A Mockery Of Mocks

Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports

How much did 2013 mock drafts get right about the Jets' selections?

This is mock draft season.  This time of year everybody and their third cousins twice removed post their mock drafts, hoping to accurately predict how the 2014 NFL draft might go down.  And this time of year here at GGN you predictably read stuff like, "there's no way" so and so will be available at such and such pick, or the Jets WILL use their early selections on such and such position or so and so player.  These statements are often made with a large degree of vehemence and/or certainty.  I thought it might be interesting to revisit the 2013 mock drafts to see how much credence such certainty should be given.  Here is what I found.

Some introductory notes regarding methodology.  I ran a search for 2013 NFL mock draft and simply used the first results that came up.  Presumably they're first on the results list because most people lend them some credence, but who knows for sure?  At any rate, there was no selecting done; I simply took the first results that popped up, and supplemented GGN and SBN mocks for comparison's sake. It should also be noted that all of these mocks were the final pre-draft versions, so far as I could discern, and all were done long after the majority of free agent activity had already shaken out.  Let's take a look at the results.

9th pick

13th pick

NFL.com

Mayock

Jordan

OLB/DE

Eifert

TE

Jeremiah

Austin

WR

Hayden

CB

Casserley

Floyd

DT

Vaccaro

S

Brooks

Mingo

OLB/DE

Eifert

WR

FF Toolbox

Binstock

Mingo

OLB/DE

Eifert

TE

De Lima

Mingo

OLB/DE

Vaccaro

S

Warner

Mingo

OLB/DE

Vaccaro

S

Standig

Austin

WR

Mingo

DE/OLB

Dimon

Mingo

OLB/DE

Austin

WR

Long

Jordan

OLB/DE

Smith

QB

Sports Illustrated

King

Mingo

DE/OLB

Austin

WR

Banks

Mingo

DE/OLB

Smith

QB

Walter Football

Mingo

DE/OLB

Austin

WR

NFL Draft Dog

Mingo

DE/OLB

Vaccaro

S

GGN

Ansah

DE

Rhodes

CB

SBN

Austin

WR

Warmack

G

These results are interesting.  Mingo was the top choice, chosen by 10 of the 16 mock drafts.  Austin was chosen in 6 of the 16 mocks.  It is worth noting that neither player was even available by the time the Jets used their first pick at #9.

Vaccaro (S) was chosen in 4 mocks, Eifert (TE) in 3 mocks, Jordan (DE/OLB) in 2 mocks.  That makes a total of 25 picks out of the 32 picks made in these mocks used on players that not only weren't chosen by the Jets; the positions represented by said players were not chosen at any point by the Jets in the 2013 draft.  Oops.

Geno Smith was the only correct choice of the 32 picks listed.  Even then, they had him going in Round 1 (as did nearly every other mock on the planet), when he actually fell to Round 2, some 25-30 picks later than expected.  Kudos to Long of FF Toolbox and Banks of Sports Illustrated for getting Geno correct, even if it was in the wrong round.

The remaining 5 picks were Ansah (DE), Warmack (G), Rhodes (CB), Hayden (CB), and Floyd (DT).

So there we have it.  16 mock drafts, 32 picks.  Not one pick made coincided with a Jets first round pick.  Only two coincided with any Jets pick.  Smith fell much farther than nearly anyone could have imagined.  The vast majority of picks mocked to the Jets went earlier than anyone expected and were not available when the Jets actually picked.  A  large majority of the mock first round picks were at positions that the Jets did not use any of their 2013 draft picks on.

Moral of the story: nobody knows anything.  And those who claim to know such and such team is "almost certain" to choose such and such position, or "there's no way" so and so will possibly be available when the Jets choose, are very likely expressing a level of certainty that is not only unfounded, but is in fact impossible to justify.

Mock drafts are fun.  They're the lifeblood of offseason discussion.  But anyone who takes them too seriously is likely to have the actual results make a mockery of their mocks.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Gang Green Nation

You must be a member of Gang Green Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Gang Green Nation. You should read them.

Join Gang Green Nation

You must be a member of Gang Green Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Gang Green Nation. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker