I love Basketball. Im a long time suffering NY Knicks fan, I saw my first game when I was 4 and i've missed maybe a handfull of games since. Recently, I joined the PTA at my sons new Jr. High school, its actually a really cool group of people, and at our fist meeting they raffled a pair of tickets to the Nets home opener against the Knicks. Needless to say I was pretty excited so i proceeded to purchase quite a few tickets for a good cause. Fast forward 30 minutes and its my stub they pull from the bingo machine and I'm syked. Syked because I can no longer afford tickets to MSG, and now I get to watch my Knicks wipe the floor with these busters from my own borough (Brooklyn). But I digress, Make the jump so I can attempt to make this Jets related.
Im going to be using basketball terminology to analyze the Jets remaining 14 games, and catagorize them as Lay-up's, Free Throws, or 3-Pointers.
I dislike predictions, theyre purely speculation and it takes away from the simple fact that anything can happen on any given sunday.
Lay-Up- Theres nobody in front of you, only the hoop, the ball is in your hands and nothing outside of a sudden eathquake will stop you from scoring. This would apply to games where there is clearly 1 dominant team and the other being innexperienced or incompetent. There arent many intangible factors that will sway this game away or towards either team. The contest is basically over before it starts. Example Packers vs Colts.
Free Throw- Take your shot, nobody is going to stop you, you're only 15 feet away from the hoop! You should make the shot easily, but when theres 0.05 seconds left, your team is down by 1, on the road getting yelled at by 30,000 crazy Laker fans with thundersticks it gets tough to concentrate, and even elite free throw shooters like Chauncey Billups can miss under that stress. A team could easily lose a game to an inferior opponent if you're on the road during Monday nght football, or if you just travelled 3000 miles to Seattle to play the Seahawks. Still, more times than not, the better team wins, but trap games do exist. The Jets had a free throw on there schedule last year that they lost to the Broncos.
3-Pointer- You're 30+ feet away from the basket, you've just completed your best Rip Hamilton impersonation and ran around the court to the opposite sideline avoiding your 250 lb center and numerous defenders, you get passed the rock quickly and within half a nano-second you turn and take your shot. SWISH, damn im good, I can do that again, Miss, Miss, Miss. The best 3 point shooters shoot between 40% and 46%, matter of fact, the Knicks Steve Novak led the league last year with 47%. (even though he choked against Miami) grrrrrr. But i digress, based on the numbers, you miss more threes than you take. So the Jets going into Green Bay would more than likely be a loss, even though anything is possible and as long as you show up ready to play, anything can happen. The Redskins definately had week 1 against the Saints pencilled in as a loss and they ended up stomping Drew Brees into the ground. The Bears were flying high into Green Bay last week and got stuffed by Clay Mathews. Factors that would help teams during 3 Pointers would definately be Home Field Advantage and maybe even already losing to that same team earlier in the year, as it is very difficult to sweep any NFL team.
I hope you understand my comparissons and the terminology that i'll be using here.
Week-1 Buffalo Bills- Free Throw- We had swept them the previous year mostly convincingly, we were playing at home. The defense was going to give the bills the Fitz (lol). Gameplan was simple, stop Mario Willams and Fred Jackson. Mission Accomplished.
Week-2 @ Pittsburgh Steelers- 3-Pointer- Going into Heinz Field is never a good thing. Especially without your best player. Your QB better be on the money all game or its not gonna happen. And it did not.
Week-3- @ Miami Dolphins- Lay-Up- There is ZERO excuses in any language to lose this game against a rookie QB and a depleted offense. On the road, at home, doesnt matter, this is a win.
Week-4- SF 49'rs- 3 Pointer- Maybe the best team in the NFC at the moment. Home Field advantage will be on our side during this contest and we better hope it proves to be the deciding factor.
Week-5- Houston Texans- 3 Pointer- If you keep shooting you will make some threes. Another difficult task but you feel alot better that youre not in the heat of Texas during this face-off. The week prior against the 49'rs should get us some nice practice against another solid defensive and run based team.
Week-6- Indiannapolis Colts- Lay-Up- Another Rookie QB means another feast for Rex and the D. Remembering what the Jets did to Blainne Gabbert last year, this SHOULD be similar.
Week-7- @ New England Patriots- 3 Pointer- I don't know how Arizona managed to do it but they did. They Beat the Pats on the road in New Englands home opener. Rex should be studying that game tape now. I dont think there kicker is going to miss many more of those FG's with the game on the line. This one is a long shot even if the Pats lose every game from now till then.
Week-8- Miami Dolphins- Lay-Up- Should be more of the same from week 3 but the Dophins have a tendancy of ruining our lives when they have no business doing so. Still, No Excuses, we better win..
Week-9- Bye Week.
Week-10- @ Seattle Seahawks- Free Throw- This one was tough to catagorize, there is no doubt in my mind that the Jets are a better all around team than Seattle, but going into Century Link field is a nightmare. The noise, plus the 3000 miles traveled is a recipe for disaster. The only factor stopping this game from being catagorized as a 3 pointer was the fact that Russel Wilson is a rookie. I dont know what to expect in this one.
Week-11- @ St Louis Rams- Free throw- These Rams are definately improved. Jeff Fischer is a hell of a coach, and Schotty is going to save his best run, run, short pass gameplan for us. On the road for this one, still a game we should win, but you never know if Sam Bradford actually performs to his draft status, and if he does, we can be in trouble.
Week-12- New England Patriots- 3 Pointer- This one is going to be fun. Thanksgiving Evening, at home against our arch rivals. The biggest game of the year by far for the Jets. The entire universe will be watching and this could be a pivitol game for both teams. I think you can pencil this one in as a 3 Pointer for the Patriots as well, it wont be easy for them to come into our house with this type of pressure.
Week-13- Arizona Cardinals- Free Throw- Whoever said that a 2 QB system cant work needs to take a look at the Red Birds of Arizona. lol At the moment, The Cardinals look solid. There defense has been aggressive, there special teams have been outstanding, and they still have Larry Fitzgerald. The only thing holding them back is there QB situation that they'll be dealing with all season long. Still, dont under estimate a team that beat up the Pats in there home-opener. Super winnable game for the Jets but could be a Trap game as well.
Week-14- @Jacksonville Jaguars- Lay-Up- If all is going well this game should end up similar to last years whoopin. No excuses for this one. A wide open lay-up.
Week-15- @Tennesse Titans- Free Throw- Let me say that I really liked Tennessee coming into this year, and i'm shocked that they've looked so bad so far. If you asked me a month ago about this game, i'd say its a game we would probably lose. Monday night, Primetime, on the road against CJ2K and a nice defense. But theyve looked awful and this game has been downgraded from 3 pointer to Free Throw. Still, if Tennessee plays to 75% of there potential we will have our hands full.
Week-16- SD Chargers- Wide Open 3 Pointer- Beware of the Bolts. Solid all around, Star QB, Star RB' Solid Defense. But, we've had our way with this team in recent history. Sunday Night at home in our 2nd straight primetime game, and you can add on the pressure of 2 teams fighting for there playoff lives. Very nervous about this one.
Week-17- @Buffalo Bills- Shaq shooting a Free Throw- With our playoff hopes on the line, we will go against the already eliminated Bills. Just like last years Dolphins, the Canadian Buffalos will have nothing else on there minds but keeping us out of the playoffs. 1 o'clock game, so if in fact it does come down to week 17, we may just be in control of our own fate. Not saying it will, but its very very possible. We're better than the Bills, but we were also better than the Fish last year.
So here are our totals
6 Free Throws
6 Three Pointers
Currently, we are 1 for 1 in our Free Throw games, and 0-1 in Our 3 Pointer games. Our first Lay-Up is this weekend in Miami.
If this team is as good as most of us believe, then its fair to pencil in our layups as wins, bringing us to 5 total wins.
That leaves 5 Free Throws and 5 Three Pointers, if we can manage to split evenly 5-5 in those games the Jets would end up 10-6 and should be looking at a playoff birth.
But lets not speculate, lets do the math. The NBA league free throw average is roughly 75% so 5 games X 0.75% = 3.75 Wins. im counting that as 3 wins and 1 coinflip. More math, the NBA league 3 point average is roughly 36% so the equation would be 5 games X 0.36% = 1.8 Wins. Again lets be modest and count that as 1 win and 1 coin flip. This would bring us to 4 out of 10 guarenteed wins in freethrow/3 pointer games with the possibility of 2 more wins leaving us somewhere between 9-7 and 11-5. Thats if we play average football, and thats what everyone is pegging us at, an average football team. 10-6 gets us in the playoffs, 9-7 gets us a long vacation.
So my message to the Jets organization is--- Score on all Lay-Up's, Hit most of your Free Throws, and make a couple of Three Pointets and this season will be a success.
Im sorry if i've lost anybody here, i personally think this makes a ton of sense, and i didnt have to predict any scores.
Let me know what you guys think, if im crazy, or if you'd change any of my classification's.
Also let me know if there was a better analogy out there. Thanks for your time.