FanPost

Geno Smith "Confutative", The Evaluation process 'Part 1'

Geno_smith_pittsburgh_v_west_virginia_hveihifipmll_medium

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5

It is my opinion that the NFL Draft process as it pertains to the quarterback position is in need of greater perspective. There is a increased amount of group think and media hyperbole that reduces the quality of the evaluations of these players.

My favorite evaluators who I think "gets it" is Greg Cosell of NFL films. He doesn't buy into media spin or who has been talked about more on ESPN.... or who they suggest isn't great (remember prior too the combine Cam Newton wasn't ranked very high as per the major networks). Mr. Cosell only evaluates based on what he sees on the tape. I model my approach on this. This has lead me to have much different opinions of prospects and even at times disagreements with Greg Cosell himself. This is a healthy evaluation environment for productive exchange of ideas..... this isn't however how the world works. Between social dynamics and perspectives... between media spin.... between old vices that fans can't let go or relate too.

In essence Greg Cosell is actually telling you to look for yourself as he shares his opinion on what he sees on film. My opinion is simply that, my opinion. However if I may share with you what I see on film and then maybe you can go back and connect you're own dots.... scouting reports aren't facts it is only opinion.... the very nature of which is subjective in nature. Experienced opinions should be heeded, but remember the context of it is still opinion, including mine

Geno Smith Confutative




want to share with you my journey this "draft season" on this prospect Geno Smith.

I firmly believe in what Greg Cosell of NFL films suggested when evaluating a quarterback on film (not talking about interviews and off the field evaluations just skill sets in between the white lines) …..

Pay attention to skill sets NOT these factors as a primary source of evaluation's

1. wins and losses

4. stats

2. conference they played in

3. type of offensive system they ran

These areas need further context and can not stand alone without film to support any negative or positive extrapolation.

..................................................................................................................................................................................................................

My evaluation process is 2 part...

A. does a quarterback throw with anticipation with accuracy.

B. Do they have dynamic pocket command? … as defined by the following

1. Able to maintain eye level down field regardless of what is happening (feel the rush not look at the rush). Can a passer slide in the pocket and climb the pocket while NOT looking at the rush at all.

2. Can a passer maintain his passing profile (ready to throw it and remain on balance) and if extending the play by moving can they reload (get back on balance)

3. Does a passers level of play drop off significantly when they are pressured? Or can a passer maintain a high level of play vs pressure.

4. (bonus) have the ability to extend the play.

5. (bonus) have the ability to make plays with their legs.

Many laughed at me when I said Cam Newton was MORE NFL ready than anyone could dare give him credit for… AND that Blaine Gabbert would be a bust and I based it on my research as it related to pocket command and throwing with anticipation. I made this determination with in the confines of this system.

What i noted is that Newton looks like what many media personalities claimed Gabbert was....and Gabbert looks like what many of those same media personalities suggested that Newton was.

One thing no one wants to talk about with Newton...pocket presence. He isn't rattled ...he isn't scared...when all hell is breaking down around him he is calm. He is very decisive and makes good choices with the football. And against the blitz his completion % went UP to 70%!!!!...watch any video of him and you note that IN THE POCKET he remains calm and focus down the field...now watch Gabbert and you will see a QB that has happy feet and reads one side of the field and takes off...you will see a qb that doesn't "feel the rush" and looks at the rush....Newton doesn't do that his focus is down field the entire time and he feels the rush. This is the difference between being Joey Harrington or Phillp Rivers...in fact this is the NUMBER ONE SKILL SET of all franchise quarterbacks. You can't read any defense or apply any of you're so called football knowledge if you don't instinctively know how to focus down field with you're eyes at all times and "feel the rush" instead of "looking at the rush"....this in my humble opinion is the single most important reason why i think Gabbert isn't ready and why surprisingly Newton is more advance than anyone is willing to give him credit for.

My point in bringing this into the discussion isn't about these players. As much as it is about how film can cut through media hyperbole. This was my opinion on Mar 31 2011.

Prior to 2012 draft I projected that Robert Griffin III would be MORE NFL ready than Andrew Luck from the stand point of "ability to respond to pressure". I projected in my fan post how Andrew Luck was more prone to turnovers based on evaluation on film of how he respond to pressure to give the following stats context...

"Andrew Luck was sacked 23 times in his career at Stanford. RG3 was sacked 79 times in his career. Yet Griffin makes less mistakes with the football while under a lot more pressure and throwing the ball 128 more career passing attempts than Luck…. 17 int for RG3 and 22 for Luck…. how is this possible? How can you throw less int while under more pressure with more volume of attempts too make mistakes on….? Everyone that is pretty descent at math think about that for a moment… RG3 under significantly MORE pressure yet makes less mistakes while throwing the ball more. And we aren’t talking about dinkin and dunking we are talking about a lot of down field high degree of difficulty throws by RG3."

At the time this was a out of the box statement to make considering how the media spin said he was the best QB prospect to come into the NFL since Elway. My system of looking at responds to pressure doesn't use stats. I use film, however I did look at film to give these stats context and what I found was that Griffin innately dealt with pressure better than Luck. Which at that point was a out of the box thinking.

Results..... Luck lead the NFL in turnovers for most of the season until late. Griffin had 5 interceptions on the season (12 fumbles 2 given up... 10 related to read option oriented exchanges). Even with looking at the differences in scheme and pass attempts. The core theme was the decision making vs pressure that PRIOR too the draft I questioned with Luck after looking at him from down to down. Even Greg Cosell noted this prior too the draft and made note of it.

http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/03/23/cosell-talks-its-not-always-luck/#comment-5929

Two other traits really impressed me in evaluating Griffin. The first was his patience and composure in the pocket. He did not move when the bodies started closing it down. He threw effectively out of what we call a "muddied" pocket". He did not need much functional space to deliver the ball with velocity and distance. Surprisingly, in my 5 game breakdown of Luck, he exhibited a tendency to move too quickly, to leave the pocket too early. The result was often a positive because of his athleticism and ability to throw on the run, but I am very anxious to chart this element of his game in the NFL.

Greg Cosell Senior Director of NFL Films

How does this apply to Geno Smith?

So what is the point in all of this? I am referring to how the media sells the fans on a narrative. And without checks and balances no will will know the truth till a Quarterback takes a snap. (checks and balances being film study over media hyperbole). This directly applies to Geno Smith. Most fans are so far gone down the rabbit hole of negative media spin that most simply have NO idea what the truth is regarding player evaluation in sports.

I want to talk about skill sets

Being able to throw with anticipation and being able to remain calm vs pressure while sliding in the pocket and climbing the pocket… a offense can remain in a vertical passing game. It isn't about how strong you're arm is on most downs.. it is about can you throw people open (anticipation). And you can't anticipate throws if you're eyes are leaving developing routes / coverage. Based on these standards that I have followed in projecting accurately the career path of prior draft classes. That Geno Smith grades out as the highest rated in this department that I have evaluated (managing the pocket and dealing with pressure).

I think that the NFL evaluators see Geno Smith as a risk for all the wrong reasons...

1. team success or lack there of

2. scheme he used in college

3. statistical drop from what he was early on to what he was mid season (video game numbers down to normal numbers)

4. and a lack of perspective on the game situations he faced.

..............................................................................................................................................................................................................

Pay attention to skill sets NOT these factors as a primary source of evaluations…

1. wins and losses

2. Conferences a player plays in or level of competition

3. type of offensive system they ran

4. stats

I have found that these factors alone without context of film simply don't allow for accurate projections at the quarterback position.

In my humble opinion in my process (which by the way not only have I been right using this system but I have been dead on IN DETAIL right)... i use 2 traits as my basis with all other sources of input as food for thought......

My evaluation process is 2 part... A and B

A. does a quarterback throw with anticipation with accuracy.

B. Do they have dynamic pocket command? … as defined by the following

1. Able to maintain eye level down field regardless of what is happening (feel the rush not look at the rush). Can a passer slide in the pocket and climb the pocket while NOT looking at the rush at all.

2. Can a passer maintain his passing profile (ready to throw it and remain on balance) and if extending the play by moving can they reload (get back on balance)

My prior evaluation fan posts related to command in the pocket and projecting the 2011and 2012 prospects.

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Gang Green Nation

You must be a member of Gang Green Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Gang Green Nation. You should read them.

Join Gang Green Nation

You must be a member of Gang Green Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Gang Green Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker