Shonn Greene is in. Brad Smith is out. The Colts have a small, fast defensive front. They go East and West well. The Tiger formation may not be that effective this week. A power run attack probably will be. I mentioned in the passing matchups that Robert Mathis against Damien Woody should scare the Jets because of Mathis' speed and athleticism. The Colts should be just as scared of the matchup in the run game if not moreso. Mathis is only 245 pounds. He's giving 85 to Woody. New York's use of the draw could cause problems for a guy like Dwight Freeney, who looks to get upfield as quickly as possible. Nobody from the tackle rotation of Antonio Johnson, David Muir, and Eric Foster was particularly strong against the run in the regular season. Ditto the linebackers of Clint Session, Gary Brackett, and Philip Wheeler. Indianapolis is without Bob Sanders, an excellent run supporter at safety.
The Jets made extensive use of their goal line package from everywhere on the field this season. Against a small front, we will surely see plenty of it. Gang Green will look to pound on Indy's line for four quarters to wear it down and keep Peyton Manning off the field. There will be double tight sets with Wayne Hunter and Robert Turner and Tony Richardson lined up at fullback. The Jets will just pound on them. Look at the way Greene popped one late against the Chargers last week.
The Colts will look to play the run, but it's not clear whether it will matter. The Jets have run it successfully against better run units gearing up to stop them. Ray Rice averaged over 5 per carry last week. Rice may be a more complete player, but he isn't as punishing as a power back as Greene. The Jets should be able to be very productive on the ground.