New York Jets: The Wet Blanket

Everybody is riding high after that big win. We are all really excited about Geno Smith. The Jets looked great against the Bills. What kind of a Jets fan would try and be a party pooper after that? I'm sorry folks, but I guess that's me.

It's very exciting that the Jets are 2-1. They frankly dominated the Bills when the two teams lined up and played. Is this a sign the Jets are for real, or did we see conditions unlikely to repeat themselves?

We cannot answer the first one for sure. The Jets might be for real. We all hope they are. As far as the second one goes, though, the Jets are probably not going to play at the same level more than once or twice again in 2013 even if they are lucky.

The offense kind of tells this story. We went over how out of context Bilal Powell's game was compared to the rest of his career yesterday. How about Geno Smith? PFF notes Smith completed 5 of 7 passes over 20 yards. That is a clip over 70%. Those rates are simply impossible to sustain. Drew Brees had the most completions on passes that traveled 20 yards last year, and he averaged 2.25 per game. Geno more than doubled that. His completion rate also is unsustainable. Last year there was a single quarterback in the league with over 7 deep completions who topped 53.2%. Unless Geno is ready to become the best deep passer the game has ever seen as a rookie, the Jets simply cannot expect to have as many deep completions as they had against the Bills. They absolutely feasted on Bills cornerback Justin Rogers deep to the tune of 6 completions against for 248 yards.

This isn't to say the season is lost. It's just important to keep in mind that much work remains. The Jets could get away with turnovers because they hit so many big plays to make up for them. That isn't going to be on the table to the same degree the rest of the year. Ideally what will happen is the Jets will still hit an adequate number of deep passes. To make up for the ones they don't hit, Smith needs to eliminate the turnovers and become more accurate in the short game. This is quite possible if he improves the way we all hope he will.

So I'm sorry for being a wet blanket. There is a lot to be excited about. Just remember that one game does not mean the Jets are set. There are still things that need to be fixed, and whether they get fixed or not will determine a lot about this season.