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ANY UNDISCOVERED AND UNDRAFTED DIAMONDS THAT FIT INTO THE JETS APPARENT PREFERENCES IN DEFENSIVE LINEMEN. We seem to have found the formula the Jets use in choosing their Defensive Linemen, so are there any Undrafted Free Agents who have the potential to fit the Jets defensive line strategy and perhaps upgrade their Line in the future. My greatest mistake is that when I first started this project, I relied on NFL.com for my list of undrafted prospects, this list was much too restrictive. The use of multidimensional formulas can cut the largest groups of prospects down to a manageable level. The larger the group, the better, and the more likely you will discover that unheralded and little known player who exactly fits your needs. They can be the diamond in the rough that needs to be polished, but can be a very valuable part of your team in the future. These might be the best prospects for the Jets to invite to their Camp for a little competition. The problem with this group of players is that it is too small, they are too well-known, they have been picked over, and very few massive players are now in it. This is more of a test rather than a full-blown run. Drafted players are in brown and of course they are no longer prospects, until they are cut by the team that drafted them, undrafted players who are free agents are in purple.
This chart differs from the previous ones, it was extended to include both of the Jets who were drafted this year, so it includes 76 players, the database includes this years draft class so it includes 268 players of which 247 had complete data for this test. Therefore this is a chart of the top 30.7% of the players, and the top 10% would be the first 25 players. The top 10% includes 6 High Achievement players, 4 Jets, 3 Drafted players, and one undrafted free agent, Cedric Thornton. The top 25% includes 11 High Achievers, 6 Jets, 10 drafted players including Kenrick Ellis, and three undrafted free Agents, Cedric Thornton, Ian Williams, and Martin Parker. The additional 5% (25 to 30.7%) includes 3 High Achievers, 2 Jets, 4 Drafted players including Muhammad Wilkerson, and one undrafted free agent, Ryan Winterswyk. An interesting point, while rumor had the Jets wanting Phil Taylor in the first round of the draft, it turns out according to this formula, Kenrick Ellis taken in the third round is a slightly better fit for Rex's system. Complete Scouting on the four undrafted free agents that fit the Jets defensive line system are below the chart.
We have already evaluated the formula used to generate this chart, PAT KIRWAN'S SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX WHEN A PLAYER'S MASS IS FACTORED IN. We have found this index, to be a somewhat valid guide to success in the NFL. The "M&S&Q" is the formula the Jets seem to use in selecting their Linemen, "J Test 4" is the "M&S&Q" with 40 Yard Dash time considered, "Exp Pwr" is the Explosive Power index, which is one of the most significant indicators of success in the NFL. A score above 91 means the odds of being a High Achiever in the NFL are better than even, although many High Achievers have scores below 91, a prospect's chances are much better if he scores above 91.
Violent hitter with adequate size. Great toughness as he played the entire 2010 season hurt. Good strength at the point of attack. Makes a lot of plays chasing backside. Quick off the snap. Productive pass rusher who made a lot of plays because of his effort. Made plays in several aspects of the game over his last two years.
He had more weaknesses in 2010 as he played hurt and didn’t stand out as much. Would get washed down sometimes and often times would just shoot the gap without reading the play. Slow to shed blocks vs. the run. Has character concerns.
Thornton is a tough prospect to grade as he was hurt all of 2010 making his tape less impressive than as a junior. I think he is going to be a three technique at the next level who could impact when healthy. His stock is in limbo as he possesses late round skills and mid round upside. Because of off the field issues he could go undrafted but his hard working attitude will earn him a roster spot.
Cedric Thornton has not garnered too much national attention after spending some time at Division II Southern Arkansas. Not surprisingly the 6-3, 309 defensive tackle dominated at that level. In 2009 Thornton had a great year, tallying 80 tackles. That is a lot of tackles for any player, but even more impressive for a defensive tackle. An amazing 23 of those tackles came for a loss and Thornton added 8.5 sacks for good measure. He even forced two fumbles and blocked a couple of kicks. By 2010 everybody at the Division II level knew that they had to stop Thornton. They usually could not stop him, but he did miss a couple of games and constant double teams decreased his overall numbers. He still totaled 52 tackles, 13.0 tackles-for-loss and forced yet another fumble.
The big question heading into the pre-draft workouts was whether or not Thornton could compete with the best the FBS had to offer. During the Senior Bowl he had his chance and did quite well. Even when he was beat, which happened a fair amount of times, Thornton got up and prepared to go at it again. His hustle has endured him to some scouts and after beefing up for the NFL combine, Thornton could sneak into the third or fourth round.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY:
Notes: Has two kids. Redshirted in 2006 as a defensive end. In ’07, started 5-of-10 games played and recorded 23 tackles, 7½ tackles for loss and one sack with two batted balls. Moved to defensive tackle in ’08 and saw action in 10 games without a start, recording 33-6½-1 with three batted balls and a forced fumble. Started all 10 games in ’09 and was the team’s leading tackler — produced 80-23½-8½ with two forced fumbles, one interception (28-yard TD return) and two blocked kicks. Started all eight games in which he played in ’10 — was suspended for final two games for violation of team rules. Posted 52-13-1½ with one pass batted down and a forced fumble.
Positives: Looks the part and is functionally strong. Very good size with long arms and big hands. Athletic. Good initial quickness, short-area burst and finishing ability. Plays with a load in his hands and can stack the point. Strong tackler. Plays hard and competes. Scheme-diverse. Lined up inside and outside. Has upside.
Negatives: Raw instincts. Marginal football intelligence and does not have a natural feel for the game. Fooled by misdirection. Does not maintain rush-lane integrity. Unrefined technique — needs to improve hand use. Can do a better job protecting his legs. Could require some extra reps to absorb a complex game plan. Character needs to be investigated.
Summary: Productive, athletic, country-strong small-schooler whose play on a 2-8 team garnered a Senior Bowl invite and he did not look out of place. Is rough around the edges and will require patience but has the length, physical ability and aggressive, competitive temperament to be brought along as a developmental five- or three-technique. Would be best served landing in a strong, veteran locker room where he could be guided and held accountable. Could fit well in Green Bay or Oakland, and versatility could enhance his value.
Positives: Good size… Reasonably athletic… Solid interior rusher… Good burst off the snap… Good length and long arms… Good hand punch… Can get penetration… Flashes good power… Can win some battles for leverage… Good bull rusher… Holds the edge well… Can clog the middle… Good range… Gives a good effort… Plays with intensity… Good but inconsistent motor… Hard hitter… Mean streak… Schematic versatility, fits as a 4-3 UT or 3-4 LDE… Dominated his level of competition… Good upside, has the tools to develop.
Negatives: Not much of an arsenal… Needs to improve lower body strength… Plays a little too upright at times and can be knocked off balance… On the ground too much… Can be engulfed at the point of attack… Inconsistent technique… Conditioning issues, wears down late in games… Character concerns… Was suspended for a drug related arrest in 2009… Missed two games due to suspension for violating team rules in 2010… Lack of competition playing at the division two level… Developmental prospect who could be taken off some boards due to character concerns!
NFL DRAFT 101:
Thornton is a long, high motor guy who actually reminds me of a poor-man’s Wilkerson. He could play 3-technique in a 4-3 defense, or he could flourish as a 5-tech in a 3-4. Either way, I think this guy could make waves once he gets his shot playing with the big boys.
NATIONAL FOOTBALL POST:
Small-school defensive tackle Cedric Thornton from Southern Arkansas has some tools in the shed, but isn’t much more than a developmental-type prospect at this stage for me. From a mental standpoint he lacks ideal awareness off the snap and has a hard time consistently getting off the ball on time. From a physical standpoint he has a good initial burst, can gain leverage as a bull rusher and has some natural power through contact. However, he really struggles to disengage from blocks, allows his pad level to get too high and if he doesn’t win with his initial burst the battle is over. Again, he’s far from a finished product, but he doesn’t show enough in my view to warrant much more than a later-round grade
Positives: Good initial burst off the line… Good short area mobility… Very solid power… Gets into opponents quickly… Plays with reasonably good leverage… Uses his hands well… Can get occasional push with bull rush… Plays the run well… Very solid anchor in the middle… Does an adequate job shooting gaps… Can occupy double teams… Stay at home run stopper… Chases the action… Good tackler… Good range… Good leader… Good instincts and awareness… Good motor… 3-4 NT candidate, though a bit undersized.
Negatives: Lacks explosion… Doesn’t get in the backfield very much… Not a great penetrator or pocket collapser… Shorter than ideal arms… Had not recorded a sack prior to this season… Not much of an arsenal… Plays a little too high… Needs to get a little stronger in lower body… Does not have much room left to add bulk… Gets a lot of plays off… Two-down run stuffer… Missed four games with torn MCL this season.
Pros: His run defense and his instincts are what stick out most about Williams. He uses his hands and arms well by being able to keep blockers away from his frame, uses a good punch, and gets his arms up in passing lanes. Gets a good jump on the snap. He’s impressive at shedding blocks and making tackles on the rusher. He’s also a sure tackler.
Cons: He isn’t much of a pass rusher. Even though he’s quick for his size, Williams doesn’t get to the quarterback often. He gets swallowed up by double teams and rarely gets through them. He’s only a two down player, taken out on passing downs.
Thoughts: He seems to be a little out of place playing nose guard for the Irish since his strength is his quickness, not his pure strength. Williams doesn’t overpower blockers, but he does just well enough to take on double teams and allow his teammates to make plays. I don’t think he’ll be able to play nose guard in the NFL, but 3-4 defensive end or 4-3 defensive tackle seems more right for him.
NATIONAL FOOTBALL POST:
A natural bender who can really coil up into his stance and fire off the football, generating initial leverage for himself on contact. Is an undersized nose, but does a nice job extending his arms into blocks and using his suddenness to slip opposing linemen in space and make his way toward the football on plays away from his frame. Plays with a good motor and demonstrates above-average range in pursuit. Gets into opposing linemen quickly with his good first step and is consistently one of the first linemen moving off the ball. Nevertheless, he isn’t real laterally gifted as a pass rusher and isn’t much more than a push/pull guy, which really limits what he can do on third down.
Lacks great power in his lower half and really struggles to push the pocket as a bull rusher and can be sealed easily from the football inside. But, possesses above-average anchor strength on contact vs. the double team, with the quickness to gain an initial advantage in order to be effective getting up the field. However, can be engulfed on contact too easily at times as a pass rusher and will struggle to fight his way through opposing linemen once they get their hands on him.
Impression: Plays with leverage and has a good first step to his game, but looks nothing more than a reserve guy to me.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY:
Notes: Tallied 45 tackles, 1½ for loss and zero sacks in 12 games (started the final two games at nose tackle) as a true freshman in 2007. Started 7-of-13 games at nose tackle in ’08, posting 40-2-0 with one pass breakup. Started 8-of-12 games at nose tackle in ’09 and notched 39-6-0 with one batted pass and one interception. Made nine starts at nose tackle in ’10 and posted 38-3½-1½ with one batted pass and one interception. Suffered a torn MCL in his left knee against Navy and missed the rest of the regular season (four games) before returning for the Sun Bowl against Miami. Played for three different coordinators in four years. Was a 21-year-old senior.
Positives: Thickly built with bulk strength to hold his ground inside — barrel-chested with robust lower body. Plays with natural leverage and a load in his hands — jolts defenders and can stack and shed. Fine two-gap ability — keeps his shoulders square to the line and compresses running lanes. Good tackler. Smart and competitive. Played more consistently as a senior.
Negatives: Lacks ideal height and cannot disrupt passing lanes. Frame appears close to maxed. Tight in the hips. Does not have long arms and can get locked up — is not quick to disengage and lacks counters. Limited foot quickness and agility to make plays outside a short area. Not sudden, explosive or slippery to play in gaps. Does not offer pass-rush value and is strictly a bull rusher. Not a motivated self starter and has underachiever traits.
Summary: Short, stout, two-down plugger capable of shading the center and clogging running lanes. Effectiveness wanes the further he strays from a phone booth, but shows pop in his punch, consistent leverage and the ability to occupy blocks. Should be able to make a fine living doing just that if he is motivated.
THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL REPORT:
Stengths-Good natural strength and leverage. Wide bodied low to the ground nose tackle. Flashes good quickness off the snap and delivers a strong punch. Does a good job tying up blockers. Is a solid tackler with good discipline. Rarely gets turned around. Flashes the hands to shed blocks and make plays in a short area. Shows good football awareness.
Weaknesses-Poor height and arm length. Is not a creative pass rusher. Inconsistent as a penetrator. Hot and cold motor. Not much of a burst. Does not show the ability to chase down play from behind. Has a torn MCL under his belt.
NFR Draft Analysis-Williams was a 3 year starter at a major college program. He will likely never be more than a 2 down NT in a 3-4 system. Still, players with Williams size and skill set are hard to find. Williams should be a 4th round pick in the 2011 NFL draft.
Strengths: Two-gap nose tackle has the anchor and lower-body strength to hold up against double-team. Aware of the play in the backfield, works his way off his block to chase plays when run to the other side of the line. Flashes nimble feet through trash inside. Can disengage from linemen with strong hands, occasionally spinning to get free. Capable of popping into his man's jersey to keep from getting moved off the line. Swallows backs with his girth when he closes up a gap, and has the strength to knock down smaller backs with an arm tackle. Chase and hustle are impressive, will help linebackers make stops at the second level and takes deep angles to chase down running backs down the sideline.
Weaknesses: Does not provide much initial pass rush but can prevent quarterbacks from stepping up into the pocket and gives effort to reach the passer until the ball is away. Lacks closing speed. Too short to affect passing lanes. Not mobile or explosive enough to get outside on stunts or twists. Often replaced in obvious passing situations. Adequate get-off for a run-stopping nose tackle, but does not have elite quickness to beat NFL interior linemen off the snap as a penetrator. Rarely dominates better linemen with his bull rush. Will not be a productive tackler outside of the box at the next level.
CONSENSUS DRAFT SERVICES:
In 2008, he played in 16 games and started 15 starts, racking up 56 tackles, 8 TFLs, and 4 sacks. In 2009, he was named 2nd-tam All-CAA and finished 13th overall in the voting for the 2009 Buck Buchanan Award. He was also named a First Team All-American by College Sporting News. Again started all 13 games and notched 75 tackles, including team-highs in TFLs (15.5), sacks (6.5) and QB hurries (10). In 2010, he was second on the team in tackles with the unheard of tally (for a DT) of 96, and added 13.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks, a breakup, 9 hurries, a FF and a blocked kick. Parker’s draft stock soared after he was named the Defensive MVP of the Shrine Bowl; he was also a FCS 1st Team All American and 1st Team All-CAA. Parker led all CAA defensive lineman in tackles this year (8.7 per game), and was second in the league in sacks and tackles for loss, for all defensive players. At the Shrine bowl he recorded two sacks and forced a fumble. Parker is great at getting after the QB and has the speed and power to get around the OL.
Very active and mobile. Very seasoned 4-year starter who has been very durable and has amassed a crazy number of tackles (288) for a college DT. Tackles very well (obviously.) Lowest man in on most plays. Quick off the snap and wins with quickness. Good stamina and can stay in there. Penetrator on the pass rush. A general P-I-T-A who is very disruptive. Runs well. Can make tackles even while being blocked and/or moving backwards. Can bounce around and over trash to the play. Bounces up when he gets knocked down. Could be converted to a strongside 4-3 DE, but for his lack of length.
Not very big. Right now he is a 4-3 UT only who must be paired with a wide body. Loses when he gets turned or gets high. Can be blown off the ball by elite NFL OGs. Doesn't always protect his legs and gets gut a lot and is on the ground too much. Hand fights a bit too much, and needs to disengage, especially when playing laterally. Will be neutralized by the double team. Would not even be on some teams' draft boards because of their schemes.
The 2010 All-American (96 tackles, 13.5 for loss, 5.5 sacks) earned a spot on the East-West Shrine Game roster after the season, and proved that he belonged with strength and quickness and surprised scouts when weighing in at 300 pounds. His game MVP performance included two early sacks. In a deep defensive tackle class, Parker is the type of mid-round pick likely to surprise early in his career.
Strengths: Active player with quick hands and feet. Gives guards at the FCS level all they can handle on every snap with a strong punch and high motor. Controls linemen when balanced, able to use violent hands to disengage and attack ballcarriers before they reach him. Has grown into a legitimate NFL three-technique body during his career. Nimble feet and solid balance give him enough change of direction ability to force mobile quarterbacks and elusive ballcarriers at least into the arms of teammates, if he does not use his long arms to securely wrap them up (which he usually does once in the immediate vicinity).
Weaknesses: Could anchor more consistently against double-teams and stronger single blocks. Only flashes a bull rush, will not push better NFL linemen into the pocket. Gets high off the snap at times, can be moved down the line by zone blockers to allow cutback lanes. Will provide interior pressure, not a ton of sacks, because he lacks elite closing speed.
Positives: "Productive small school defensive lineman with average size/speed numbers for the next level. Displays good movement skills, fluid down the line of scrimmage and displays a burst of speed to the play. Uses his hands well, keeps his feet moving and covers a good amount of area on the field. Gets off the snap with a quick first step, quick changing direction or immediately alters his angle of attack to chase the action."
Negatives: "Does not consistently play with good pad level, gets tall and makes himself an easy target for opponents. Easily knocked off balance by the first block or handled by a single opponent. Marginal skill in pursuit."
Analysis: Parker was a top defender at Richmond the past three seasons and is a solid NFL prospect that offers a good amount of upside. He's best suited to play on a four-man line and has the movement skills necessary to be used as a three technique lineman.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY
Notes: Redshirted in 2006. Started all 14 games at the three-technique in ’07, producing 61 tackles, nine tackles for loss and three sacks with three forced fumbles. Started 15-of-16 games at three-technique in ’08, producing 56-8-4 with three passes batted down and a forced fumble in ’08. Manned the nose for the I-AA champs in ’09 when he started all 13 games and totaled 75-15½-6½ with one batted pass and two forced fumbles. Tied for the tackles lead amongst FCS defensive linemen in ’10 when he started all 11 games and piled up 96-13½-5½ with one batted pass, a forced fumble and a blocked kick. Team captain. Wore jersey No. 55 prior to junior season. Earned Defensive MVP recognition at the East-West Shrine Game.
Positives: Thickly built with good size and length — has long arms. Runs and moves well for a 300-pounder and is slippery and savvy escaping blocks. Can open up his stride in pursuit and shows good range for a big man. Highly productive tackler. Confident. Experienced, four-year starter for a top FCS program. Good personal and football character — coachable, works hard and puts in the time to improve. Studies the game.
Negatives: Tight-hipped and tends to raise out of his stance and play upright — too easily engaged and washed down the line. Does not dig in vs. the double-team. Needs to improve hand use and develop counter moves — is slow to disengage. Does not play with pop or power in his hands. Average spin move. Does not generate lower-body explosion. Inconsistent. Quirky (but likable). Needs more time in the weight room and more glass in his diet — game lacks violence and a mean streak.
Summary: Helped himself at the East-West Shrine Game, prompting evaluators to revisit his tape, but does not physically dominate inferior competition or exhibit a trench warrior mentality. Is too big and too light on his feet with too much production not to be given an opportunity, but could require patience.
Strengths: Parker has great size and deceptive speed. Well balanced player with a quick first step and the range to make plays outside of the tackle box. Locates the ball quickly and possesses active hands to shed and has the closing burst to get after the quarterback.
Weaknesses: Plays too high at times and can get blown off the ball. Does not have the lower body strength to anchor against double teams. Struggles with snap anticipation limiting his ability to get into solid initial position. Gets gassed too easily and effort is inconsistent at the end of games.
4) RYAN WINTERSWYK, DE, BOISE ST, SCOUTING REPORT
As a redshirt freshman in 2007, the 6-4 defensive end totaled 43 tackles, 9.0 tackles-for-loss, 5.5 sacks and four pass breakups. As a sophomore, he tallied 11.5 tackles-for-loss and 4.5 sacks. Winterswyk again showed his versatility by breaking up six passes. As a result he garnered first-team All-WAC accolades. The first-team All-Conference honors would continue for the next two seasons. In 2009 he totaled 41 tackles, 17.0 tackles-for-loss and nine sacks. During his senior season Winterswyk's numbers took a hit due to double teams, but he still managed to tally 44 tackles, 9.0 tackles-for-loss and 2.5 sacks. Winterswyk lacks the speed to be a dominating force in the NFL. He has plenty of size, but he needs to add some strength and find a way to increase his speed or develop more effective pass rushing moves that will work at the next level.
PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY:
Played all 13 games in ’07, starting five, and recorded 43 tackles, nine for loss and 5½ sacks with four passes batted down. A knee scope kept him out of the ’08 season opener and prevented him from starting in Week Two, but he started 11-of-12 games played and posted 40-11½-4½ with six batted balls and two forced fumbles. Started all 27 games his final two seasons — registered 41-17-9 with one batted pass and a blocked field-goal attempt in ’09 (14 games) and 44-9-2½ with two batted passes, one interception, one forced fumble and a blocked kick in ’10, when he also played some snaps at tight end because of injuries.
Positives: Oustanding size. Strong, active hands — works to free himself up. Instinctive. Battles against the run. Flattens down the line and chases hard from the backside. Great effort and intensity stands out on tape. Football-smart and understands defensive concepts. Confident and competitive. Durable. Solid personal and football character — a hardworking, coachable leader.
Negatives: Needs to get stronger — did only 18 bench-press reps of 225 pounds at the Combine. Ordinary get-off — unexplosive first step, short second step and does not threaten with edge burst. Limited twitch and foot speed. Average bend, body control, agility and change of direction. Tight hips and shoulders. Pile jumper. Marginal sack production and too much of his tackle production is effort-based.
Positives: Reasonably good quickness... Uses his hands well... Plays with reasonably good leverage... Sheds reasonably well... Good swim move... Good closing speed... Solid against the run... Makes plays in the backfield... Holds the edge well... Maintains containment... Sees quite a few double teams... Good tackler... Tough... Competitive... Aggressive... Hard worker... Relentless... Good motor... Steady... Reliable... Former walk-on... Blue collar... Durable, missed just one game in four seasons (knee injury, 2008)... Got some reps as a tight end in short yardage plays... Selected All-WAC first team for the 2008, 2009 and 2010 seasons... Looks more athletic on film than he showed at the combine, might get some looks as a 3-4 OLB... He is a gamer.
Negatives: Lacks explosion... Lacks good initial burst... Arms are shorter than ideal... Lacks strength and bulk... Marginal arsenal of moves... Not especially strong at the point of attack... Marginal flexibility and change of direction agility... Can be pushed away from the action... Very straight-line type of athlete... Plays too high at times... Managed just 1.5 sacks in 2010... Not a workout guy, ran just a 5.02-40 at the combine... Lack of competition playing in the WAC.
CONSENSUS DRAFT SERVICES:
"Blue-collar" walk-on who has been named 1st Team All-WAC for 3 straight seasons. High-energy, total-effort player who is 4th all-time in TFLs (44.5) and 5th in sacks (21.5)at Boise State. Shrine Bowl and combine invitee.
Non-stop, hard-working player who never takes a play off. Great attitude, work-ethic and constant effort on the field translate into exceptional play. Has been able to 'make the most' of his skill set.
Size and mass are under what is typically seen in an NFL defensive end. Concern about level of competition, his lower production this year, coupled with concerns about his burst may result in an overall unfavorable grade from many teams.
Winterswyk does not have the power, speed or athleticism to start in the NFL. However, he's a hard-worker with good instincts and a great motor who does his job and could be a backup strong side defensive end in a 4-3 front. Stays in position, sets the edge and holds outside contain, finds the football, and can bring down a ball-carrier. But overall athleticism is lacking. Won't consistently pressure the quarterback, can't take on the double team, and won't make plays on the backside. Winterswyk steadily improved and was very productive in college.
Winterswyk has good size. Does a good job maintaining outside contain and shows enough strength to hold up at the point at times. Displays good on-field awareness. Finds the football quickly. Productive in college. Plays with a relentless motor. Hard worker who went from walk-on to starter.
Does not have adequate speed, fluidity or range and strength is only adequate. Doesn't have the get off to turn the corner at the next level. Needs to use his hands more to disengage. Does not possess the range to make plays in pursuit. Not scheme-versatile.
ANY UNDISCOVERED AND UNDRAFTED DIAMONDS THAT FIT INTO THE JETS APPARENT PREFERENCES IN DEFENSIVE LINEMEN, WHO CAN ALSO UPGRADE THE SPEED OF THE DEFENSIVE LINE. We seem to have found the formula the Jets use in choosing their Defensive Linemen, but the Jets defensive line is very slow. So are there any Undrafted Free Agents who have the potential to fit the Jets defensive line strategy and upgrade the speed of their line. These might be the most interesting prospects for the Jets to invite to their Camp for a little competition.
The Jets line is so slow so that they have no players in the top 10% of players in the list of top players according to PAT KIRWAN'S SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX WHEN BOTH A PLAYER'S MASS AND 40 YARD TIME ARE FACTORED IN. The top Jets player was Sione Pouha at number 30, and there were 7 drafted players but no undrafted free agents above him. I will begin this chart with Sione Pouha and continue it until the small grouping of Jets at position 75 t0 80. You should note that most of the undrafted free agents on this chart also have a mass less then the Jets seem to like. Because of this, the Jets may choose to consider using them as Outside Linebackers, although they played Defensive Ends in college. "M&S&Q" is the Kirwan's Speed & Quickness Index With Player's Mass, which is the formula the Jets seem to like. "J Test" is this test with the 10 yard split time considered. It should be noted the same undrafted free agents as in the chart above finished well in this test. The "J Test 4" is the basic index, M&S&Q, with the 40 yard dash time factored in. Mo Wilkerson, Kris Jenkins and Mike Devito and all grouped in with the undrafted players but they all have a mass which is substantially more.
"Bio: Started 11 games as a junior and put up 48/8/2. Had 33/4.5/1.5 as a sophomore with two starts.
Positive: Relatively athletic defensive lineman who goes hard after the action. Plays with good pad level and is rarely off his feet. Keeps his feet moving up the field, flashes speed off the edge, and possesses solid explosion. Gets off the snap with a quick first step and fluid changing direction.
Negative: Easily locked up at the point by a single blocker. Shows no moves disengaging from blocks and is inconsistent with his hands. Marginal skill in pursuit.
Analysis: Parr decided to forgo his last year in college after one productive season. He is an undeveloped prospect with average upside. Parr offers some growth possibilities and could make back-up as a three-technique tackle or two-gap end."
CONSENSUS DRAFT SERVICES:
"Strengths: Great size, with room to grow. Could easily carry 300 pounds and be a proto-type 3-4 DE candidate. Gives good, consistent effort. Can be fairly disruptive as a pass rusher. Can get up and bat down passes. Can block kicks. Has enough size potential to be viewed as a solid POA 5-tech, but isn't quite there yet.
Weaknesses: Still has a long ways to go in terms of his technique. Has to stay lower (or get to the corner faster) in order to avoid being locked and blocked on the pass rush. Everything right now is based on future potential and projection, not on actual production, or proven value. He should be blocking more pass attempts, getting better pressure, blocking more kicks, etc., than he has been doing, and he is going to have to sit on a practice squad and develop his strength and technique to have any shot of fulfilling his considerable long-term potential.
Projection: One of the true wildcards of the 2001 NFL draft. Not a lot of fans know much about him, but trust us, NFL scouts are fully aware there is a legit 3-4 DE candidate out there in the wings, and those guys are always highly valued.
OURLADS SCOUTING SERVICES:
Junior entry. Started 13 games. A developmental prospect who could have used another year in school. A good athlete with a quick first step. A five technique defensive end in a three man front. Must work to keep his pad level down. Needs more technique and strength to stop and stack in the run game at him. Inconsistent leverage on blocks. Needs more pass rushing technique or may be a run player only. Flashes good hand use and grab strength at times. A developmental player with measurables.
Positives: "Relatively athletic defensive lineman who goes hard after the action. Plays with good pad level and is rarely off his feet. Keeps his feet moving up the field, flashes speed off the edge, and possesses solid explosion. Gets off the snap with a quick first step and fluid changing direction."
Negatives: Easily locked up at the point by a single blocker. Shows no moves disengaging from blocks and is inconsistent with his hands. Marginal skill in pursuit.
Analysis: Parr decided to forgo his last year in college after one productive season. He is an undeveloped prospect with average upside. Parr offers some growth possibilities and could make back-up as a three-technique tackle or two-gap end.
Bair is a similar-looking prospect to former Washington State star Rien Long. Bair primarily lines up at defensive tackle, but his long frame makes it unlikely he'll play that position in the NFL. With greater strength, Bair could develop into an ideal 3-4 defensive end.
Positives: Good initial quickness off the snap. Consistently among the first linemen off the ball. Good upper-body strength and leg drive to bull-rush blockers into the pocket. Active hands and a variety of moves (club, rip, swim) to disengage from the blocker. Long arms, which he uses well to keep blockers away from his jersey. Cognizant defender who uses his long arms to limit passing lanes, knocking down eight passes in 2010. Provides a strong initial pop to the blocker. Locates the football quickly and works his way to the action. Holds his ground against one-on-one blocking surprisingly well despite his long frame. Plays with good knee bend to maintain leverage and anchor in the running game. Good upper-body strength to seal and protect the edge when asked to play outside.
Negatives: Some view him as a 'tweener lacking the upfield speed to play defensive end and the strength and leverage to remain inside at defensive tackle. Is a good, not great athlete. Only marginal lateral agility and straight-line speed to react to scrambling quarterbacks and other ballcarriers on the perimeter and downfield. Plays hard, but his long legs get him caught up in the trash. Doesn't possess the balance or change-of-direction agility to handle quick athletes in space. Doesn't show a great deal of explosiveness as a hitter. Will enter the NFL as a 26-year old rookie as he spent two years on an LDS mission between high school and the start of his playing career at Oregon.
OVERVIEW: Bair is a college defensive tackle but will not be able to hold up inside at the next level. We see him as a developmental 3-4 defensive end prospect with length and grow potential. He struggles to hold his ground at the line and takes too long to disengage but does provide some value tracking down plays with good range. Shows good quickness off the ball rushing the passer, the potential to develop some effective moves, and the straight-lined speed to close but will never offer much as a bull rusher.
STRENGTHS: Bair possess great height and length. Can gain good position with his solid get off. Has the feet and mobility to make some tackles outside the box. Can arrive at the quarterback if he beats his man cleanly with quickness and has enough burst to close. Bats down passes. Solid motor.
WEAKNESSES: Lacks the strength, power, or bulk to hold up at the point of attack. Complete mismatch when asked to take on a double team. Despite length, does not effectively stack, shed and redirect to the ball-carrier. Will not collapse the pocket with power moves and struggles to disengage for second effort rush.
OURLADS SCOUTING SERVICES:
Two-year starter who plays defensive tackle, but projects as a 3-4 defensive end. Has the frame to carry more weight. Great effort player who gets push up front. Good awareness to get his hands up in the passing lanes. Will compete. A better athlete than he gets credit for. He must work to keep his pad level down. Has a wiry type strength. A developmental defensive end.
Biography: "Two-year starter awarded all-Conference honors as a senior, putting up a career-best numbers of 47/16/3. Junior totals included 45/8.5/2."
Positives: "Athletic defensive lineman with the ability to play tackle or two-gap end. Plays with good leverage for a tall lineman, displays solid first-step quickness, and is strong at the point. Uses his hands to protect himself, holds his ground against blocks, and gets leverage on opponents. Flashes force up the field, quickly changes direction, and keeps his feet moving on contact. Competitive and works hard until the whistle blows. Smart and plays with good awareness."
Negatives: Lacks bulk on the inside and can be controlled by single blocker. Is an average pass rusher.
Analysis: "Bair showed great progress the past two seasons. After a good week of practices at the Shrine Game, he turned in a solid performance during the combine. Bair will start off at the next level as a rotational lineman and will only get better as he physically matures and becomes stronger."
NATIONAL FOOTBALL POST:
A unique defensive lineman who plays inside in the Oregon 4-3 defense but lacks the type of girth to consistently anchor when run at. However, displays good natural flexibility in his lower half, can sit into his stance and has an above-average first step for his size when asked to shoot gaps and make his way up the field. Does a nice job uncoiling his long arms quickly off the snap and can keep his pad level down initially through contact. Now, lacks the type of power to be a real effective bull rusher and when his initial push is stalled, he struggles to remain in the play.
Does a nice job for the most part using his hands to generate leverage into contact, extending his arms and shedding blocks inside. Isn't a real gifted athlete, struggles to redirect and side step blocks, and is much more effective using his length to get into opposing blockers and disengage. Is routinely one of the first defensive linemen moving off the snap, consistently getting good jumps inside and dictating to blocks on contact.
Impression: He really does possess good bend and flexibility for a guy his size. Doesn't have the girth or power to hold up inside at the next level. But I think he has enough athleticism, strength and uses his hands well enough to get a long look as a potential roster guy as a 3-4 DE, if he continues to mature and fill his frame out.
Positives: Reasonably athletic... Explosive... Long arms... Fires off the ball... Reasonably good burst off the edge... Good bend on the corner... Solid flexibility and body control... Good technique... Active versus the run... Good change of direction agility... Solid in pursuit... Does not drop into coverage often but looks solid when he does... Plays well in space... High energy... Good motor... Durable, has not missed a collegiate game in four seasons... Team high 9.5 sacks in 2009 despite not starting a game... Former OLB, has a shot in the NFL as a 3-4 outside linebacker... The second cousin of Dwight Freeney.
Negatives: Relies too much on his speed... Lacks snap instincts... Limited arsenal... Lacks counter moves... Gets a little too upright in his pass rush... Not real strong at the point of attack... Lacks power... Can be controlled if opponent gets his hands on him first... Very straight-line type of athlete... A bit of a one-trick pony, situational pass rusher at the next level... Can be run at... Just a half sack in 2010 (season opener vs. Norfolk State)... Has his best games against inferior competition, all but three sacks in 2009 came against Texas Southern, Florida International and Howard... Has limited starting experience, played behind Jamaal Westerman and George Johnson prior to his senior season.
Biography: "Two-year starter with totals of 38/7/.5 as a senior after his all-Conference campaign in 2009, when he posted 33/12/9.5."
Positives: "Undersized college pass rusher who will get consideration at outside linebacker in the NFL. Breaks down well, bends his knees, and is fluid off the snap. Quickly gets up the field, displays the ability to immediately change direction, and gets out to the sidelines making plays. Occasionally stood up over tackle and shows ability off the line of scrimmage on zone blitzes."
Negatives: "Lacks bulk, controlled at the point by a single blocker, and easily disrupted by opponents. Coming off a disappointing senior season."
Analysis: Freeny is an explosive pass rusher who has shown the ability to penetrate the line of scrimmage and disrupt opponents in the past. He offers potential as a pass rush specialist at the next level yet must make his mark on special teams.
Jonathan Freeny is an explosive college pass rusher who possesses great first step quickness. Fast off the edge, he also shows skill in backside pursuit. Undersized at 238 pounds, he will get looks at outside linebacker.
NATIONAL FOOTBALL POST:
An explosive pass rusher who really coils up into his stance well and can fire off the snap. Possesses a lean, rangy body with long arms, but needs to do a better job of getting off the snap count more consistently. Improved as the season went on, but when this guy gets off the ball on time he’s very tough for opposing tackles to reach off the edge. Now, he’s still learning how to use his hands, as he consistently only extends his left hand into blocks when trying to flatten out around the corner. However, he does exhibit good body control when dropping his pad level and accelerating around the edge. But, needs to do a better job of keeping his pad level down initially into blocks, as too often he exposes his chest, doesn’t use his hands well to keep himself clean and allows blockers to get into his frame and dictate to him on contact.
Is more of a linear pass rusher at this stage who has the first step to fire up the field inside of opposing tackles and create initial penetration. But again, gets upright the further he has to fight his way though a block and eventually can be anchored against. Now, he does have the body control to cleanly change directions and accelerate, which is evident when asked to stunt, but he just doesn’t have a real grasp on any type of counter move at this stage and is just more of a one-trick pony right now. Lacks power vs. the run game and can be easily sealed/driven off the ball when run at. As of now, doesn’t seem like a guy capable of playing as an every-down defensive lineman and looks more like a nickel rusher only at this stage.
Impression: Has the kind of first step that can’t be ignored, as he knows how to reach the edge and put pressure on the corner. However, he needs to develop some type of counter move and continue to work on getting off the snap count on time. But could end up finding a role at the next level as a pass-rushing specialist in either a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme.
LOOKING FOR UNDISCOVERED DIAMONDS USING "EXPLOSIVE MASS 1" BASED ON THE 40 YARD DASH TIME (1 Exp Mass 40). Earlier I stated "'Explosive Mass 1' is related to success in the NFL. The top 50 players includes a total of 16 High achievement players or 50% of all the High Achievers are in what approximates the top quartile of my database. Only Jarron Gilbert of the Jets is in the top 50 players." The "J Test 4" and " M&S&Q" while indicative of the type of players the Jets prefer, do not give any weight to strength which is, as we have seen, is very significant for determining the probability of success in the NFL. I use " Explosive Mass 1" rather the "Explosive Power" since it factors in speed which is something the Jets need to upgrade.
The Three undrafted players in the top fifty who seem to be interesting and the Jets should take a look at in camp, even if only to evaluate their possibilities as Outside Linebackers in the Jets defensive scheme: one, JONATHAN FREENY has already been described. Of the to others, MARC SCHIECHL seems to be the more interesting as a very unusual prospect who I am surprised went undrafted. The third one, EDDIE JONES, is difficult to get a handle on since he was plagued by health issues, although he did not miss a game because of them. Because so many of the prospects available to the Jets are likely to be converted Outside Linebacker, in the next part of this study, I am going to jump to evaluating them. This is because it look like it will soon be possible to sign Free Agents and this is the area of greatest need for the Jets.
1) MARC SCHIECHL, COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES SCOUTING REPORTS:
Few players in this draft class can match the production of Schiechl, setting the Division II record with 46 career sacks and finishing fourth in the division's history with 70.5 tackles for loss. Even though that production came against a lower level of competition, there is enough to like about his game to see why scouts are intrigued. This multi-year, multi-outlet All-American lacks the size to hold up at defensive end at the next level, but he displays all of the traits a 3-4 team would appreciate in a strong-side linebacker. The strength (38 reps) and overall athleticism he displayed for scouts after the season only cemented his status as a late-round prospect capable of having a long NFL career.
Positives: Situated all over the line, playing inside at three-technique because of his relative strength, as well as head-up and outside either tackle. Very good bull rush against larger tackles, carries them into backfield with strong hands under their pads and strong lower-body action. Also forces tackles upfield to get inside lane on occasion. Defeats two or three blocks to reach the quarterback at times, relentless when the ball is in his area. Quick hands at the line of scrimmage, rips hard enough to disengage from offensive linemen whether man-up inside or moving laterally on stretch plays. Nice hustle downfield. Intelligent player, sniffs out screen passes and stays home on misdirection.
Negatives: Does a lot of damage against lower-quality offensive linemen he won't see at the next level. Lacks bend or a variety of pass-rush moves, relies on bull rush and wide stances that won't be nearly as effective next season. Average closing speed for a pass rusher. Inconsistent defeating cut blocks with his hands. Only adequate anchor to hold the point against NFL tackles. Fair change of direction skills, but will need to prove himself quick and agile enough to track down NFL ballcarriers.
Marc Schiechl hails from the Colorado School of Mines. Schiechl recorded 46.0 sacks for the Orediggers, which is good for a .97 SRAM, higher than every edge rusher in the data set save for Terrell Suggs and Robert Mathis. Although he had only average workout numbers from his pro day -— he had a 35-inch vertical and a 4.50 shuttle -- his freakish production is hard to ignore, even though it came at the Division II level. Although Schiechl is a long shot who may not even get drafted, his profile is similar to Division I-AA prospects such as Mathis and Jared Allen, whose stellar production at small schools foreshadowed similar success at the NFL level.
Bio: Three-year starter awarded all-Conference honors since his sophomore season and named an All-American the past two years. Senior totals included 66/19/12 after putting up totals of 58/13/7 as a junior. Posted 13.5 sacks and 21 tackles for loss as a sophomore. Ended his college career as the NCAA Division II career leader in sacks with 46.
Positive: Relatively athletic college defensive end who makes a tremendous amount of plays behind the line of scrimmage. Plays with good lean, gets off the snap with a nice first step and displays an array of moves with his hands to protect himself. Quickly changes direction, fluid moving in every area of the field, and easily gets out to the sidelines in pursuit of the action. Can bend off the edge and keeps his feet moving up the field. Smart, intense football player who does more than just pin his ears back and drive up the field. Occasionally lined up as a two-gap end. Adequate skills moving in reverse on zone blitzes.
Negative: Out-positioned or controlled at the point by blockers once engaged by linemen. Takes a lot of wide angles around opponents. Lacks an explosive closing burst.
Analysis: Schiechl was a tremendous small school defender and has enough athleticism to play at the next level as a one-gap defensive end or 3-4 outside linebacker.
Biography: Three-year starter awarded all-Conference honors since his sophomore season and named an All-American the past two years. Senior totals included 66/19/12 after putting up totals of 58/13/7 as a junior. Posted 13.5 sacks and 21 tackles for loss as a sophomore. Ended his college career as the NCAA Division II career leader in sacks with 46.
Negatives: Out-positioned or controlled at the point by blockers once engaged by linemen. Takes a lot of wide angles around opponents. Lacks an explosive closing burst.
Analysis: Schiechl was a tremendous small school defender and has enough athleticism to play at the next level as a one-gap defensive end or 3-4 outside linebacker.
DON BANKS > INSIDE THE NFL, SPORTS ILLUSTRATED:
The cause of the undrafted player in the NFL got another couple poster-child candidates last season when rookie running backs LeGarrette Blount and Chris Ivory wound up leading their teams in rushing despite never hearing their names called from the podium in New York City. But it happens every year that way in the NFL in some form or fashion...
Somebody's going to find a roster spot for Marc Schiechl, an undersized (6-2, 260 pounds) defensive end who can rush the passer all game, every game. NFL teams will stand him up over tackle as a situational rush linebacker, a role the small-school senior playmaker will be well-suited for after breaking the NCAA's Division II career sack record last season with 46, and finishing fourth all-time with 70½ tackles for loss. Schiechl reminds some of Chiefs linebacker Andy Studebaker, a sixth-round pick of the Eagles in 2008. Studebaker, a product of Wheaton (Ill.) College, has carved out a decent three-year NFL career for himself after transitioning from a similar play-making role as an undersized defensive end in college.
EDDIE JONES, TEXAS, SCOUTING REPORTS:
Fifth-year defensive end who has appeared in 38 career games … also has seen action on special teams … has recorded 59 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 14 TFL, 25 pressures, two INTs, three PBD and a forced fumble … appeared in 14 games at defensive end and on special teams in 2009 … compiled 23 tackles (16 solo), five sacks, seven TFL, 14 pressures, an INT, which he returned for a TD, and a forced fumble … appeared in all 13 games at defensive end and on special teams in 2008 … notched eight tackles, a sack, five TFL, five pressues and a PBD … saw action in 11 games at defensive end and on special teams in 2007 … posted 28 tackles, 1.5 sacks, two TFL, six pressures, an INT and two PBD … gained valuable experience working on the scout team as a redshirt in 2006 … a USA Today first-team All-American as a prepster … was a three-sport letterman in high school … a member of UT's Athletics Director's Honor Roll (Spring 2009).
THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION:
Jones is a potential mid-round pick that may have helped his draft stock with a standout performance in the NFLPA All-Star game in February, when he tackled Damien Berry of Miami at the 1-yard line in the final minute as Team Texas escaped with a 13-7 win over Team Nation. Jones, who earned honorable mention All-Big 12 honors his senior season at Texas, played in 50 of 52 games in his career despite dealing with shoulder and ankle injuries, and undergoing at least 10 surgeries. He finished with 111 tackles, including 24 for loss, with 13.5 sacks and 39 quarterback pressures. As a fifth-year senior in 2010, he started eight games and finished with 52 tackles, six sacks, 14 pressures and one forced fumble to help the Longhorns rank in the top 10 in total defense and passing defense. Jones has great instincts and closing ability, and could be used as a 3-4 outside linebacker or a rusher in a nickel package.
Positives: Solid pass rusher... Explosive... Good first step... Good burst off the ball... Good bend on the corner... Gets after the quarterback... Good rip and swim moves... Physical... Violent hands... Solid flexibility and body control... Good closing speed... Showed some improvement this season as a run defender... Good change of direction agility... Good range... Chases the action... Good tackler... Plays low... Strong motor... Plays with passion... Can play through pain... Good instincts... High football IQ... Has a lot of potential, was a 5-star recruit and the second highest rated defensive end from the 2006 recruiting class... Had his best statistical season in 2010... Has some upside as a 3-4 OLB.
Negatives: Can be run at... Does not get off blocks especially well... Lacks good strength at point of attack... Though he has not missed a game in two seasons, comes with major injury and durability concerns, has had 10 total surgeries since high school, including shoulder and ankle surgeries following 2009 Fiesta Bowl, was urged by coach Mack Brown to consider quitting football, nicknamed "Old Man" by teammates... Technique can get a bit sloppy... Undersized, would need to add 10-15 lbs. of bulk to get some looks as a 4-3 DE.
Biography: Posted career numbers of 52/6/10 as a senior when he broke into the starting lineup. Junior totals included 23/5/7.
Positives: "Undersized college defensive end with marginal upside for the next level. Breaks down well, quick off the snap, and easily changes direction or immediately alters his angle of attack. Makes plays down the line of scrimmage, plays with good pad level, and is rarely off his feet."
Negatives: Slow finding the ball at times. Controlled at the point by single blocker.
Analysis: Jones is an undersized college speed rusher who cannot get off blocks at the point of attack. He offers potential as a pass rusher that stands up over tackle at the next level if he produces on special teams.
NEXT; YOU give me feedback as I work some more with the formulas searching for the most predictive one, and then start again with the linebackers. So far, based on incomplete work, I believe K. Ellis is likely to be all Pro High Achiever in the NFL, while M. Wilkerson will be better then average, but not an all Pro High Achiever. Your Feedback is the only way I can know if I am on the right path, or if it is worthwhile to do the extra work necessary to prepare my project so I can share it with you.with you. Thank you for your interest.