FanPost

2014 Draft: Trading Up (Maths included)

Did some googling to try and find the secret formula for how draft picks are valued. The one that makes the most sense is this one from Walter Football.

Our draft spots are valued as follows:

18 - 900

49 - 410

69 - 245

80 - 190

114 - 66

134 - 39

149 - 31.8

169 - 23.8

189 - 15.8

226,246,251 (compensatory) - 1,1,1

Typical trade ideas would be swapping first rounds, one of our third round picks, and a later round(5th/6th). The value of which is 900+245+39= 1184. That moves us up to around 12.

The reason I bring this up is pretty straight forward. I heart Sammy Watkins. I want him. In a bordering unhealthy way. So, let's see what it would take to snag him. He is seen by many to go at 5 to Oakland. So, we need to jump up to 4th overall.

4th overall value is 1800. We come up with half of that with just the 1st round swap. So there is the remaining 900 to make up. Throw in our extra third (245) and we are at 655. The remaining 655 is tricky. It would have to come in the form of next years picks. Assuming we are again a bubble wild card team, I'm gonna put us down for pick #20 next year. To get to 655, we would need to offer next years 2nd round (380) to put us down to 275 the 3rd round pick is valued at 170. The 4th round pick (this year or next) is valued just around 64. So now we are 41 away from being "fair". To recap, we have given them a 2nd rounder, two 3rd rounders, and a 4th. I think its fair to say that amount of picks is very very steep.

What is the right spot to try? Looking at Watkins, I would be okay with swapping picks, a third, and a future second. That puts us at 900+380+245 = 1525. That moves the Jets up to 7th overall. Coincidentally, Tampa picks at 7 who is seen to be another Watkins suitor. To make sure we are above them, we need 100 more points. That comes out to a late 3rd or early 4th. That again puts me at the edge of uncomfortable. Our 5th round pick is valued at 39. That would put our total at 1565. Is that close enough to get the 6th overall? If so, I would call it a really tough decision but as of now I'm leaning towards pulling the trigger.

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