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Geno Smith "Confutative", The type of system a quarterback comes from. (spread oriented systems) 'Part 4'

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The type of system a quarterback comes from (spread oriented systems)....

A system doesn't walk into your locker room. A quarterbacks skill sets do. There has been a lot of concern over quarterbacks from spread systems. But to generalize is a trap and NEVER a valid means of evaluation of a player. Lets look at undeniable FACTS!!!!. With just a lock at the last 5 years of the NFL draft.

List of the last 5 years.... Quarterbacks commonly referred to as spread system quarterbacks or coming from spread oriented systems have had success on par with or BETTER than quarterbacks from what most refer to as more traditional systems.

The good evaluators don’t evaluate based on a system. History disputes this notion that the system a quarterback plays in will impact their ability to operate a NFL scheme over their careers. And with open minded coaches that are willing to allow their quarterbacks to employ concepts from college it has allowed quarterbacks to bridge what they do well into schemes a coach wants to do. (do what you do best instead of forcing a round peg into a square hole).

Quarterbacks listed in Italic come from spread systems. And as you can see more and more are being drafted. And more of them are coming in as NFL ready as anyone else.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
2012 – QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Andrew Luck QB Stanford Indianapolis Colts
1 2 Robert Griffin QB Baylor Washington Redskins
1 8 Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M Miami Dolphins
1 22 Brandon Weeden QB Oklahoma State Cleveland Browns
2 57 Brock Osweiler QB Arizona State Denver Broncos
3 75 Russell Wilson QB Wisconsin Seattle Seahawks
3 88 Nick Foles QB Arizona Philadelphia Eagles
4 102 Kirk Cousins QB Michigan State Washington Redskins
6 185 Ryan Lindley QB San Diego State Arizona Cardinals
7 243 B.J. Coleman QB Tennessee-Chattanooga Green Bay Packers
7 253 Chandler Harnish QB Northern Illinois Indianapolis Colts

and 2011

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
2011 – QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Cam Newton QB Auburn Carolina Panthers
1 8 Jake Locker QB Washington Tennessee Titans
1 10 Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri Jacksonville Jaguars
1 12 Christian Ponder QB Florida State Minnesota Vikings
2 35 Andy Dalton QB Texas Christian Cincinnati Bengals
2 36 Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada-Reno San Francisco 49ers
3 74 Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas New England Patriots
5 135 Ricky Stanzi QB Iowa Kansas City Chiefs
5 152 T.J Yates QB North Carolina Houston Texans
5 160 Nathan Enderle QB Idaho Chicago Bears
6 180 Tyrod Taylor QB Virginia Tech Baltimore Ravens
7 208 Greg McElroy QB Alabama New York Jets

and 2010

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
2010 – QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma St. Louis Rams
1 25 Tim Tebow QB Florida Denver Broncos
2 48 Jimmy Clausen QB Notre Dame Carolina Panthers
3 85 Colt McCoy QB Texas Cleveland Browns
4 122 Mike Kafka QB Northwestern Philadelphia Eagles
5 155 John Skelton QB Fordham Arizona Cardinals
5 168 Jonathan Crompton QB Tennessee San Diego Chargers
6 176 Rusty Smith QB Florida Atlantic Tennessee Titans
6 181 Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan Chicago Bears
6 199 Joe Webb QB Alabama-Birmingham Minnesota Vikings
6 204 Tony Pike QB Cincinnati Carolina Panthers
7 209 Levi Brown QB Troy Buffalo Bills
7 239 Sean Canfield QB Oregon State New Orleans Saints
7 250 Zac Robinson QB Oklahoma State New England Patriots

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

2009 – QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 1 Matthew Stafford QB Georgia Detroit Lions
1 5 Mark Sanchez QB USC New York Jets
1 17 Josh Freeman QB Kansas State Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2 44 Pat White QB West Virginia Miami Dolphins
4 101 Stephen McGee QB Texas A&M Dallas Cowboys
5 151 Rhett Bomar QB Sam Houston State New York Giants
5 171 Nate Davis QB Ball State San Francisco 49ers
6 174 Tom Brandstater QB Fresno State Denver Broncos
6 178 Mike Teel QB Rutgers Seattle Seahawks
6 196 Keith Null QB West Texas A&M St. Louis Rams
6 201 Curtis Painter QB Purdue Indianapolis Colts

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
2008 – QB
RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 3 Matt Ryan QB Boston College Atlanta Falcons
1 18 Joe Flacco QB Delaware Baltimore Ravens
2 56 Brian Brohm QB Louisville Green Bay Packers
2 57 Chad Henne QB Michigan Miami Dolphins
3 94 Kevin O’Connell QB San Diego State New England Patriots
5 137 John David Booty QB USC Minnesota Vikings
5 156 Dennis Dixon QB Oregon Pittsburgh Steelers
5 160 Josh Johnson QB San Diego Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5 162 Erik Ainge QB Tennessee New York Jets
6 186 Colt Brennan QB Hawaii Washington Redskins
6 198 Andre Woodson QB Kentucky New York Giants
7 209 Matt Flynn QB Louisiana State Green Bay Packers
7 223 Alex Brink QB Washington State Houston Texans

So while some will try to bring up a spread system as a concern… .it isn’t based on reality… it is based on group think!!!!!! Lets look at quarterbacks drafted in the first 3 rounds of the last 5 years only. Hmm I note the 2 quarterbacks from the last Superbowl in the group of quarterbacks that have played in spread oriented schemes.... hmm... reality isn't matching perception.

Top 6 spread QB from the last 5 drafts

Cam Newton 1st rounder

Colin Kaepernick 2nd rounder

Robert Griffin III 1st rounder

Joe Flacco 1st rounder

Andy Dalton 3rd rounder

Sam Bradford 1st rounder

Top 6 pro Style quarterbacks of the last 5 drafts

Andrew Luck 1st rounder

Matt Ryan 1st rounder

Russell Wilson 3rd rounder

Matthew Stafford 1st rounder

Josh Freeman 1st rounder

Christian Ponder 1st rounder
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
OR what about note worthy busts or under achievers

I see more Busts and underachievers when I look at quarterbacks from traditional schemes.

Spread offense

Blaine Gabbert 1st rounder
Tim Tebow 1st rounder
Colt McCoy 2nd rounder
Kevin O’Connel 3rd rounder

Pro style

Jake Locker 1st rounder
Christian Ponder 1st rounder
Jimmy Clausen 2nd rounder
Mark Sanchez 1st rounder
Brian Brohm 2nd rounder
Chad Henne 2nd rounder

Based on facts just pure facts… it appears drafting is trending toward spread quarterbacks…. success is trending toward spread quarterbacks… the NCCAF is trending toward spread systems... so if you are weary of quarterbacks from spread systems then ladies in gents it will only increase in number….. in a nute shell. >>>>Suggesting that a quarterback that comes from a spread oriented offense as a issue is lazy analysis…. out of date… simply not good enough.

Skill sets can be evaluated….NOT a system… prospects walk through your door with their skill sets NOT their college coach or prior system……… as proven with facts above.

All of this fear of spread quarterbacks, I blame Mouse Davis and June Jones inventors of the run and shoot.

As the NFL’s fear of drafting spread quarterbacks stem from Andre Ware and David Klingler who ding and dunked their way to massive yardage totals in their run and shoot offenses. The NFL failed to look at their skill sets and in turn blamed their failed lazy evaluations of the spread offense. Instead of the NFL's fraud rudimentary methods of scouting a scheme that was new to college football. The Houston Cougar's massive points and yardage totals are the result pre run&shoot defensive philosophy.(in short no one had a clue how to defend Mouse Davis's offense for a few seasons)

From my post "Why Robert Griffin III is more advanced than Andrew Luck" The spirit of which was pointing out how responds to pressure and pocket manipulation was the core good quarterbacking.

This is why when I hear someone suggest that a quarterbacking coming from a spread oriented system has "red flags" or anything along those lines I instantly realize they just don't know what they are talking about. And that is because history and facts slap that notion directly in the face. When you go back and look at "trends" you have more ammunition to suggest that quarterbacks that come from spread systems are superior. However I am not making that case. My stance is that saying either way is lazy evaluating.

Pay attention to skill sets NOT these factors as a primary source of evaluations…

1. wins and losses

2. Conferences a player plays in or level of competition

3. type of offensive system they ran

4. stats

I have found that these factors alone without context of film simply don't allow for accurate projections at the quarterback position.

Edit responds revision:

I wanted to add to this post because of the awesome fans on GGN questions in the comments. But I wanted to just add it too this post.

It just seemed like you were contradicting your own point was all

But that is why i went back and quoted myself.....

When you go back and look at "trends" you have more ammunition to suggest that quarterbacks that come from spread systems are superior. However I am not making that case. My stance is that saying either way is lazy evaluating.

Even still though, the 5 criteria you’re judging QBs can really come down to a pocket presence grade. There is so much more to it than that though.

I don't deny this, I am simply sharing what I look at. The major point is that using "systems" with out film context is a path way to missing in evaluations because systems aren't skill sets.... a coaching philosophy doesn't follow the player. ONLY their ability does walks into that locker room.

Now using analysis based on film study is subjective. I tried to put structure about what I am seeing with my "evaluation system". But really if someone had MORE information to pick up from film study I would welcome it and LOVE it. ..... by no means am I saying that my evaluation system in terms of what i see on film trumps all other eyes on tape. ........ But when I look at a player and try to determine their identity I am more likely to get it right based on film study..... than Stats.... Systems.......level of comp.... or wins and losses without film to give it context.

While these grades and questions are legitimate, they’re only a small piece of a very small puzzle. A QB can grade out well 1 – 5 and still be a bad QB.

I don't deny this. But like any research it isn't about finding some magic matrix that gives you a clear defined answer with something like this. It is about trends..... and I think that I did state that this is "opinion

I didn't list everyone... just enough for most to get the pattern. If you can't excel at this aspect of quarterbacking you will struggle. This isn't fact, this is me simply trying to find a way to articulate what I am seeing on film.

I think most would tend to agree that even in opinion my chart is just a "ball park" type of thing. But it does show a trend that matches the state of the game now. If a quarterback isn't responding to pressure and making good choices under pressure then it will be extremely difficult to play at a high level.

This system defines why I said prior to the 2012 draft that Griffin would be more advanced than Luck because of respond to pressure and turning the ball over. It wasn't a guess, i was projecting that based on my research....... and I was dead on.

I would note to everyone how Newton was sacked 23 times at Auburn. (As i noted last year at this time he dealt with pressure very well.) Andrew Luck was sacked 23 times in his career at Stanford. RG3 was sacked 79 times in his career. Yet Griffin makes less mistakes with the football while under a lot more pressure and throwing the ball 128 more career passing attempts than Luck…. 17 int for RG3 and 22 for Luck…. how is this possible? How can you throw less int while under more pressure with more volume of attempts too make mistakes on….? Everyone that is pretty descent at math think about that for a moment… RG3 under significantly MORE pressure yet makes less mistakes while throwing the ball more. And we aren’t talking about dinkin and dunking we are talking about a lot of down field high degree of difficulty throws by RG3.

These stats matched film study I conducted where I saw Luck simply didn't get pressured at a high rate and when he did I saw these type of plays...

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This was a constant theme for Luck WHEN pressured..... the difference was he wasn't pressured often (23 sacks for his career at Stanford)

What I noted for Griffin was the opposite. He was pressured A LOT yet he passed the ball 128 MORE times than Luck.... was sacked 56 MORE times than Luck (79 for his career).... Yet Griffin only had 17 interceptions.......... these stats match film

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What I noted based on my system "pocket matrix" was ON FILM Griffin responded to pressure better. Regardless of schemes or level of comp I looked at purely how they responded with bodies around them and incoming pressures. I projected what Luck would look like during a NFL 16 game season of getting sacked 35 to 40 times (41 as a rookie).

How was I able to determine this?... film study using a system emphasis on responds to pressure from the pocket... and the ability to throw with anticipation.

As per Pro football focus Robert Griffin vs pressure wasn't just the most accurate rookie quarterback. He was the most accurate quarterback IN THE NFL!!!

So all that I am saying is, that my system has merit. I don't pull determinations out of the blue. And I don't think that my determinations are always right. I am saying that those that orient their evaluations based on film with other sources of information for context instead of the basis of their evaluations....... I stick too that system.

Geno Smith Note....

Geno Smith Note: I would also say that Geno Smith's responds to pressure and moving in the pocket reminded me of Griffin. If Geno Smith had a running back rush for 1600 yards and 20 touchdowns (Terrence Ganaway) then his story may have been different in 2012 (just look at the Pin stripe bowl where the Orangemen running backs rushed for over 250 rushing yards by the starter and over 120 yards by the back up..... imagine if Smith had that type of help like Robert Griffin had ..... who by the way Ganaway had over 200 yards in that bowl game)

My important note that relates to my pocket matrix is that Geno Smith also was sacked 78 times compared to Griffin's 79 times.... and Geno Smith tossed 22 picks compared to Robert Griffins 17 (note Geno had over 230 more pass attempts in his career than Griffin to make mistakes on)......... point is LIKE Griffin Geno Smith simply wasn't making mistakes with turning the ball over vs pressure. ON TOP of very little help in the running game which most understand contributes too that situation.

In my evaluation system this is a big positive flag that trends toward success..... dealing with pressure....not giving it too the other team..... even while exposed to a high volume of situations that would normally lead to turnovers.

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I found that the NFL community simply don't evaluate this dynamic well. And that Geno Smith is a player I have been following since 2011 because of this dynamic because this is a constant theme that I have seen from him on film.... which reflects very well on my"pocket matrix" that I illustrate in this Fan post "Geno Smith "Confutative" Leadership / Intelligence / My evaluation of Geno Smith / Pocket Matrix"

This isn't suppose to be facts. This system is me articulating what I am seeing. Something that is subjective in nature. My point is that if our evaluation processes are more centered on film. Then even with 10 different opinions based on what we see on film it will allow for greater context for >> Stats >> Systems .. etc etc...... INSTEAD of conjuring a narrative based on stats or a box score or what formation a quarterback lines up in....... the Evaluation of ability.....Not systems.

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