I broke down the kinds of targets Geno has been working with in this Total Targets post, suggesting that not only has Geno Smith been burdened with a change of receivers through the year, but also showing that the offense itself is flowing towards non-playmakers, and often players that don't even had a solid grasp of the offense and their routes. But as we seek to consider just how "bad" Geno must be the other factor to think about is pass pressure. Obviously it is a factor for every QB, but for a rookie coming out of a spread offense pass pressure must be one of the more difficult adjustments to be made.
Below is data taken from PFF showing the assignable blame for sacks, QB hits and QB hurries through the schedule so far. These kinds of figures unfortunately are subjective to some degree in that they do not assign blame to a protector if the fault is deemed to be on the QB or on coverage. These numbers are supposed to reflect failures at the point of a protector's performance, and the are in exclusion of pressures that directly attributed to Geno Smith. While individually the numbers may be questioned, in the wider scope they do seem to present a picture of problems with Jet protection with a least a loose correspondence to Wins and Losses:
The sack, hits and hurries totals are self-explanatory. The PBE total is part of a formula that PFF uses to weight pressures. Sacks count as 1, hits and hurries count as .75. The PBE total is that weighted total.
But this distribution does not completely capture the downward trend in pass protection lately because it does not consider pass play totals. So I produced an additional distribution that creates a hybrid number which is the PBE total divided by the total number of pass plays. These are Jet team totals with the only exception being the Buffalo game where I sought to remove all the data from the 4th quarter (pass plays and pressures) which was a bit distortive of the nature of the game when Simms took over.
The Jets have lost every game over 27. And won every game under 27 (with the exception of the 1st NE game which was very close). The only game they lost that was under 27 was the first New England game, which was quite close. While correlation is not causation the data picture here is somewhat telling. There are a lot factors in involved in these numbers including game plan and the nature of opponents, as well as score, but keep in mind these are numbers that seek to exclude the fault of Geno and of coverage. These are just tracking failures in protection.
These are hand collected numbers so there could be errors.