Geno Smith's Projected 2013 Stats

Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

Since we are exactly halfway through the 2013 season, now seems like a good time to prorate what Geno Smith's stats are on pace to look like at the year's end. We also did a projection at the quarter point of the season so below we will compare the two to provide an idea of how the second quarter of Geno's season went statistically.

Current Proejection Previous Projection
Completions/Attempts 300/506 312/544
Yards 3,764 4,360
Yards/Attempt 7.4 8.0
Touchdowns 16 16
Interceptions 26 32

So as you can see, Geno threw less in the second quarter of the season, which is likely why his production and his mistake projections got lower.

Back in April, I did an average of stats for the sixteen quarterbacks who saw significant playing time as rookies from 2008 to 2012. I divided them into eight good quarterbacks and eight bad quarterbacks to offer some kind of idea of what a good season would be for a rookie. Below is where Geno currently rates relative to the two groups.

Good Quarterbacks Geno Smith Bad Quarterbacks
Completion Percentage 59.5% 59.3% 55.9%
Yards Per Attempt 7.2 7.4 6.3
Touchdown rate 4.1% 3.1% 2.8%
Interception rate 2.8% 5.1% 3.7%
Quarterback Rating 83.2 71.6 68.7

All of this paints the mixed picture we have seen live on the field, some things to like a lot and some things that are quite scary. Is Geno this team's quarterback for the long haul? We'll need to see more. It's too early to say, and the degree to which he improves in the final eight games will tell us a lot.

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