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Jets vs. Dolphins: What Was the Most Important Play of the Game?

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What was the most important play of yesterday's game?

What does Pro Football Reference's win probability think?

Pro Football Reference has a win probability formula that estimates a team's chances of winning based on factors like score, time, and down. Which play swung the game the most in the Jets' favor yesterday by that formula?

They say it was Marcus Williams' early interception of Ryan Tannehill. With the Dolphins in the red zone and seemingly on the verge of taking an early lead, Williams picked off a pass intended for Kenny Stills and returned it 21 yards. They say this play improved the Jets' chances of winning by 12.2% from 51.2% to 63.4%. This was the biggest swing of any play in the game.

What do I think?

I am going to go with the touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Devin Smith with 14 seconds left in the first half. It gave the Jets a 14-0 lead. I think it really changed the feel of the game. Up to that point, the defense was playing great, but the offense was sputtering. The game had an uneasy feeling to it like the Jets were letting the Dolphins hang around. This touchdown made it feel like the Jets had a real grip on the game for the first time, and they never let go.

What do you think?

Tell us below.