We are stuck in a pattern, win one, lose one, win one, lose one, win one, lose one....and now we come back around to the win one. If the Jets stay true to their pattern we will walk out of Metlife on Sunday night with a victory. The Patriots may be 5-1, but they are beatable.
With the news that Talib is doubtful for the game, the Jets may be able to move the ball through the air a little easier than first imagined. The Patriots are giving up 228.8 yards through the air per game, which is good for 13th best in the league. Where as they are giving up 118.8 yards on the ground, good for just 24th best in the league. You don't need to be an expert to decipher the best area to attack this Patriots team.
Now consider that the Patriots will be without NT Vince Wilfork and LB Jarod Mayo. Both losses are absolutely huge, especially in the run game. Wilfork is a monster in the middle of that line, forcing many teams to run off tackle. The problem with running off-tackle is that the Patriots linebacking unit is very athletic with a lot of range, this based on the performance of All-Pro Jarod Mayo.
Now I'm not saying that because there is no Mayo, the Jets will run all over New England. They do have Brandon Spikes who is one of the best run-defenders out there, and Dont'a Hightower has the ability if he can place it all together. However nobody can say the Patriots became a better run defense team after losing the likes of Wilfork and Mayo.
If you look at Pro Football Focus's statistics, it suggests that the Jets can't run the football off-tackle to the left, or up inside on the right. Instead they need to run between Mangold and Winters, and Colon and Howard. Establishing the run game early will not only force the Patriots to commit more people to the line, it will start to open up throwing lanes for Geno.
Whenever you are starting a rookie QB you should try and establish the run, set the tone. However when you are facing a division rival who have recently lost two of their best, if not their best defenders it becomes even more important. Powell and Ivory will need to go to work, but the offensive line needs to show up, after a horrible showing last week against Pittsburgh they need to take responsibility and give Powell and Ivory some lanes to run through.
Set the run and we will score.