Geno Smith, rated by many as the best quarterback in the 2013 NFL Draft is still on the board heading into the second round. It feels unlikely he will make it to the third round. There were enough questions in Geno's game to scare teams off in the first round. If you invest a first round pick in a quarterback, you are committing to him for a few years. A second round pick is less of an investment.
If using a first round pick on a quarterback is saying, "You're our guy for the next four to five years," a second round pick is saying, "I see some tools I really like. Let's give this a try." The money and investment don't tie you down. Just a few years ago the Carolina Panthers took Jimmy Clausen in the second round and then Cam Newton with the top pick the next year.
What are the odds Geno Smith falls to the Jets? Six teams pick in front of New York to kick off the second round.
33. Jacksonville-Needs a long-term quarterback.
34. San Francisco-Has Colin Kaepernick so does not need a long-term quarterback.
35. Philadelphia-Needs a long-term quarterback.
36. Detroit-Has Matthew Stafford so does not need a long-term quarterback.
37. Cincinnati-Has Andy Dalton so does not need a long-term quarterback.
38. Arizona-Needs a long-term quarterback.
The odds could be better here. Three teams picking in front of the Jets need a long-term quarterback. The best option to land Geno might be trading up with San Francisco. There's a pitfall here, though. The 49ers already have a deep roster and a ton of picks. They need to pick for the biggest impact. They don't need to stockpile more picks. It would be something of a waste. Just the picks they have probably won't all make their team. In order to move up with them, the Jets might have to blow them out of the water. If that happens, you get right back to the same problem you had in the first round, having made such a big investment in Geno that you have to commit to him.
It's still not looking likely that Geno Smith ends up a Jet.