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NFL draft math UPDATED

I'm a math nerd. So I figured I'd look at some things to have some fun.

Chances of getting a Pro-Bowler:

Looking back to the drafts from 2004-2008 I counted how many pro-bowlers went in each round. I then made some probability calculations to find the rate of pro-bowlers in each round. I'll apply it to the 2013 and 2014 draft at the end.

1st round: 69 Pro-Bowlers, 54% of players

2nd round: 28 Pro-Bowlers, 22% of players

3rd round: 15 Pro-Bowlers, 11% of players

4th round: 17 Pro-Bowlers, 11% of players

5th round: 7 Pro-Bowlers, 5% of players

6th round: 7 Pro-Bowlers, 4% of players

7th round: 6 Pro-Bowlers, 4% of players

2013

1st round: 2 picks. Odds of one Pro-bowler 78%. Odds of getting 2 Pro-Bowlers 29%

2nd round: 1 pick. Odds of Pro-Bowler 22%

3rd round: 1 pick. Odds of Pro-Bowler 11%

5th round: 1 pick. Odds of Pro-Bowler 5%

6th round: 1 Pick. Odds of Pro-Bowler 4%

7th round: 1 Pick. Odds of Pro-Bowler 4%

Total odds for entire draft (at least)

1 Pro-Bowler: 87%

2 Pro-Bowlers: 76%

3 Pro-Bowlers: 40%

4 Pro-Bowlers: 20%

5 Pro-Bowlers: 8%

6 Pro-Bowlers: .03%

7 Pro-Bowlers: .0000006%

2014

1st round: 1 pick.

2nd round: 1 pick.

3rd round: 1 pick.

4th round: 3 picks.

5th round: 1 pick.

6th round: 4 Pick.

7th round: 1 Pick.

Total odds for entire draft (at least)

1 Pro-Bowler: 83%

2 Pro-Bowlers: 71%

3 Pro-Bowlers: 60%

4 Pro-Bowlers: 15%

5 Pro-Bowlers: 5%

6 Pro-Bowlers: .025%

7 Pro-Bowlers: .00000007%

and so on

Clearly, having the plethera of 4th round picks makes us a bit better. But all of the later picks don't exactly help our odds compared to 2013's 2 first round picks boosting upteh probabilities once we pass 3 pro-bowlers

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