FanPost

Preseason Statistical Trends - Who Played Well, Who Didn't by the PFF Numbers



One of the more exciting things about preseason is that we get first glimpses into all the projection that was done in the Off Season and OTAs. We as fans like to fantasize about player developments, sudden leaps in ability that transform average players into good ones, and good players into great ones...and preseason is the first chance we really get to see if these transformations are even possible. Will Coples suddenly - now that he is no longer burdened by that horrible ankle injury, and now that he is so svelte - become a pass rushing demon? Will Geno Smith suddenly become a laser throwing play maker? Will Demario Davis suddenly become a fast, dynamic terror in the middle of the field?

What follows is are where prominent Jets placed in performance during preseason against the rest of the league. Of course none of this matters, the games don't matter, but one would hope that IF there were going to be changes in a player's characteristic play we would see evidence in these kinds of games.

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Offense

QB

Geno Smith and Michael Vick played to a complete dead heat. Vick with the 2s (more or less), slightly above average, Geno with the 1s. Below is the PFF QB rating which subtracts drops, throwaways and YAC. Both were 39th out of 90 QBs (PFF25). Nothing to write home about here.

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WR

Decker was good. 25th out of 160+ WRs. Gates and Salas also had WR QB ratings over 100. Everyone else was pretty bad (under 70, QB rating). With the absence of Kerley it's hard to tell, but it sounds pretty much like what we all expected from WR.

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TE

Amaro was about average. Not really the game changer (yet) that some people dreamed of. 41st out of 81 in yards per pass route run. For what it is worth Chris Pantele was 13th on this list, making the most out of his 4 targets.

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RB

What we already knew. Chris Ivory is better at doing what Chris Johnson supposedly was good at. Being elusive and breaking away. In fact Johnson wasn't very elusive at all. Powell also played with some very unexpected pop. Ivory and Powell were in the top 7 in elusiveness, and in the top 10 in breakaway percentage.

Elusive Rating

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Breakaway Percentage

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Ivory even (in his two targets) even out performed Johnson in yards per pass route run.

Tackle

For those that last year early on blamed Brick's poor play on Winters, and then finally had to concede that it was rather just poor play, the early results don't look good for Ferguson. He was bad in preseason. 109th out of 135 tackles, allowing 5 pressures on 52 pass protection plays. Yuck.

If this keep up the Jets are in big trouble.

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On the positive side Aboushi allowed ZERO pressures in 42 protections, and in a big area of concern for Breno, he only allowed 1 in 52.


Guard

Winters wasn't terrible in protection. Only allowed 2 pressures in 62 protections, ranking 17th out of 60 in the PFF50. Colon was even better, allowing only 1 in 50.

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Center

Mangold was blemishless, Zero pressures in 52 protections.

Defense


Defensive Tackles

Harrison was where we expected him, in the top 10 in Run Stops. Kendrick Ellis though was not really the monster he was last year, ranked 67th.

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Defensive Ends

In Run Stops not great. Douzable actually was the best run stopper among Jet DEs ranked 11th out of 63. Wilkerson was 19th, and Richardson all the way down at 39th. What's up with Richardson?

In pass rush - some people were predicting a huge pass rush from our front 4, not something that is likely in Rex's system - not good. There was a lot of hope that Richardson was going to make a jump in this area, he was subpar last year, it didn't happen in preseason. Wilkerson posted average numbers, Richardson poor numbers.

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Outside Linebackers

The big hope that Coples was going to turn himself into some kind of force as a pass rusher, aided by his new diet and body. Well guys, at least in preseason it wasn't showing. Posted pretty dreadful pass rush numbers. 2 pressures in 35 pass rushes.

Calvin Pace once again performed at a high level with a 12.3 PRP (19th out of 76). Babin was below mediocre with an 8.2.

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Coples did lead the entire league in Run Stop percentage, a huge 19.4%, but that isn't really what we need from him in a passing league.

Inside Linebackers

Not good news here. Demario Davis who has only a few defenders left in the fanbase had ZERO run stops in 34 run plays, pretty much dreadful. Harris and Bellore were neck and neck ranking 61st and 62nd out of 104 ILBers.

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In pass coverage, a serious problem last year, the good news is that Demario Davis was not targeted much. In fact he was one of the least targeted ILBers. Was this because of good coverage, or small sample, we can't tell. He was targeted twice and allowed 1 16 yard completion. On the other hand Harris was targeted 5 times and allowed 5 receptions.

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On the plus side both Davis and Harris had PRPs of over 14, which is a pretty good number for a pass rusher. Harris rushed the passer on nearly 20% of pass rush plays, which is a lot compared to the previous preseason.

Last year in preseason actually Rex rushed Davis over 24% of pass plays (Harris 7.3%) and ended up rushing Davis 17% of the time during the year and Harris only 14.6% (still a far cry from when Scott was rushing over 30% of the time from the same position in years past, on average - Harris used to blitz well over 20% of the time as well). This preseason Rex flipped it and rushed Harris 19.6% and Davis only 13.2% of the time. Is this a signal of switching who is going to be blitzing more between the two in 2014? If so that may mean that they have given up on the idea of Demario Davis becoming a Bart Scott to the Defense.

CB

Darrin Walls was very good by the numbers. The 7th best QB rating against in the league. Not sure why, but the team doesn't like him. He probably isn't a "good" CB, but given the ridiculous way that Idzik went about addressing this position there is at least an outside chance that he'll be some kind of stop gap for the Jets.

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Lankster had a good 61.6 QB rating against, Patrick 75.2 everyone was awful, lead by Wilson with a rating over 150. Just a note, but "washed up" Antoinio Cromartie put up a 48.6 QB rating against for AZ...we'll see how that plays out.

Safety

Miles was the only Jet safety with significant Run Stop % numbers. 12% of his run plays produced stops (36th out of 147). Prior and Landry were both at 8.3%.

In coverage the sample sizes were pretty small generally. In Yards per target all did very well with the exception of Jarrett who whiffed. 5 targets, 5 receptions

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On the blitz Rex was more aggressive that he has been during the season for several years, and he got very good production from Pryor but also Miles. We can only dream, but these numbers reflect some of the early Rex Years. In fact it is pretty unlikely that he'll be sending his safeties on over 20% of pass plays, having never done that before. At least it does say he's toying with the idea of aggression.

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Conclusion

We all know that the preseason is meaningless. But what - at least for me - is interesting is that these trends are pretty suggestive of how I thought the season might unfold...or at least in seeing them one gets the sense "Well, that makes sense". It would not surprise me if Coples fails to make the quantum leap at OLBer, or if Babin is only middling at bringing pressure. It would not surprise me if Geno becomes an average NFL QB this year, or if Decker is far and away the best WR. Amaro does seem like an "average" weapon on offense. Ivory IS a better runner than Chris Johnson I believe, and I could see Powell having a surprising year in the 3rd back role, he is under rated. That Brick is continuing his tail spin in protection from last year? No huge surprise, but worrisome. Could Winters improve, he should. Is the front 4 going to have a big pass rush season, not likely. I'd say the biggest surprise is that Richardson is struggling instead of blossoming at this point, and that Wilson is getting burned at a high rate. Those are two trends the team really can't afford. Are we surprised that our Inside Linebackers aren't producing? Or that Davis is invisible? No. Walls is an interesting figure here though. Could this be the sign of potentially decent play in an understocked CB cupboard?

To me most of the strengths and weaknesses we already knew about have shown themselves. The biggest question may be if Rex will continue his more aggressive blitzing play calling. Was he just beating up on scrubs and scrub schemes trying to increase his team's confidence, ready to dial it back once games matter? Or is he going to roll the dice a little this year with weak coverage skills at CB and LBer, and try to pressure himself to wins...after several years now of growing more and more conservative. Blitzing individual Safeties and ILBers at rates over 20% at least somewhat invokes the glory years. We'll see if this keeps up.

side note: point of attack

In a bit of irony, there thus far is a point of weakness in the Jets at the same point on the field, on both offense and defense, continuing on from 2013. The left tackle is having a hard time protecting the passer, and our OLBer is having a hard time attacking the left tackle. Could the story of season all boil down to just this one little point on the field: what happens at left tackle on each side of the ball? An over simplification surely, but also perhaps something symptomatic to bigger issues with how the team is constructed...point of attack.

Moving Coples away from the Right Side?

The sample size is small, but there is some evidence that quite apart from the idea that Coples is going to become a pass rushing force in 2014, they are moving Coples away from the left tackle. Last year he rushed from the right side twice as often at he did from the left. In preseason his rushes were split, with Babin taking up some of those right side attacks (I believe, I haven't watched the film).

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As some have pointed out, this may have been the plan all along with Barnes last year, monkey-wrenched by his injury. It still does not erase the problem of Coples not being a very good edge rusher, and keeps pressure on the question of whether he should ever have been moved outside. And it is unclear just how dynamic Babin can be outside the left tackle. Last year he rushed the QB predominantly from the left side of the formation (74.4% of the time), and was more effective in doing so. From the right side he was no more effective than Coples was. In 2012 Babin rushed 97% of the time from the left side, 93% in 2011.

I may have missed some statistical trends or performances. This was just an quick eyeball of the PFF data.

This is a FanPost written by a registered member of this site. The views expressed here are those of the author alone and not those of anybody affiliated with Gang Green Nation or SB Nation.