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Geno Smith "Confutative" Wins and losses 'Part 2'

Wins and losses

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via sportsillustrated.cnn.com

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5

1. Wins and losses

Win loss records are associated with quarterbacks. This is dynamic that speaks to me in this way. It basically is a lazy argument that suggests that circumstances don't matter. What it really says to me is that those that stand on such stance simply don't understand how all the moving parts that go into a end result. This is another aspect that media and fans try to use to paint a negative Narrative about players namely Geno Smith.

In a responds to a comment from a fan that made that argument. This fan suggested that because Geno Smith had not won vs Syracuse in 3 tries that it proved a major flaw in his game. OR that his last bowl game vs the Orange-men proved that he could not produce in a bowl game. I said the following in responds.......

seriously.... i keep comparing this to Peyton Manning....and game situations

He never beat florida during his career in 4 tries

Had 134 yards passing and only one TD drive with 8 minutes left in trash time of a 42 to 17 blow out lost in his last bowl game ….. before he was replaced by Tee Martin lol.

People that are saying Geno Smith struggled big time vs K State and Texas Tech have a point…. he didn't play at his normal level. Yet he was 51 of 88 for 421 yards 2 TD 2 int….. that isn't great. Yet if you put it into perspective Andrew Luck had worst games than that. BUT HIS DEFENSE WASN'T AVERAGING giving up 49.1 points a game. Last year while everyone was all slobbing over Luck no one paid attention to the fact that Stanford didn't give up 21 points or more until SEVEN GAMES into the season

GAME SITUATIONS MATTER please stop pretending guys that we don’t under stand football please lol.

Example: these are the opponent scores for Stanford last year >>>> 3…14….10….19…..7……14…..21…..48(OT) ….. 13 ……30…….28……14……..41

note Stanford was 1 and 2 vs teams that scored 40 plus……. basically. All year teams averaged 19.9 freaking points a game

note WVU was 2 – 4 vs teams that scored 40 plus…… All year teams averaged 38.1 points a game (3 additional Touchdown scoring drives PER GAME MORE LOL)

If freaking Andrew Luck played for WVU he would have dealt with similar game situations and there is reason to believe if his defense was giving up the 20 MORE points a game that WVU defense gave up you would have seen him in the SAME Situations. Of which he himself was 1 and 2 in those type of game situations (where you defense isn’t stopping the other team)

PEOPLE…. i don’t deny Geno Smith didn’t look great vs Texas Tech or Vs K State. But to pretend this isn’t how football works is my issue. The truth is…. while Smith faced these type of game situations yet Only threw 6 interceptions all year should stand out like a big fat red alert glaring in you're face. Because when a team is down facing teams they can’t stop the usually pattern is that your QB starts to turn the ball over left and right. THIS didn’t happen and if you are truly objectively evaluating you would note this…… and not game situations like the ones Geno Smith faced

Just ask Peyton Manning he faced it at Tennessee….. He had these say type of game situations and the story played out the same for him…. 134 yards passing and 1 TD in trash time in a 42 to 17 blowout lost.THIS IS HOW FOOTBALL WORKS LOL…. it isn’t a measurement of the QB. People using this to grip a QB are just using lazy low hanging fruit because it is a easy "he just wins" argument.

And another reply to this notion that team success or failure without acknowledging the circumstances.

Of course the commentor went on to dispell what I said with…..

"Show me a winner …Geno isn’t"

So of course I continued with my responds too this…..

If it was up to you then you would not have drafted Peyton Manning either by that logic. I have read your comments and it is almost like a few people believe that Smith is all 11 players and circumstances don’t matter.

They gave up a AVERAGE of 38.1 points a GAME….that is a AVERAGE lol. He walks off the bus down 30 points… sorry but the truth is when you see a team give up that many points true students of the game look directly at the quarterback position and EXPECT a high turnover ratio….. because it is clear you are in a bunch of known passing situations…. it is clear you are playing catch up from the start… it is clear that facing this your turnovers should SOAR!!!!… but it didn't. In fact it is incredible that he only had 5 INT during that 5 game losing streak…. .but of course you will just say "he isn't a winner" and ignore facts…. like WVU giving up 49 points or more in 4 of those 5 games… you will ignore the pure math he had to over come in order to have ended that 5 game stretch with 5 wins (he would have literally had to have passed for 60 TD and around 5500 yards to just have had a CHANCE in those games)

Being a Ex Naval instructor I am use to solving problems. I am use to looking at the moving parts and determining the next step in the process it will take to come to a answer. And as I look at the common them here when it comes to this line of thinking >>>> "Geno Smith isn't a winner"….. it leaves me questioning objectivity and if these opinions have a agenda behind them… In real life you can’t look at the entire system if it doesn't work and say "throw it away"… you have to problem solve and discover the true issues. You have to acknowledge circumstances in order to understand the context of events….. the issue with WVU wasn't Geno Smith.

Ask Drew Brees if his Defense not making stops impacted his season (worst statistical defense in the history of the National Football league)… if it impacted their situational football. Drew Brees didn't all of a sudden forget how to play. They are a 7-9 team because they could not make stops on defense….. again WVU defense gave up a AVERAGE of 38 points…. that is trialing before you even get off the bus.

Peyton Manning never beat Florida….. Tennessee didn't even score till the 4th quarter of his last bowl game lost 42 to 17. So according to you if you had your say you would pass on Peyton Manning with that logic right?….. the truth is circumstances matter and when you dig into those events you see Geno Smith was 20 of 28 with 2TD no picks 205 yards… with 2 bad safeties in the game …. but you better also look at Peyton Manning throwing pick 6’s in his last 2 games vs the Gators AND in the last bowl game…. circumstances matter…. players around you matter…. situational football matters. Trying to use this "he just wins" argument doesn't work in any other area of life… can’t do that as a electronics tech… can’t do that as a brain surgery … can’t do that as a CEO of major business. You HAVE to look at "why".

Why….. Why did WVU lose those games? Was it Geno Smith?… Add up the SHEAR NUMBER of TD and yardage he would have had to have produce in order to have won those games…. and your only answer is "he isn’t a winner"? If a major company tried to critically think like that they would end up like Best Buy….

The quarterback position often gets records associated with it. And having a quarterback really helps a team in the win lose column. But to me this is where the media use this as the end all of end all in evaluation of a quarterback. Even at the expense of ignoring all other circumstances of prior history.

Examples of this are endless, Alex Smith for instance. Here is a quarterback that hasn't been very productive until lately. And even with his latest success most of it is team oriented. Yet fans forget just how bad he was his first 6 years. In 2011 the 49er Defense gave up 3 rushing touchdowns... while Alex Smith lead the NFL in throw a ways and sacks taken. After a lock out the 49ers didn't install a new scheme. They simply took it out of his hands and told him to eat the sack or throw it away. As Alex Smith has never been able to be "the difference" just "not manage to screw it up"... with a career record of 2 wins 27 losses and 1 tie in games where opponents scored 24 points or more (basically unless the rest of the team carries him he didn't have success)..... Remind Jets fans of anyone?The same fans /media that suggest that winning is a skill set that trumps all circumstances please monitor the Chiefs this year and see if that trend continues.

In Geno Smith's case, he didn't have circumstances that impacted win totals that he had no control over.

I often wonder why people can't understand how a WVU defense that gives up 38.1 points a game isn't a excuse. .... it is a circumstance that deserves consideration. Yet the media will tell you how bad he played in his last Bowl game without any historical perspective.....like Peyton Mannings last bowl game..... or Aaron Rodgers last bowl game etc etc. Peyton Manning had a clear bright beautiful day in his last bowl game..... but didn't even lead a scoring drive till mind way into the 3rd quarter. Do i measure Peyton Manning based on that? No because I realize that circumstances matter.... the talent gap between teams matters and can not be ignored.

And some will say "Well did you see Geno Smith in his last bowl game?" .... almost as if Skip Bayless is feeding them what to say. ... And I just go back to what I saw (copy paste from a responds I gave on GGN comments)...

I have to say Joeyboy790 ... i wish i could like speak on these things. But i don't know how... i will try

Did you see the syracuse game?

        • The game where he had 205 yards passing 2 touchdowns and zero picks on 19 of 28 passing? (with 3 drops) (sigh)
        • Same game Ryan Nassib was 11 of 23 for 134 yards 2 touchdowns and 1 pick? (sigh)
        • NOOOOOO way that game had anything to do with Syracuse starting running back rushing for over 250 yards and the back up rushing for over 120 yards IN THE SAME GAME right?
        • No way WVU leading rusher being a slot WR rushing for a entire 53 yards…… the slot WR (sigh)… sure but popular media narrative is that none of this has anything to do with it right. (sigh)
        • Sure Geno Smith leading a spread offensive scheme in the snow with no running game and no defense stopping the other teams running game…………… but i am sure that the Media spin on that was all about How Geno Smith wasn't slinging passes all over the field in the snow because of course Ryan Nassib sure showed him how to do it that SAME game right? (sigh)

I often think of what Geno Smith's draft stock would look like if he played on a better team. And this is a bunch of "woulda shoulda coulda" but here me out....

In 2011 Luck's Stanford team gave up 19.9 points a game

in 2012 Smith's WVU team gave up 38.1 points a game

In Luck's entire career vs teams that scored 38 points or more Luck was 2 and 4 (key words 'his entire career')

In Smith's 2012 season at WVU he faced 8 teams that scored 38 points or more and won 2 of them

Lucks 2011 Stanford team didn't give up 21 points until 7 games INTO THE SEASON!!!

There is reason to believe that Geno Smith's team would be a lot more successful if they didn't give up 49.1 points a game during their losing streak.

Luck's was 0 and 2 vs teams that scored 49 points or more

THIS IS BECAUSE THIS IS HOW FOOTBALL WORKS!!! lol

Those that believe in ignoring circumstances and choose to only register end results look very smart as Monday Morning Quarterbacks. But would you really choose Trent Dilfer over Dan Marino with that logic?
My point is, there is reason to believe that this media narrative of "he just wins" is "Folly". Circumstances aren't excuses...... it matters.
................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Pay attention to skill sets NOT these factors as a primary source of evaluations…

1. wins and losses

2. Conferences a player plays in or level of competition

3. type of offensive system they ran

4. stats

I have found that these factors alone without context of film simply don't allow for accurate projections at the quarterback position.

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5

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