FanPost

A Look at the Jets Pass Rush Efficiency Through the Year So Far

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This is just a glance at the team pass rushing efficiency throughout the year, something of a followup study to my thoughts on The Rise and Fall of the Rex Ryan Blitz where I point out how dramatically Rex Ryan's blitz has been drawn down from its very aggressive levels in 2009 and 2010. This small study from PFF data is just a picture of this year's games, and I present it here in case anyone else might find this interesting. There are no team PRP stats for the league as far as I know of so these pass rush efficiency numbers can't be compared to the rates of other teams, but they do allow in-season, game to game comparisons. The average number of pass rushers per pass attempt is shown in light blue, and dark blue shows the PRP number which is a Profootball Focus weighted formula which includes QB hits and hurries, as well as sacks in relationship to pass rush totals. PRP works something like a weighted percentage, higher is better, and may be thought of as something like the percent of rushes that produce a positive QB pressure result. The light blue dotted line marks out the Jet average PRP for the season (6.97), the thin red line marks out the Jet average rushers per attempt for the season (5.03).

A few quick things that jump out, maybe others will see others. There was a profound difference between the two Buffalo games. In the first game the Jets rushed a season high average of 6.09 men per pass play, and were extremely efficient, their best PRP of the year (10.0). In the second game the Jets averaged 4.82 men per pass and had a near-season low efficiency of 4.62. Manuel had a pedestrian QB rating of 71.8 for the first game (which was actually pretty good considering the failure rates of rookie QBs against Ryan in the past), and then a QB rating 121.9 in the second game which - if I had to guess - is the probably best QB rating by a rookie against Ryan ever. These of course were very different games as they unfolded, but it does seem that there were different pressure approaches, and one really didn't work.

Also of note is that the Jets rushed about the same number of pass rushers on average in both New England games, but were far more productive in the second game, partially because of unexpected pressures produced by Harrison (who on the year isn't good at pressuring the QB for a DT) and Davis.

Watching these relationships between number of men rushed on average and PRP is something I wish PRP would do. The more men you rush on a given play the requirement for pressure gets much higher because total rushes on that down have gone up, i.e. getting a QB hit with 4 rushers gives you a much higher PRP than with 6 rushers, for instance.

For reference this was probably the most significant graphic from my post on the slowing of the Rex Ryan blitz showing how DB's blitz far less frequently than ever:

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via cdn1.sbnation.com

as usual, these are hand collected stats and there may be errors.

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