Hello GGN, back to bring you the final lookback at the Jets 2011 offense. I spent last post examining the first half of the Jets season through playcalling, 3rd downs and the Redzone. Though the data will be here is well, here is what I thought:
- The Jets were more successful offensively when the ran the ball more on 1st and 2nd down. This created more favorable distances to convert on 3rd down.
- The Jets were lousy on 3rd down overall, faced too many 3rd and longs, and failed to capitalize on 3rd and shorts because they chose to pass the ball more than they should have.
- The Jets were excellent in the Redzone converting more than 90% of their scoring opportunities overall, and converting about 2/3 of those into touchdowns.
Now it's time to examine the second half of the season. Let's start with the playcalling. If you're new to the series, this table is read left to right, run/pass on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down respectively:
- Despite the fact that the Jets were more successful in the 2nd Q of the season when they ran the ball predominantly on 1st/2nd down, they reverted back to throwing the ball more in these situations in the 3rd Q of the season. The NE game skews these numbers a bit as the Jets were playing from behind a lot of the game. We will see later on if there were other factors
- In the 4th Q of the season, the Jets got back to running the ball more in 1st down, but remained a passing team on 2nd down.
- The Passing numbers on 3rd down are ridiculous, which is telling me that the Jets didn't have many 3rd and short opportunities---now on to the 3rd down numbers. Reading left to right run/pass on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down...
Here is what I gather:
- The Jets still never took advantage of their running game on 3rd and short---we still see an almost even split in playcalling (14rushes, 13 passes), even though they converted these situations much better on the ground (79% rushing, 31% passing). This needs to change next season.
- The Jets were much better in the 3rd Q of the season than the 4th Q in number of 3rd and shorts, and had many less 3rd and long situations. Here is a more detailed break down of the numbers:
- The Jets converted 18-50 3rd down opportunities in the 3rd Q of the season (36%)
- Converted 16-56 3rd down opportunities in the 4th Q of the season (29%)
- Converted 34-106 3rd down opportunities in the 2nd half (H) of the season (32%)
- Converted 11-21 3rd down opportunities on the ground in the 2nd H (52%) - Converted 23-85 3rd down opportunities through the air in the 2nd H (27%)
I'll provide a more thorough breakdown when I give you the data for the entire season, for now let's move to the redzone, this one is pretty easy to understand...
We had two criteria when evaluating the Jets' performance in the Redzone:
1) Did they convert almost all their RZ opportunities into scores?
NO,they fall short of the 90% threshold, and had 3 turnovers, and 2 missed FG's.
2) Did they convert most of their scores into touchdowns?
YES, they converted a tad more than 2/3 of their scoring opportunities into touchdowns
I have a confession to make----I've been holding out on you. What I've done in addition to the previous data is compile yardage numbers for 1st,2nd,3rd down passing and rushing by game which I then organized into quarter seasons, half seasons, and overall. Each category is either 1D,2D,3D depending on down, and R or P for Rush or Pass. Each has the overall plays followed by total yardage like this: 7/64----that would mean 7 plays for 64 yards. There are also 2 additional categories: -P and -R. -P are negative passing plays and are incompletions, interceptions, and sacks. -R are negative rushing plays and are negative gains, no gains, gains of only 1 yard, and fumbles. It is a lot to look at but we'll analyze it no worries:
The first quarter of the season saw the Jets pass most successfully on 2nd down, conversely 1st down was an issue with only about 5 yards per pass play. They were consistent running the ball on 1st down with a 4.3 average. Moving on, their success through the air continued predominantly on 2nd down with an 8 yard average. 1st down again was consistent on the ground with a 4 yard average. Also, on 3rd downs, the Jets showed good success overall in the 1st half of the season rushing, and on 2nd down passing, while their weakness in the air was on 1st down, and their weakness on the ground was 2nd down.
The third quarter of the season showed marked improvement in the air on 1st down, and a marked regression through the air on 2nd down. The 3rd down numbers are misleading on the ground-even though they rushed for a 2.7 average, they also converted 9/10 3rd downs during this stretch in the season. The final stretch of the season was very poor on 2nd and 3rd down. Most disappointing is the 3.57 average through the air on third down. You can't pass this poorly on 3rd down and expect to win.
Overall, the Jets passed well on 2nd down, poorly on 3rd down, and rushed consistently well on 1st and 3rd down and poorly on 2nd down.
On negative passing and running plays...raising the completion percentage of the QB will knock a lot of that out. With a raise to the low 60's---say 62%, the passing offense will go from 48% -P to 40-42% -P. This single improvement will cut 40 negative plays from the Jets offense during the course of the season.
Another thing I wanted to check on were the overall passing numbers for Mark Sanchez on each down. Two general observations, he passed extremely well in the redzone, but struggled on 3rd down. Here are his numbers and like always I'll attempt to discuss---:
The struggles I saw on 1st and 3rd down are represented here. On 3rd down, he was the most inconsistent, but was also sacked much more. I think a few things would help looking ahead to next season:
1) Improved personal consistency overall. I want to see Mark move from the 50's to 60's in completion percentage. One thing I noticed were a lot of outlet and short passes as well as some shots downfield, but not a lot of explotation of the defense at medium depth---there needs to be attacks on all levels of the defense. Regulars please confirm or deny this.
2) More CONSISTENT focus on the running game on early downs. This is the identity of the Jets' offense, in order for it to succeed, the running game needs to be a more integral part. This should solve much of the 3rd and long issues----this is a losing situation for any quarterback to face. Keep 3rd downs manageable. This includes not getting cute on 3rd and short---you have Greene, Connor, and Tebow, pound it down their throats on 3rd and 3 or less----use fourth down to convert if needed. This running game is more than capable of picking up 3 yards in two plays.
Something I can't help but recognize is how important Plaxico Buress was in the passing game in the Redzone. Now that he's gone, someone needs to step up or the RZ could go from a strength to a weakness very quickly.
Since I gave you the averages for the entire season, here are the play selection, 3rd down numbers, and RZ numbers in their entirety, it's nice to have these for future reference--as promised I'll provide a bit more breakdown of 3rd down, but other than that I think this is complete! Hope you enjoyed, if you have questions, ask them, cheers!
Play Selection by down, 2011 Jets Offense
3rd Downs, 2011 Jets Offense
- For the season the Jets were 69-201(34%)overall converting 3rd downs, 49-163 (30%) through the air, 20-38 (53%) on the ground. Their overall percentage ranked them 22nd in the league. For reference, 40% was good for top 10 meaning the Jets needed just 12 more conversions---this is manageable for next season.
The Redzone, 2011 Jets Offense (The Jets were 2nd in TD%)
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