Geno Smith "Confutative", the folly of Stats in a vacuum 'Part 3'



Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5


Stats are one of the main pit falls in the evaluation process. Andrew Ware for example was a stats guys dream. Yet the NFL did a poor job (Lions) of evaluating skill sets. This fear of spread quarterbacks is because they tend to put up monster numbers compared too their counterparts. Yet in that process there wasn't the emphasis on evaluation of skill sets. Looking at the ability to anticipate and respond to pressure and bodies around him. Because Andre Ware simply wasn't exposed because of scheme… he never had to display NFL skill sets because of the media environment and the evolution of evaluation at the position. It looked really cool to see him have 10 touchdowns late in the 3rd quarter of a game. Or to have the Houston Cougars score 103 points (yea they where insane and college football wasn’t ready for that system and teams over drafted Andre Ware and David Klingler because of it……… because stats aren't skill sets)

Other positions like running back give you a better understanding with stats because if a running back has 2 things >> big time stats >> running style matches body type (IE big guy runs like a big guy instead of a scat back... or a little back trying to run with power instead of speed and quickness)... then generally a running back will pan try to look at a quarterback this way is a mistake.

So when I talk about Geno Smith I do acknowledge stats. But ONLY with in the context of film. The film has to match the Stats. And in Geno Smith’s case it does even with superior talent to throw too in Tavion Austion and Steadmen Bailey. The general rebuttal to this is when someone says >>> "he threw a bunch of screen passes". And he did and that isn't something unique in college football. Yet it does feel like that notion is disingenuous because Bailey didn't catch 25 touchdowns from screen passes.



Conferences a player plays in or level of competition......

This isn't a evaluation of skill sets. I know the difference between the SEC and Division 3. However this is why you have film so that you can see the skill that fit your system or not.

This really is one of the biggest mistakes fans make and a lot of NFL decision makers make. I am well aware of the talent pool with in major conferences like the SEC. It is a proven fact that those schools produce NFL talent.....

However when i watched Joe Flacco at Delaware and I saw him throw a lazer I didn't say >>> "well that was a nice pass but he can't throw that ball in the SEC". This is the folly of evaluating by level of competition instead of evaluation of skill sets.

Other interesting reads for those who like Stats...

Smith, Barkley, Glennon, and Wilson metric break down

Accuracy in perspective

Lewin Career Forcast

Pay attention to skill sets NOT these factors as a primary source of evaluations…

1. wins and losses

2. Conferences a player plays in or level of competition

3. type of offensive system they ran

4. stats

I have found that these factors alone without context of film simply don't allow for accurate projections at the quarterback position.

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5

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