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As the Super Bowl creeps closer, I thought I'd take a look at the history of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and their QB ratings. What does a champion look like? What is required to have a reasonable shot at a title? Here is what I found.
The chart below lists every NFL champion quarterback by year over the last 50 years. Some introductory explanatory notes are in order.
Tms = The total number of NFL teams in any given year.
NFL AVG Rate = The average QB rating for all NFL quarterbacks in any given year.
20% Level QB Rating QB = The QB rating for the 20th percentile rated QB who started at least 75% of the games in any given year, along with the name of said QB. The 20th percentile is calculated as the nearest whole number to 20% of the teams in any given year. So when there are 32 teams, the 20% Level = the 6th ranked QB. When there are 26 teams, it's the 5th ranked QB, etc.
40% Level QB Rating QB = The QB rating for the 40th percentile rated QB who started at least 75% of the games in any given year, along with the name of said QB. The 40th percentile is calculated as the nearest whole number to 40% of the teams in any given year. So when there are 32 teams, the 40% Level = the 13th ranked QB. When there are 26 teams, it's the 10th ranked QB, etc.
SB Winning QB Rating QB Rank QB = The QB rating of the Super Bowl winning QB, followed by the rank of said QB among all QBs starting at least 75% of the games, followed by the name of said QB.
Some further notes. The two QBs with an * next to their names did not actually play in the Super Bowl. Rather, they were the QBs who played the majority of the games for their team that year. Simms played most of the games in 1990, but Hostetler actually won the Super Bowl. Likewise, Schroeder started the majority of games in 1987, but Doug Williams actually won the Super Bowl. I made the choice to go with the guys who brought the teams to the dance rather than the guys who actually won it, mainly due to small sample size for the actual winners in 1987 and 1990.
The winning quarterbacks in 1968 and 1969 did not have applicable NFL ranks, because they were AFL quarterbacks. Rather than confuse the issue by comparing apples to oranges I chose to omit QB ranks for those two Super Bowl winners.
The two QBs with ** next to their names won the NFL Championship in the years before the Super Bowl existed.
Year |
Tms |
NFL AVG Rate |
20% Level QB Rating QB |
40% Level QB Rating QB |
SB Winning QB Rating QB Rank QB |
2013 |
32 |
84.1 |
96.7 Romo |
87.3 Brady |
|
2012 |
32 |
83.8 |
98.7 Brady |
87.4 Dalton |
87.7 12th Flacco |
2011 |
32 |
82.5 |
92.9 E. Manning |
84.5 Newton |
92.9 6th E. Manning |
2010 |
32 |
82.2 |
95.9 Freeman |
90.8 Garrard |
101.2 3rd Rodgers |
2009 |
32 |
81.2 |
99.9 P. Manning |
88.9 Flacco |
109.6 1st Brees |
2008 |
32 |
81.5 |
93.8 Rodgers |
86.4 McNabb |
80.1 21st Roethlisberger |
2007 |
32 |
80.9 |
95.7 Favre |
86.7 Palmer |
73.9 20th E. Manning |
2006 |
32 |
78.5 |
92.0 Rivers |
79.9 Kitna |
101.0 1st P. Manning |
2005 |
32 |
78.2 |
90.2 Plummer |
82.4 McNair |
98.6 3rd Roethlisberger |
2004 |
32 |
80.9 |
95.2 Green |
83.5 Carr |
92.6 8th Brady |
2003 |
32 |
76.6 |
88.8 Brooks |
80.1 Garcia |
85.9 9th Brady |
2002 |
32 |
78.6 |
87.8 Hasselbeck |
85.4 Collins |
92.9 3rd B. Johnson |
2001 |
31 |
76.6 |
86.5 Brady |
80.3 Fiedler |
86.5 6th Brady |
2000 |
31 |
76.2 |
84.0 Brunell |
77.8 McNabb |
76.6 14th Dilfer |
1999 |
31 |
75.1 |
86.5 Gannon |
77.7 Kitna |
109.2 1st Warner |
1998 |
30 |
76.2 |
90.2 O' Donnell |
81.8 Green |
93.0 5th Elway |
1997 |
30 |
75.0 |
87.7 Bledsoe |
80.7 Marino |
87.5 7th Elway |
1996 |
30 |
75.0 |
87.8 Marino |
80.1 Aikman |
95.8 2nd Favre |
1995 |
30 |
77.5 |
91.5 Moon |
87.0 Everett |
93.6 3rd Aikman |
1994 |
28 |
76.7 |
84.9 Aikman |
81.6 Humphries |
112.8 1st Young |
1993 |
28 |
74.7 |
84.0 Hebert |
76.3 George |
99.0 2nd Aikman |
1992 |
28 |
72.8 |
83.6 O' Donnell |
77.1 Chandler |
89.5 2nd Aikman |
1991 |
28 |
74.2 |
84.1 Hostetler |
79.3 DeBerg |
97.9 1st Rypien |
1990 |
28 |
75.0 |
90.8 Schroeder |
81.6 Brister |
92.7 4th Simms* |
1989 |
28 |
73.3 |
86.2 Kelly |
76.9 Marino |
112.4 1st Montana |
1988 |
28 |
70.6 |
82.1 Simms |
77.6 Cunningham |
87.9 4th Montana |
1987 |
28 |
72.6 |
83.8 Kelly |
74.2 Moon |
71.0 13th Schroeder* |
1986 |
28 |
71.5 |
85.8 O'Brien |
74.6 Simms |
74.6 11th Simms |
1985 |
28 |
70.7 |
83.6 Kenney |
78.6 Simms |
82.6 7th McMahon |
1984 |
28 |
73.2 |
85.6 Dickey |
78.7 Kemp |
102.9 2nd Montana |
1983 |
28 |
73.1 |
85.6 White |
79.1 Sipe |
82.7 8th Plunkett |
1982 |
28 |
70.6 |
87.3 Todd |
77.5 Jaworski |
91.3 3rd Theisman |
1981 |
28 |
70.5 |
83.9 Bradshaw |
77.3 Theismann |
88.4 4th Montana |
1980 |
28 |
71.3 |
82.4 Danielson |
75.2 Theismann |
72.9 15th Plunkett |
1979 |
28 |
67.8 |
77.7 Zorn |
75.3 Landry |
77.0 8th Bradshaw |
1978 |
28 |
62.1 |
77.0 Morton |
68.9 Tarkenton |
84.7 2nd Bradshaw |
1977 |
28 |
57.8 |
75.2 Stabler |
64.3 Hart |
87.0 2nd Staubach |
1976 |
28 |
63.6 |
79.9 Staubach |
75.4 Fouts |
103.4 1st Stabler |
1975 |
26 |
62.8 |
81.3 Ferguson |
67.4 Stabler |
88.0 4th Bradshaw |
1974 |
26 |
61.4 |
82.1 Tarkenton |
69.4 Namath |
55.2 18th Bradshaw |
1973 |
26 |
61.7 |
86.0 Gabriel |
65.8 Plunkett |
84.3 6th Griese |
1972 |
26 |
63.5 |
78.5 Berry |
71.8 Landry |
91.0 1st Morrall |
1971 |
26 |
59.3 |
75.9 Berry |
67.1 Liske |
104.8 1st Staubach |
1970 |
26 |
62.5 |
78.1 Berry |
71.0 Dawson |
65.1 15th Unitas |
1969 |
16 |
68.6 |
85.4 Jurgensen |
78.5 Kapp |
69.9 N/A Dawson |
1968 |
16 |
65.6 |
86.4 Nelsen |
81.7 Jurgensen |
72.1 N/A Namath |
1967 |
16 |
63.7 |
85.2 Gabriel |
72.7 Ryan |
64.4 8th Starr |
1966 |
15 |
64.2 |
87.7 Meredith |
73.8 Tarkenton |
105.0 1st Starr |
1965 |
14 |
70.2 |
93.7 Bukich |
83.8 Tarkenton |
89.0 4th Starr** |
1964 |
14 |
68.0 |
91.8 Tarkenton |
76.7 Ryan |
76.7 6th Ryan** |
What can we glean from this chart? The first thing that I noticed was just how good the champion QBs have been since basically forever. We talk about how this has become a passing league and how teams now need a top QB more than ever before, but the numbers really don't bear that out. The numbers say you have always needed a pretty good QB to win the Super Bowl. In fact, if anything the most recent years have seen the worst champion QBs. In only six of the last 40 years has the Super Bowl winning QB fallen below the 40th percentile in rank. Two of those six QBs have come in the last six years. Those two QBs, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, came into the Super Bowl with two of the three lowest percentile rankings in the last 50 years of champion QBs, both ranking in the bottom 38% of QBs in their respective years. Only Terry Bradshaw in 1974 was worse.
In 28 of the 50 years the champion QB ranked in the top 20% of quarterbacks. In 21 of the 50 years the champion QB was ranked 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
The eras can be roughly split as follows. From 2003 through the present a great QB wasn't really required, at least as far as being great that particular year was concerned (most ended up being great even if they weren't great the year they won it all). During the most recent decade QBs ranking 8th, 9th, 12th, 20th and 21st won it all. That's 5 out of 10 years where regular season greatness was not a prerequisite.
The 15 years from 1988 through 2002 were quite different. During those 15 years only one QB, Trent Dilfer, ranked worse than 7th, and only four QBs ranked worse than 4th. This was the golden age of needing great QBs to win the big one, a stark contrast to the most recent decade.
The nine years from 1979 through 1987 saw a time when again a great QB was not necessarily required. Six of the nine champions ranked 7th or worse, and only two of the nine ranked in the top 20%. This was an era dominated by legendary defenses and smashmouth football from the likes of the Bears, the Giants and the Redskins. Great QBs were helpful but not required.
Finally we have the 15 years from 1964 through 1978. These were the years of legendary, Hall of Fame QBs. Starr, Unitas, Staubach, Namath, Dawson, Griese, Stabler, Bradshaw - nearly every year the champion was a QB who went on to become a legendary figure in NFL annals. However, not all of them were great in the years they won it. Three QBs in this era ranked below the 40th percentile, and two more, Namath and Dawson, would have ranked below the 40th percentile if they had put up their numbers in the NFL.
What to make of all this? Well, to start, it's difficult to argue that current times require a great QB more than ever to win a championship. In fact, if anything the last 10 years have seen the most underwhelming regular season QB performances by champion QBs out of any time in the last 50 years. What might explain this somewhat surprising phenomenon? The most obvious candidate is simply random statistical noise. It is entirely possible, maybe even probable, that in fact a great QB is needed even more than ever, but the small sample size of the last 10 years simply had a few outliers skew the results.
There is, however, an intriguing alternate explanation. What we have seen happen over the last 50 years has been a slow, steady climb in QB rating. 40 to 45 years ago a QB rating in the low to mid 60s made you an average QB. Today that same QB rating makes you the worst starting QB in football. The improvements have not, however, been achieved equally across the board. What we have actually seen is a major compression in the rankings. That is, the highest rated QBs have barely budged in their QB ratings, while the lowest rated QBs have improved dramatically. So we have top rated QBs in the 60s and 70s clocking in with QB ratings in the triple digits, numbers that would put them at the top of the class even today. But we also have the lower rated QBs coming in with ratings in the low 60s, 50s, even 40s, numbers that today would quickly land a QB a permanent seat on the bench, if not completely out of the league. Bradshaw won a Super Bowl with a QB rating for the year of 55. Starr did it with a 64, Unitas with a 65. Those were not good numbers those years, but neither were they anywhere close to league low. So what we see is a steady, relentless lifting of the bottom of the rankings, with relatively little movement at the top. The result is a situation where even below average QBs are within 15 points of Pro Bowl QBs, something that used to have a 25 or 30 point separation. In short, there is much less difference between the great QBs and the good QBs, and there is much less separation between the good QBs and the merely average QBs. As a result, it is much easier for a merely adequate QB to get hot for a 3 or 4 week playoff run and perform at a level approaching the greats for a short time than it used to be. And maybe, just maybe that situation has made it much more likely that a sub par regular season QB like Eli Manning in 2007 or Ben Roethlisberger in 2008 can rally just long enough to win it all. If so, maybe everybody is taking a slightly skewed look at the QB position. Maybe we have reached an era where there is so little difference among the top half or so of QBs that having a so called elite QB, while clearly still of great importance, is in fact a bit LESS important than it's ever been. Maybe, just maybe, we are already at the point where there are so many good enough QBs that in fact all you need is somebody better than average who gets hot at the right time. If so, then the current narrative that it's never been more important to have an elite QB is simply wrong. In fact, while having an elite QB is still extremely important, perhaps it has never been less important in terms of your chances of winning a Super Bowl. Food for thought for a Jets team constantly starved for elite QB play.
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