What was the most important play of yesterday's game?
What does Pro Football Reference's win probability think?
Pro Football Reference has a win probability formula that estimates a team's chances of winning based on factors like score, time, and down. Which play swung the game the most in the Jets' favor yesterday by that formula?
They have the game-tying touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Brandon Marshall in the final minute of the fourth quarter. Before that play, the formula gave the Jets a 27.6% chance of winning. After the touchdown, the Jets had a 72.3% chance of winning. It was an enormous swing of 44.7%. The Jets essentially went from having a one in four chance to a three in four chance.
What do I think?
There are a number of plays worthy of consideration. The Marshall touchdown is one, but I would probably go with Ryan Fitzpatrick's 15 yard scramble on fourth and six earlier on the same drive. It gave the Jets new life. It was the one play all day where the game really was on the line for the Jets. If they hadn't executed on the Marshall touchdown, they still had three more chances to throw to the end zone. The game would have been over had Fitzpatrick not picked up that first down.