Geno Smith is a more Effective passer than Tom Brady

On 3rd/4th down (sorry couldn't fit that bit in to the title)

We have seen the Haterade Vs Kood Aid battle take place on GGN regarding who should start at QB. I found this interesting article i thought i'd share.

You can read the full article HERE

It examines how effective every QB was in passing on 3rd/4th down and was quite surprised how high Geno ranked considering all the other data shows how ineffective he was passing the football.

The basis of this analysis is a little complicated.

To grade third down performance, I included sacks but discarded rushing data.

The author calculates the league average conversion rate on third downs for each distance.

Using this data, he then calculates how many 1st down the average QB should be able to achieve in relation to the distance each QB has to go to get a 1st down. Here is a quick look at the results

 photo 98f9b572-ad09-40eb-8a5b-411c83e23a47.jpg

No surprise that Peyton Manning leads the way here. But what was a surprise( to me at least) was the fact that Geno was 14th. I would have maybe expected Geno to have fared well here if they had included his ablity to run the football but on passing alone it was a real surprise.

Also interesting to note was the absence of guys like Tom Brady and Andrew Luck from the top of this list. They actually performed below average. You can find their results below.

 photo 8d924e52-92de-4762-83b1-aec1ff67b062.jpg


Using Geno as the example, you can see he had 156 passing attempts on 3rd and 4th down. The average distance for these attempts was a quite poor 8.7 yards ( same as Nick Foles ). The expected average rate of completions for this distance was 32.7%, translating into 51 expected 1st downs through the air. Geno actually had 57 1st downs for an actual rate of 36.5% ( 3.9%) over what was expected, good enough for 14th out of 42 qualifying QB's.


While it's nothing to have a ticker tape parade over, it may be a reason to be encouraged about his future. After all, it's not everyday you see a historically bad QB finish ahead of the likes of Tom Brady or Andrew Luck in any passing metric.

Personally I don't read much into the results but i thought i'd share so you guys can make your own conclusions.

Thanks for reading.

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