What does Pro Football Reference's win probability think?
Pro Football Reference has a win probability formula that estimates a team's chances of winning based on factors like score, time, and down. Which play swung the game the most in the Jets' favor yesterday by that formula?
They have Buster Skrine's interception of Marcus Mariota as the single play that swung the game most. The Jets were already at a 89.2% chance of winning, but the pick to set the team up at the Tennessee 35 already leading 10-0 raised it 5.3% to 94.5%.
The reason there was no big swing is probably because the Jets were so dominant through the game. They were never lower than 70% in the game or below 99% in the second half. When your numbers are so high at the outset, there is not much room to grow.
What do I think?
I would go with the 16 yard touchdown from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Eric Decker to cap the first drive of the game. It was a dominant 14 play drive.
I think getting a touchdown there was big. Finishing that drive with 7 points set the tone for the game. Had the Titans held the Jets to a field goal after such a promising start, it would have felt like a win for that defense and one that possibly could have helped them build a little momentum. It didn't play out that way. The Jets finished their drive and sent an early message about how they could impose their will.