Shonn Greene was a highly rated fantasy running back in 2010. Many had him as either a first or second round pick. To say he was a bust would be accurate. He did not even end up as the top back on his own team. I experienced the pain of picking Greene too early in one of my leagues. The only thing that saved me was getting Arian Foster in the middle rounds.
In theory, Greene is going to take the bulk of the carries for the Jets this year. He was supposed to do so last year. I remain concerned the team will continue to ride LaDainian Tomlinson too hard. Perhaps, though, the coaching staff has learned its lesson and will rely more on Greene.
I think he will go in a more reasonable spot to take that risk than he did a year ago. He has very high upside. There are not many backs out there capable of combining his power with an explosive second gear. Looking for a third back, he seems like a good gamble.
Probably the best analogy I have heard is Matt Forte a year ago. Forte was a high pick in 2009 fantasy leagues and had a very disappointing year. Because he so failed to meet expectations, people got irrationally low on him, and he went way too low for a third year back with his kind of talent in 2010. Forte was not a guarantee, but his youth made him a good bounceback candidate.