A Mockery Of Mocks

This is mock draft season.  This time of year everybody and their third cousins twice removed post their mock drafts, hoping to accurately predict how the 2014 NFL draft might go down.  And this time of year here at GGN you predictably read stuff like, "there's no way" so and so will be available at such and such pick, or the Jets WILL use their early selections on such and such position or so and so player.  These statements are often made with a large degree of vehemence and/or certainty.  I thought it might be interesting to revisit the 2013 mock drafts to see how much credence such certainty should be given.  Here is what I found.

Some introductory notes regarding methodology.  I ran a search for 2013 NFL mock draft and simply used the first results that came up.  Presumably they're first on the results list because most people lend them some credence, but who knows for sure?  At any rate, there was no selecting done; I simply took the first results that popped up, and supplemented GGN and SBN mocks for comparison's sake. It should also be noted that all of these mocks were the final pre-draft versions, so far as I could discern, and all were done long after the majority of free agent activity had already shaken out.  Let's take a look at the results.

These results are interesting.  Mingo was the top choice, chosen by 10 of the 16 mock drafts.  Austin was chosen in 6 of the 16 mocks.  It is worth noting that neither player was even available by the time the Jets used their first pick at #9.

Vaccaro (S) was chosen in 4 mocks, Eifert (TE) in 3 mocks, Jordan (DE/OLB) in 2 mocks.  That makes a total of 25 picks out of the 32 picks made in these mocks used on players that not only weren't chosen by the Jets; the positions represented by said players were not chosen at any point by the Jets in the 2013 draft.  Oops.

Geno Smith was the only correct choice of the 32 picks listed.  Even then, they had him going in Round 1 (as did nearly every other mock on the planet), when he actually fell to Round 2, some 25-30 picks later than expected.  Kudos to Long of FF Toolbox and Banks of Sports Illustrated for getting Geno correct, even if it was in the wrong round.

The remaining 5 picks were Ansah (DE), Warmack (G), Rhodes (CB), Hayden (CB), and Floyd (DT).

So there we have it.  16 mock drafts, 32 picks.  Not one pick made coincided with a Jets first round pick.  Only two coincided with any Jets pick.  Smith fell much farther than nearly anyone could have imagined.  The vast majority of picks mocked to the Jets went earlier than anyone expected and were not available when the Jets actually picked.  A  large majority of the mock first round picks were at positions that the Jets did not use any of their 2013 draft picks on.

Moral of the story: nobody knows anything.  And those who claim to know such and such team is "almost certain" to choose such and such position, or "there's no way" so and so will possibly be available when the Jets choose, are very likely expressing a level of certainty that is not only unfounded, but is in fact impossible to justify.

Mock drafts are fun.  They're the lifeblood of offseason discussion.  But anyone who takes them too seriously is likely to have the actual results make a mockery of their mocks.