Spending Limbo

Thus far in the 2014 NFL league year it is probably safe to say the Jets have been very conservative in their spending habits.  To date Jets GM John Idzik has only signed one moderately high cost free agent, Eric Decker, and only two free agents, Decker and Michael Vick, that represent a clear upgrade over the 2013 roster.   After going into the 2014 free agency period with one of the highest levels of cap space in the NFL, the lack of spending has surprised many Jets fans, to say the least.  The result has been some harsh criticism of Mr. Idzik for being cheap, or worse, clueless, and some strident defenses of Mr. Idzik as a GM who builds the right way, through the draft, and one following a plan.  His defenders say he is not cheap but rather, disciplined, and he has simply not seen much value in a generally underwhelming free agent class.  It might be interesting to examine what the Jets are doing in comparison with the rest of the NFL.

Our first table lists the Cash Spending of every team in the NFL for 2014.  As of today, one can see the Jets rank dead last in Cash Spending.  Not only are the Jets last in the NFL, they are nearly $12 Million lower than the next lowest spending team, the Texans.  The league average for cash spending is about $113 million.  The Jets are a whopping $31 million, or more than 27%, under league average.  The second least spending team, the Texans, are only 17% under league average.  The top spending team, the Eagles, are 22% above league average spending.  This means that the Jets deviate from league average spending more than any other team, on the upside or on the downside, and by a rather large margin.  The Jets are, in short, outliers.

2014 Cash Spending

Team	Cash Spending
.
Eagles	$138,118,268
Ravens	$134,839,507
Broncos	$130,553,138
Falcons	$126,844,656
Redskins	$122,362,274
49ers	$122,360,654
Bears	$122,354,723
Cardinals	$121,957,354
Buccaneers	$121,732,311
Browns	$120,228,604
Dolphins	$120,018,820
Bills	$119,883,380
Giants	$119,709,597
Packers	$118,748,456
Titans	$117,334,396
Chargers	$113,590,904
Seahawks	$112,049,748
Colts	$111,541,115
Steelers	$110,118,309
Chiefs	$109,798,115
Panthers	$108,353,853
Saints	$108,313,953
Jaguars	$107,013,853
Vikings	$106,961,074
Rams	$106,096,828
Raiders	$106,053,126
Lions	$98,013,534
Patriots	$97,721,117
Bengals	$95,660,771
Cowboys	$95,633,079
Texans	$93,844,811
Jets	$82,052,975

Now let's take a look at Cap Spending and Cap Space.  The table below lists all NFL teams' Cap Spending and Cap Space.  As you can see, the Jets currently have more Cap Space than any other team in the NFL, by a small margin.  The Jets deviate from league average of about $11 million in Cap Space by $21 million, or 191%.  This is a larger deviation from league average than any other NFL team.  The  Browns are a very close second, at 187%, and then come the Bengals at 155%.

The Cap Spending figure represents an even wider divergence from the rest of the NFL.  The Jets have only $86 million in cap spending on the books for 2014.  This figure is an enormous $20 million less than the next lowest team, the Texans.  The Jets Cap Spending deviates from the league average of about $118 million by $32 million, or about 27%.  The next closest team in terms of less spending comes in at only 10% below league average.   The highest spending team, the Eagles, comes in at a little over $130 million in Cap Spending, or 11% above league average.  Again, the Jets are an outlier here, by a wide margin.  No other team in the NFL is spending against the Cap anywhere near as little as the Jets in 2014, and no other team in the NFL comes close to deviating from league average, either on the upside or the downside, as much as the Jets.

2014 Cap Spending and Cap Space

Team	Cap Spending	Cap Space
.
Jets	$86,361,000	$32,194,282
Browns	$109,560,600	$31,758,637
Bengals	$110,848,531	$27,950,666
Jaguars	$112,348,593	$25,230,272
Dolphins	$125,532,365	$19,187,418
Eagles	$130,808,521	$16,253,669
Packers	$122,974,959	$16,183,037
Seahawks	$112,151,368	$15,241,164
Bills	$123,917,641	$14,096,986
Buccaneers	$125,137,790	$13,393,204
Colts	$115,111,323	$13,374,370
Vikings	$115,625,162	$11,926,900
Raiders	$109,853,130	$11,743,581
Titans	$123,643,384	$11,187,702
Bears	$109,967,227	$10,463,489
Falcons	$117,371,152	$10,091,941
Texans	$106,932,137	$9,632,252
Rams	$116,690,365	$8,999,359
Broncos	$129,221,116	$7,621,000
Redskins	$113,843,649	$7,184,886
Patriots	$122,576,158	$6,475,036
Cowboys	$107,019,072	$6,423,564
Panthers	$119,120,272	$5,564,421
Giants	$124,114,430	$5,123,375
Ravens	$119,281,773	$4,976,936
Chiefs	$126,198,040	$4,964,280
Cardinals	$122,112,702	$4,948,483
49ers	$129,173,784	$4,375,310
Chargers	$118,855,145	$3,729,379
Steelers	$125,179,116	$2,698,434
Lions	$126,027,864	$2,193,950
Saints	$116,908,584	$2,138,782

Now let's take an early look at 2015 Cap Spending.  Once again the Jets are last in the league. Only two teams, the Browns and the Bengals, traditionally two of the lowest spending teams in the NFL, are within $10 million of the Jets.  The Jets are a huge $32 million below league average of $107 in Cap Spending in 2015, representing a 30% deviation from league average.  No other team deviates more on the downside, and only two other teams are within 10 percentage points on the downside.  On the upside the Eagles deviate 35% from league average, and no other team deviates more than 23%.  So the Jets in 2015 are again the lowest spending team, and deviate from league average on either the upside or the downside more than any other team except for the Eagles.  Again, the Jets are an outlier.

2015 Cap Spending

Team	Cap Spending
Eagles	$144,766,514
Cardinals	$132,398,068
Dolphins	$129,786,728
Chiefs	$125,529,966
Saints	$124,635,579
Patriots	$123,357,585
Lions	$120,868,062
Cowboys	$120,738,023
Ravens	$120,600,445
Packers	$118,384,200
Titans	$114,706,760
Buccaneers	$112,336,447
Vikings	$112,256,325
Giants	$108,040,371
49ers	$108,038,737
Bills	$107,267,712
Redskins	$106,931,131
Rams	$106,734,079
Panthers	$106,469,947
Chargers	$102,542,876
Colts	$101,300,509
Texans	$98,886,641
Jaguars	$95,906,237
Broncos	$95,612,292
Steelers	$94,122,407
Seahawks	$89,075,808
Raiders	$88,187,059
Falcons	$87,502,412
Bears	$85,207,249
Browns	$79,961,628
Bengals	$77,259,065
Jets	$75,191,915

Finally, let's take a sneak peek at 2015 Cap Space.  Let's assume the Cap rises about 5% to $140 million.  If that happens, as of today the Jets have about $65 million in 2015 Cap Space prior to accounting for rollover from 2014.  The 2014 draft class will cost $2 million in cap space.  Let's assume the Jets make additional minor moves eating up a total of an additional $10 million in Cap Space, after accounting for offsetting roster cuts.  If that is how things play out, then the Jets will roll over some $20 million in Cap Space into 2015.  That $20 million should more than account for Wilkerson's and Kerley's contracts, pay escalators for rookie contracts, and signing another rookie class, meaning the Jets, even after accounting for the major foreseeable Cap Spending in 2015, still should have more than $65 million in Cap space.  One point of emphasis here is that Idzik is not "saving up" for the big internal contracts the Jets will need to account for.   That spending is more than accounted for, with giant gobs of Cap Space to spare.  Barring any large trades or free agent signings like the possible Jackson move, the Jets are sitting on a mountain of Cap Space for years to come. What Idzik chooses to do with that Cap Space will define an era for the Jets.