseason within the first two years.

What are fair expectations? In year one, the Playoffs would be nice. I'm not sure how much this first year is a referendum on Bowles. Certainly it is fair to expect improvement. The team should win more games, but improvement should feel deeper than that. It should feel like there is a foundation in place for greater success in the future. By year two, his system should be firmly in place, and by then we should start to see a team on the rise.