What’s up people. First post under my new, and actual, name. In this AGOP, I worked to emphasize realism. This means contracts are based off of league deals of similar caliber players, I designed realistic restructures, and most moves were made with the future cap in mind.
As of now the Jet’s have an estimated Cap Space of:
Eliminating around 5.5 million for the Rookie contracts that leaves us with approximately:
$2,600,000 of space for FA’s
As stand in GM my first move is to cut dead weight, prioritize talent, and free up enough room to fill an active roster:
Cuts and Restructures:
Sione Pouha NT- Cut:
Difficult ones first. Pouha is my boy. He was dominant for the 2009-2011 seasons and has been a great Jet. But Pouha’s injury bug, and the FO’s recent decision to sign Devito, leads little choice except to ask him to accept the league minimum and, upon his refusal, cut him to find a team that can afford to pay him.
Cut Savings: 3.833 million
Mike Devito??? NT - Not Resigned:
Well this is starting to get scary. I am a big believer in Kenrick Ellis. I think he has all the tools to be a monstrous DT, but even the best ones only play about 60% of the snaps in a game. It is an unbelievably strenuous position. I thought for sure Devito was going to be resigned. However, it seems that we will look to add some depth either in FA or the draft. Look for the jets to target someone like Jonathan Jenkins at #31 or Star Lotouielei at #9. In FA they could look to: Sammie Lee Hill (Lions) or Roy Miller (Bucs).
Tim Tebow QB- Cut:
Can’t say I’ll miss him. Never wanted him here in the first place, it clearly was more a marketing ploy than a football decision. Cut him now, don’t drag it out, and work to build a team that is relevant for its football and not the entertainment it provides.
Cut Savings: 1.055 million
Matt Simms QB- Cut
Camp fodder. With the impending signing of Garrard and Sanchez and McCelroy we have enough mediocrity, no need for more. Saves us a cool $405,000
Cut Savings: $405,000
Joe Collins WR – Cut
Another body that will never see the field. Makes me wonder why we keep guys like this and not UDFAs with legit potential like Jonathan Grimes. WR is a position that you need depth at for sure but with the recent signing of Thomas Mayo and Collins inability to even register a tackle on special teams (or even crack the active roster), its time for him to go
Cut Savings: $405,000
Royce Adams WR - Cut
Saves us $400,000. Needs to go.
Cut Savings: $405,000
Pay Cuts / Restructures
Santonio Holmes - Pay Cut / Cut:
We have received reports that Idzik has contacted Holmes about taking a pay cut. It’s the right move. If he doesn’t take it, then things will start to get really interesting. Cutting him and his signing for another team will reduce our cap hit, but will also leave us without a true #1 WR (thought its arguable if we have one now). Needless that would be devastating to our receiving core if we can’t find a suitable replacement. But Holmes is not playing at the level of #1 WR money, plus coming off a serious toe injury, the Jets have leverage.
Pay Cut Savings: $3,5000,000
Nick Mangold - Restructure:
Elite center, great team leader, cornerstone of the offensive line. Lock him up for five more years with little penalization to cap:
Restructure Savings: $2.4 million
Antonio Cromartie - Restructure:
Here’s where I might get a little controversial, but after much thought I believe it to be the best way to go. Over the past two years Cro has elevated his game. When Revis shredded his knee and Cromartie took over, he showed himself to be a capable #1 corner. Cromartie will never have the elite focus, preparation, and overall execution that Revis does, but it does appear that his mental game is finally catching up with his considerable physical tools. With a Revis trade imminent (as much as pains me, with the right deal I do believe trading Revis is in the best interest of the team) locking up Cro for 4 to 5 years will free up cap space and ensure that we have solid secondary. Pushing his salary to later years won’t be as much trouble considering we will be able to cut the bloated, disgusting piece of shit that is Mark Sanchez’s contract.
Restructure Savings: $6.8 million.
The culmination of these moves clears up a significant amount of cap space. The result of which is:
Cap Space – Rookie Wages excluded: FAs only: $22 million
Darelle Revis to Tampa Bay Buccaneers for their 1st round selection (13th pick of draft) and a conditional 2nd in 2014. Trade happens after June 1st before Training Camp: Cap Hit: $3 million.
It honestly makes a lot of sense. Tampa Bay has the cap space and wants to stir up the fan base. We got the 13th pick of the draft and probably more if Revis performs and accepts a long term deal. With these picks we gain some cheap quality depth and it removes us from the financial burden that Darelle Revis has become. We will miss you 24, you were something special.
Cap Space: $19 million
Phillip Wheeler – OLB
An absolute, ABSOLUTE, beast for the Raiders last season. Wheeler was signed to a 1 year contract for $700,000. Yes, you read that right. And suffice to say he proved himself. 4th best graded by Pro Football Focus, Wheeler was stellar in coverage, run support, commanded the offense as defensive play caller after Rolando McClain started slacking and by all accounts was crucial to any defensive success the Raider had. We give him a contract with a low first year salary, but nice guaranteed cash.
Update: Wheeler has been signed by the Dolphins. Disappointed, but 5 million is more than we could of given up for him and about what he deserves.
Victor Butler - OLB 3 years/$4.5 million
Underrated player that has yet to perform on the big stage. Will most likely jump at his chance to start and could thrive under Rex’s direction. Will start opposite either a draft pick, McKintyre, or Bellore.
Cap Hit: $1.5 million
Brandon Myers – TE : 3 years/$5million
See my post on why he would be a good fit. Cheap replacement for Keller, solid possession receiver, and big man blocker (though he struggled a bit last year).
Alternate: Martellus Bennet
Cap Hit: $1.5 million hit
Brandon Moore – RG: 4 years/$12 million
Rated #1 on PFF, extremely underrated Guard and a dependable Jet. We sign him and give him as much cash as we can, though probably not as much as he deserves.
Cap Hit: $2.5 million hit
Louis Delmas - S: 3 years/$5.5 million
Extremely underrated Safety for the Lions that caught the injury bug. Should be cheap as a result.
Cap Hit: $1.5 million
Patrick Chung (NE) – S:
Originally considered Glover Quinn, but he will likely just be too expensive. Patrick Chung would be a cheap alternative. Hard hitting in run support, his coverage has been suspect. Would be a good fit for the SS spot to compete with a incoming draft pick or incumbent.
Cap Hit: $1 million
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie – CB: 4 years/$15 million
Elite physical skills that could serve some tough love and high expectations. Rodgers-Cromartie issues are eerily reminiscent of our own Antonio Cromarties. Both are big and fast, but shy away from contact. With Cromartie’s recent growth, the two could provide a solid CB tandem for much, much less than it would cost to keep Revis. It is an insanely crowded CB market so Rodgers-Cromartie will come much cheaper than normal.
Cap Hit: $3 million
Alternate: Aqib Tali: Cap Hit - $2.5 million
The other option is Aqib Tali who is an extremely talented CB, but has a reputation for being a head case and far from dependable.
Brandon Gibson – WR: 1 year/$765,000
To support Idzik’s competition mantra, we bring in Gibson to compete with Hill for the #2 WR spot
Cap Hit: 765,000
David Garrard – QB: 3 year/$5 million
Competition is good.
Cap Hit: 1.15 million
Jeff Cumberland – TE:
Cap Hit: 2nd round tender: 1.927 million
Austin Howard – OT
Cap Hit: 2nd round tender: 1.927 million
Total $ spent for FA’s: $16.8 million. $2.2 million left in cap space.
Draft Time Homies:
Ezekial (Ziggy) Ansah - OLB (9)
Jordan, Milliner, Jones, and Geno are all gone. We score a beast with insane upside for the OLB position.
Alternates: Star Lotuielei (NT), Chance Warmack (G), Kenny Vaccaro (S)
Chance Warmack - G (14) / Or / Star Lotuielei - NT (14)
With the Bucs 14th pick, we take perhaps the best prospect of the draft in Chance Warmack. Immediately turns our line into a dominate force with Moore, Mangold, and Warmack on the inside; Brick on the outside LT and Howard on the RT with TE Brandon Myers offering support.
On the offchance that Warmack is picked, which be historical due to the nature of the Guard position, we go with Star Lotuielei a Nose Tackle who was considered a top 5 prospect until a heart condition at the combine got teams scared. In reality it was just a flutter and a combination of Coples, Lotuielei, Ellis, and Wilkerson terrorize the league for a decade.
2nd Alternates: Damontre Moore (DE/LB), Tank Carradine (DE), Tyler Eifert (TE), Codarelle Patterson (WR)
Giovanni Bernard - RB (39)
If we’re lucky enough and he falls, we get a beast at 39 in Giovanni Bernard. An elite RB and perfect fit for the WCO, Bernard adds a breakaway threat to our offense. I don’t know if Bernard will fall here, especially with Eddie Lacy’s recent tumble but he is the only RB I would take this high. There will be plenty of talent in the 4th or later: Michaels, Stacey, Gisilee, Davis, Randle etc
Alternates: Eric Reid (FS), Justin Hunter (WR), Jonathan Jenkins (DT) Matt Barkley (QB), DeAndre Hopkins (WR), Zack Ertz (TE)
Phillip Thomas FS (72)
One of the premier Safety’s in the draft (most certainly top 5, maybe top 3). Thomas immediately competes for starting spot and adds quality depth. Safety has been a weak spot in a dominant defense for the past 4 years; this pick insures some DB stability for the next five.
Alternates: Bacarri Rambo (FS), Chris Faulk (OT), Sio Moore (OLB), Brennan Williams (OT), Manti T’eo (ILB
The goal in mind is to targed elite talent in the first round and then focus on a mixture of BPA, need, and positional depth in the draft class. This years draft class is extremely deep for Safety’s, OL, and RB. (Un)Lucky for us we have needs everywhere. Thus it is likely these will be the positions of focus in rounds 3 through 5. BPA and talented players with off the field issues will dominate rounds 6 and 7.
This brings us to the Jet’s Projected Roster without draft rounds (4-7).
QB: Sanchez / Garrard
RB: Bernard / McKnight / Powell
WR2: Hill / Gibson
LT: D’Brickashaw Ferguson
LG: Chance Warmack
C: Nick Mangold
RG: Brandon Moore
RT: Austin Howard
TE: Myers / Cumberland / Smith
LDE: Muhammed Wilkerson
RDE: Quinton Coples
NT: Kenrick Ellis / (Star Lotuielei?)
MLB: David Harris
MLB 2: Dernario Davis
LOLB: Ziggy Ansah
ROLB: Victor Butler
CB 1: Antonio Cromartie
CB 2: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie or Aquib Tali
CB 3: Kyle Wilson
FS: Louis Delmas/Phillip Thomas
SS: Patrick Chung or Glover Quinn
P: Rob Malone
I hope you enjoyed this AGOP. Feel free to give any comments or criticisms.
One thing I did consider with the recent news that Devito has been bounced is the possibility of taking Star at 9, Warmack at 14, and then look for a OLB pass rusher either in the 2nd or 3rd or in Free Agency. In the draft names like Alex Okafor, Khaseem Greene, and Sio Moore come to mind. If we can get Wheeler and one of these guys our LB issues will pretty much be solved.
The big question that has appeared this offseason is what the Jets are going to do with the Nose Tackle, Safety, Linebacker, Cornerback positions. Hopefully I have addressed these unknowns with realistic strategies. Thanks for taking the time to read.