Reading the Tea Leaves: Land of the Giants?

Does John Idzik have a vision of what kind of receivers fit best in the Jets' system?  Judge for yourself.

Here is the complete list of wide receivers Idzik has brought in to compete for jobs since he became the Jets' general manager.  Notice any patterns?

The primary thing that jumps out at me is the size of the guys on this list.  Only one guy, Hakim, sneaks in under 6' 0".  The average height is a shade over 6' 2"; the average weight is a shade under 205.  These are, as a group, big guys.  Only two guys on the list, Salas and Nelson, earned substantial playing time, and they averaged 6' 3"+ and 212+ lbs.  It is a picture of an approach that favors big receivers.

This may give us a window into the mind of the notoriously tight lipped Idzik.  If this track record is any indication of what the Jets' GM is generally looking for in a wide receiver, perhaps we can begin to predict guys who are likely or unlikely to attract the Jets' interest in free agency and in the draft.

So far we have heard the Jets will be targeting Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders in free agency.  This report struck me as odd, given the tight ship the Jets have generally run since Idzik got here.  Either the ship is springing leaks, or this is at best unfounded speculation on the part of the sources, and at worst deliberate counterintelligence intentionally released by the Idzik team to throw off rivals as to the real targets.  Maclin goes 6' 0", 200 lbs; Sanders goes 5' 11", 186.  These two guys are at the very fringes of the kind of size package Idzik has so far sought out.  That in itself is hardly definitive proof of anything; talent trumps ideal size/weight combos, and Idzik can be expected to try to find the best talent/value package available.  Still, given the Jets' near radio silence since Idzik took over, the leaking of the Jets' interest in these two guys seemed odd, and their lack of size provides additional evidence that such interest may in fact be illusory.

If the Jets are truly interested mostly in larger receivers, who might fit the bill in free agency?  The following chart lists in alphabetical order most of the available free agents who fit the profile and have had at least minimal production recently.  This is not intended to be an exhaustive list, just a representative sample of most of the potential targets who have had decent production and fit the ideal size/weight profile.

Name	Position	Height	Weight
.
Anquan Boldin	WR	6' 1"	220
Dezmon Briscoe	WR	6' 2"	210
Kenny Britt	WR	6' 3"	223
Riley Cooper	WR	6' 3"	222
Eric Decker	WR	6' 3"	218
Darrius Heyward-Bey	WR	6' 2"	219
Jacoby Jones	WR	6' 2"	212
James Jones	WR	6' 1"	208
Robert Meachem	WR	6' 2"	215
Louis Murphy	WR	6' 2"	200
Hakeem Nicks	WR	6' 1"	208
Josh Morgan	WR	6' 1"	220
Jerome Simpson	WR	6' 2"	190

The chart suggests the Jets might be more likely to go after Riley Cooper than Jeremy Maclin.  If we assume knuckleheads don't appeal to Idzik we can probably remove Nicks and Britt as potential targets.  If Idzik is unlikely to go after the most expensive FAs then we can probably remove Decker from the list.  That leaves ten potential targets.  Which, if any, do you think the Jets might sign?

We can also put together a list of potential targets Idzik will likely have little interest in, if the model of big bodied receivers is accurate.  The following chart lists in alphabetical order available free agents who do not fit the profile and have had decent or better production recently.  This is not intended to be an exhaustive list, just a representative sample of most of the potential targets who have had decent production but don't fit the ideal size/weight profile.

It is notable that many of the receivers often mentioned here on GGN as possible free agent acquisitions, such as Sanders, Maclin, McCluster, Tate and Edelman, do not fit Idzik's wide receiver profile.  It will be interesting to see if Idzik's first free agency period with money to burn will reveal the pattern of wide receiver body types to be a definite prototype or simply a random result of a small sample size.  Do you think the Jets will aggressively target any of the receivers in the don't fit the profile chart?

Finally it might be instructive to look at the crop of potential wide receiver draftees.  Which of the top prospects fit the profile?  Below is a chart of some top rated wide receivers who fit the profile:

Name	Position	Height	Weight
.
Sammy Watkins	WR	6' 1"	200
Mike Evans	WR	6' 5"	225
Jordan Matthews	WR	6' 3"	205
Kelvin Benjamin	WR	6' 5"	234
Allen Robinson	WR	6' 3"	211
Jarvis Landry	WR	6' 1"	195
Donte Moncrief	WR	6' 2"	215
Brandon Coleman	WR	6' 6"	220
Davante Adams	WR	6' 2"	216
Cody Hoffman	WR	6' 3"	215
L'Damian Washington	WR	6' 4"	205
Martavis Bryant	WR	6' 5"	200

And here are some top rated wide receivers in the 2014 draft who don't match the profile:

Name	Position	Height	Weight
.
Marquise Lee	WR	6' 0"	195
Odell Beckham	WR	6' 0"	195
Brandin Cooks	WR	5' 10"	181
Paul Richardson	WR	6' 1"	170
Jalen Saunders	WR	5' 9"	157
Tevin Reese	WR	5' 10"	170
Ryan Grant	WR	6' 1"	191
Jeremy Gallon	WR	5' 8"	187
Robert Herron	WR	5' 10"	187
Bruce Ellington	WR	5' 9"	196
Cory Brown	WR	5' 11"	187
Willie Snead	WR	5' 11"	193

If Idzik really loves him some big bodied targets, then we can guess Evans, Matthews, Benjamin and Robinson will be on the Jets' radar in the early rounds of the draft (assuming Watkins will go too early for the Jets to draft him).  In addition, Lee, Beckham, and Cooks are among those who are expected to go early but may not be highly rated by the Jets.

What do you think?  Do you think big bodied wide receivers are a "thing" with Idzik, or is it just a coincidence based on a far too small sample size?  Will the Jets be going after the big boys in free agency and the draft, or will smurfs rule the day?

This offseason will in many ways define who Idzik is as a general manager. One of the many ways he might be defined is in the choices he makes at the Jets' position of greatest need, wide receiver.  It will be very interesting to see if the future belongs to the giants in Jets land.