For the last few weeks I’ve been trying to come up with a John B offseason manifesto to offer the Jets some broad suggestions about how they can move forward. I’m going to fall short of naming specific players aside from those who were already on the team this year. I won’t have many suggestions about specific players the team should target in the Draft or free agency. This is more about big picture philosophical shifts I think the team needs to have. Here are some of my thoughts.
It starts with a quarterback.
I don’t think many people would debate the idea that having a quarterback is critical to win in today’s NFL. Look at the last four teams standing. They probably have the four best quarterbacks in the league.
If you don’t have a quarterback, your first priority needs to be finding a quarterback. Right now the Jets do not have a quarterback. Yes, they have a couple of young guys in Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg, but neither is what we could call a franchise quarterback at this point in time. Maybe they will be some day, but until that happens, the Jets need to continue being aggressive in looking for a quarterback. If there is a guy whose skills match up with value with the sixth pick, in the second round, in the third round, or later, they need to take that guy.
I hear two major arguments against drafting a quarterback. They both deal with the idea the team used a second round pick on Hackenberg last year and a fourth rounder on Petty two years ago.
The first is that it would be an “admission” the team missed in its evaluations on these guys. To this I say, “Nonsense.” The only thing it is admitting is that evaluating quarterbacks is a very inexact science. You don’t know how things will turn out. Sure, the media will be critical of the Jets if they draft a quarterback and say they are admitting failure. Anybody running a team, though, has no business running a team if they are making moves based on whether the team will be criticized.
The second argument is the Jets need to, “see what they have,” with their current quarterbacks. This argument doesn’t do much for me. Petty and Hackenberg are still under contract. These guys have a chance to earn their spot on the field. The year Brett Favre retired for the first time, the Packers drafted two quarterbacks. It didn’t stop Aaron Rodgers from showing what he had and taking the starting job. The defending Super Bowl champions this season started a seventh round pick from a year ago over a first round pick because the seventh rounder was better. Somewhere along the way, common sense fell by the wayside when it came to picking a starting quarterback.
The worst thing a team can do is hand out jobs based on Draft position rather than merit. Hackenberg shouldn’t see the field just because he is a second round pick any more than he should sit if he’s better than a player the Jets draft in the first round.
Be more strategic in signing free agents.
The early part of free agency is when most of the mistake deals get done. That is because they are typically too good for the players to pass up.
The problem is these deals that are too good for the players to pass up should be too bad for the teams to offer in the first place.
In the NFL, very few legitimate game-changing players even make it to free agency. The system is set up to incentivize them to sign long-term with their current team.
NFL careers aren’t long. Career-ending or altering injuries are all too real. Contracts also aren’t guaranteed, and nobody except players drafted in the top half of the first round make money on their first contract that sets them up for life. The teams also have a fifth year option at their disposal for first round picks and a franchise tag that can be used multiple times to prevent players from hitting the open market and cashing it. There is every incentive for players to sign a long-term deal with their first team before hitting free agency, even if it means taking a little less money than they would get after hitting the market. It takes the risk away.
With that in mind, the players who do hit free agency tend to be the guys who think they are worth game-changing player money but really aren’t. Their teams would have locked them up if they were in most instances. You also deal with players near the end of their careers who might have been game-changing players in the past but no longer are.
Mike Maccagnan in his first two years has been aggressive in free agency. That was fine in 2015 when he felt the need to drastically increase the talent level immediately and even to a lesser extent, last offseason. This Jets team isn’t ready to compete for a Super Bowl, however.
The longer a player ends up on the market, the more the advantage typically goes to the teams that wait. Other teams sign players to fill holes early so a market can dry up very quickly for a player’s services.
The story of Matt Forte shows how the Jets took the opposite approach a year ago.
As soon as the Jets heard Forte was New England-bound, their behavior changed, sources said. Any concerns about his knee were overlooked, and the three-year, $12 million contract was written up and signed.
This lack of patience and conviction is a hallmark of poorly run franchises. The Jets made a determination that Forte’s knee was a problem. The second it sounded like they might lose him to a division rival, they threw out their evaluation, panicked, and signed Forte.
A smart team knows that it’s almost always easier to recover from a player you don’t sign than the player you make a mistake signing. There were other players who could have replicated Forte’s value available for the Jets. Perhaps they could have gotten one for cheaper. Instead, they took a risk that went against their own beliefs.
Free agency should be part of a more holistic approach that includes our next section.
Stockpile Draft picks.
This needs to be done in two ways.
Focus on adding compensatory picks.
The NFL gives teams extra Draft picks each year if they lose more than they gain in free agency. Nobody is saying let Leonard Williams walk in a few years just because it could help the Jets add an extra third round pick. If the rare legitimate difference-maker like Eric Berry or Le’veon Bell hits the market, obviously you shouldn’t let a compensatory pick get in the way of trying to upgrade the roster.
In general, however, the Jets should look to add extra picks. Here’s the kicker. You can add extra picks while still signing free agents. Not all free agents count against the compensatory pick formula.
Prioritize cap casualties whenever possible.
If a player is cut by another team, he does not potentially cost you a compensatory pick if you sign him. Say Player A can help the team as much as Player B. If Player A was a cap casualty, and Player B saw his contract run out, Player A should be the target.
Focus on one year prove it deals.
Talented players on the rebound looking to have a big year and cash in can be worth a lot. Recent Jets history is full of poor free agent signings. There haven’t been a ton of success stories, but one exception is LaRon Landry back in 2012. Landry was trying to prove he could stay healthy. He signed a one year deal with the Jets. Playing with motivation, he provided the Jets a lot of value on the field. Then he left in free agency signing a big deal with the Colts. The contract with the Colts was a total flop, but it was worth so much money that the Jets got an extra fourth round pick for losing Landry.
Don’t be afraid to wait until the summer.
There is a date where signings stop counting against the compensatory pick formula. No, you won’t get star level players, but you can find good value on cheap contracts like the Lions got with their August signing on Anquan Boldin, who chipped in 8 touchdowns for them this season.
Trade down early and often in the Draft.
It’s tempting to say, “The opportunity to trade down has to present itself.” Why then has Packers general manager Ted Thompson averaged around two trade downs in each Draft since he took over the team? Is Thompson just the luckiest guy in the world that all of these opportunities just happen to present themselves to him and nobody else, or is he adept at working the market to add extra picks when most of the league doesn’t appreciate the value of extra picks?
Adding extra picks is a hallmark of good franchises in this league. Drafting is very difficult. You are going to miss on some picks. Adding extra picks through trading down and compensatory picks builds in a margin for error for your team to find young, cheap contributors.
The days of nonsense like six player Draft classes and trading fourth round picks for fifth round picks needs to end. In the rare instance where you find somebody so exceptional that you trade up, it helps to have extra picks both to deal and to keep enough picks to have a robust class even after you trade up.
It still starts with the quarterback.
Our first point needs to be emphasized a second time. Odds are rather high the Jets will be starting a young quarterback next season. Yes, it might sound tempting to go with a bunch of young players on offense and turn 2017 into a glorified preseason with a bunch of young guys getting reps. Is that really the best thing for the young quarterback, though? Wouldn’t it help to have some experience on the offensive line or receiver? If you were bashing the Jets for the supporting cast they gave Mark Sanchez in 2012 or Geno Smith in 2013 and 2014, can you really advocate dumping every veteran player? A supporting cast might not make a bad quarterback good, but it surely can help a young quarterback have some early success and grow.
Tomorrow in part two I’ll hit you with some more specific ideas on how the Jets should approach the offseason.