What does Pro Football Reference's win probability think?
Pro Football Reference has a win probability formula that estimates a team's chances of winning based on factors like score, time, and down. Which play swung the game the most in the Jets' favor Saturday by that formula?
They say it was the huge third down pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Quincy Enunwa. It was third and 14 with under 10:00 to go. Had the Jets not picked it up, they would have had to settle for a field goal try. With the score 13-9, it would have only cut Dallas' lead to a single point. The 24 yard strike to Enunwa set up the go-ahead touchdown. Even though the Jets allowed a game-tying field goal, they never trailed again.
This play brought the Jets from a win expectancy of 41.8% all the way to 70.8%. It was a 29% gain.
What do I think?
I think there are a few valid options. The big pass to Kenbrell Thompkins comes to mind. The Randy Bullock game-winning kick is also up there. Ultimately, though, I think I would stick with the completion to Enunwa. It took the Jets from a situation where they were behind into one where they took control of the game.
It was also a terrific connection. The execution on that play between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Quincy Enunwa was as good as it gets. Fitzpatrick stepped up in the pocket and made a perfect throw on the run. He had to put it a little behind Enunwa to prevent leading his target into a big hit. Enunwa had to use all of his big frame to catch that. It isn't easy to execute in the NFL. Sometimes a play has to be run at that high of a level.