Why we should trade back in this years draft ( my DraftTeck results )
As most of you guys know i'm a firm believer in getting as much value from our draft picks as possible so i tried a little experiment on DraftTeck . I wanted to see what type of value we could get by trading back so i followed the trade value chart and checked what type of extra players we could get with some extra picks .
So to start off i traded our 1st round pick to the Texans and got their 1st , 2nd and 3rd round pick in the draft . I then traded our 2nd round pick with the 49ers and got their 2nd , 3rd and 6th for that pick . That left us having the following picks
1st round pick 26 HOU
2nd round pick 58 HOU
2nd round pick 62 SF
3rd round pick 86 NYJ
3rd round pick 89 HOU
3rd round pick 93 SF
4th round pick 108 NYJ
5th round pick 150 NYJ
6th round pick 177 NYJ
6th round pick 189 SF
7th round pick 198 JAX
7th round pick 208 NYJ
As you can see from the above list of picks ,we are is a very strong position to fill plenty of the holes this team has and to add some serious depth to the team going into the future . I then had to imput the positions of need i wanted to fill . I wanted to try and come out of this draft with 2 pass rushers , 2 WR's , 2 o line players , a FS , a SS and a RB . The results of their simulation were as follows
1st round pick 26 Nick Perry OLB
2nd round pick 58 Alshon Jeffery WR
2nd round pick 62 Vinny Curry OLB
3rd round pick 86 Brandon Mosley OT
3rd round pick 89 Marvin McNutt WR
3rd round pick 92 Johnathan Massaquoi OLB
4th round pick 108 Trenton Robinson FS
5th round pick 150 Winston Guy Jr SS
6th round pick 177 Ryan Lindley QB
6th round pick 189 Matt McCants OT
7th round pick 198 Terance Ganaway RB/FB
7th round pick 208 Kevin Koger TE
As i'm sure you can see from the above list there are some players that we wouldn't get in the real draft at the positions they were given to me like Jeffery and Curry in the 2nd or Ganaway in the 7th but that results are not really what matters here . What matters is the fact by moving down in the draft ( in this example twice ) we are in a perfect position to come out of this years draft with some badly needed depth , some extra holes filled and we also increase our potential to find players that can make a difference on this team . Instead of just having 3 guys out of the first 3 rounds we can trade back and have 6 players from the first 3 rounds .
i ask you to think long and hard about what extra quality we might be able to achieve from this draft if Mike T changes things up and trades back in this draft . I think if we want a good platform for this team to make sure we have youth , depth , quality and less cap problems going into the future then this is the best way to achieve it .
Feel free to leave any comments below . Cheers for reading
45 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
You mean to say that trading-back is smart?
It is what it is
You Know It and I Know It
but the problem is that Tanny doesn’t know it. Trading down is blasphemy to him. He falls in love with and targets only a few players. He honestly don’t think he has the ability to know how to maximize value in the draft and addressing multiple needs. I’m not even sure that he isn’t in denial about the team’s needs. He’s not a football man. He’s a bean counter and attorney.
The more I think about how he has handle “building” the Jets’ roster, the more I dislike and distrust him. That doesn’t mean that the Scouting Dept., Woody and/or Rex don’t deserve some, perhaps a LOT of the blame too. Still it’s the GM’s job to talk sense into his owner, and to overrule the HC if his desires aren’t prudent. It’s also his job to insure that the Scouting Dept. does a good job. The problem is, how is he gonna know if they’ve done a good job or not since he doesn’t really know how to evaluate talent?
A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years." Alexander Tyler
+1
I like the idea of trading down and get more picks but seems our scouting department is lacking and we get too many projects and less picks than anyone else. Good scouting and good coaching will go a long way.
Example is Victor Cruz, he said teams came to look at Vlad but the Giants saw something in him and sign him undrafted. So they didn’t see too much I guess being undrafted but now he’s awesome. They are many stories like that late round picks and undrafted being real good but we never seem to have that kind of stories. Only signing older players and getting questionable picks in recent drafts. It almost like the scouting department and the FO falls asleep come draft time.
+ 1
Agreed….pretty sad when he doles out picks….Rex gets a pick….I’m guessing Woody does… that leaves the rest to Tanny so like you said he Targets. He may use up 3 of his picks for that 1 guy that we have seen so many times in the past. And how well has that turned out for us?
I’d love to see us with the strategy shown above…..my picks might be a little different in a few slots. But for the Team having those extra pieces would do the world of good for them now and down the line.
"It's only through change we learn to grow".
by Canadian Jet on Feb 13, 2012 4:09 AM EST up reply actions
Tinley:
for the most part we like the same players in this years draft. (If these are players that you like that is) but as much as I would sign up for this draft in a minute. As you mentioned this is HIGHLY unlikely to play out this way and we would be sacrificing quality for depth. If our draft philosophy is drafting for depth then we have no Revis. I do think that scouting has been off, and I do believe that this team has neglected the OLB situation for too long, but if there is a player that will give us potentially elite play; you would be insane to trade down. For example: Billicheat and the Pats in 2009 traded 23rd pick to Baltimore for their 26th pick and a 5th round selection, Baltimore picked OT Michael Oher with that pick….Wow would that have been bad if NE gets him…….Hold on it gets even better: The Pats don’t stop there, next they traded their 26th pick (from BAL) with GB for their first and another 5th rounder….. Guess who GB got: Clay Matthews…Now imagine if for one draft, just one draft that Billicheat wised up and drafted for the BPA….We would be shopping for a new QB right now because he would’ve lodged into the Meadowland turf.
I think that drafting for depth should only be played out if you truly believe that there is no one worth drafting at that spot. Another scenario where this should be accepted is if you think you can get the player you like at a lower spot, then sure make the trade.
I just wish..
I wish we could draft like the Steelers. No glaring needs ever, then come the draft they take BPA stash the guy on the bench and two or three years later they’ve got a stud that seemingly came out of no where. It happened with Lawerence Timmons, Rashard Mendenhall, and its going to happen with Ziggy Hood and Cameron Heyward. They do it everywhere and I love this way of doing it. This way when a Mike Pouncey falls to you in the middle of the 1st its a luxury taking him.
by RevisIsland&Alcrotraz on Feb 13, 2012 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
Yep
Kevin Colbert is the GM that Tanny should seek to emulate. He is the standard that other GMs must live up to.
A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years." Alexander Tyler
Oh and BTW
NE drafted CB Darius Butler with all of that trading……how much you want to bet Billichek regrets those two trades?
just to add
the above players were given to me in a simulation . i had no imput in what players they gave except the positions of players i wanted from the draft . they even stated Curry was a reach as they have him as a 3rd round pick .
last year there were decent pass rushers all throughout the first 3 rounds . we have 3 big needs to fill this year at safety , RT and OLB . because the draft is not a scientific process i.e. you are just as likely to draft a Gholston as you are a Revis then the best way to find a star is to increase the amount of players you draft especially when depth and cap room is an issue . that’s not to say that this should be the plan every year . if we have money to get a few top FA’s at positions of need then moving back makes less sense . but since the new rookie pay scale is in effect the best way to add depth this year is thru the draft .
adding depth thru the draft this year will help us with cap room next off season and should give us a better chance at signing that FA that might win us it all .
follow me on TWITTER @tinley24
i want jeffery in green at pick 16
Notre Dame vs. Navy: The Emerald Isle Classic
Date:Sept. 1, 2012
Location:Dublin, Ireland
Next step is finding a Trading partner
Check the values on the first trade with Houston, I don’t believe we can get a third round pick
your right , my bad
but hey check the values of atlanta’s trade last year . it happens
follow me on TWITTER @tinley24
i want jeffery in green at pick 16
Notre Dame vs. Navy: The Emerald Isle Classic
Date:Sept. 1, 2012
Location:Dublin, Ireland
We all know that the draft is a crap shoot however,
The Patsies have had this philosophy and, it has been catching up to them. Belishit has fallen into this trap that every player he drafts can be coached up (the midas touch).obnoxious noise! wrong answer! as we have seen, sure he might win the battle but they lose the war. The Jets need play makers period! every year the FO has addressed the weak areas, for instance the Colts ripped our secondary apart, the FO signs Cro and takes Wilson in the 1st, Pit manhandles the DL they go out and draft 2 DL. I really think they thought that Hunter was going to be a lot better since he played so well in 2010. I have faith that Tanny will work his usual cap magic this year to make some FA moves to right the ship. The lockout really effected the Jets in a big way. This off season will make this team one again.
if u notice most teams that do draft down do so because it is a money matter
why pay a 1st round player ex-amount of $$.if u can trade down and get maybe 2 players of same value as that 1st round pick..alot of 1st round picks arnt worth there Big$$$$..usually it is those in late round or those undrafted where u get Values!!!..also Jets need to draft multi-role players, that can play more than 1 position..I mean Our rival(NE) drafts a kid named Solder.now can play ALL OL positions except center BUT also can play TE!!!
by getting players like the aboove will allow Team to maybe make a trade for a higher pick and GET that Player they really want!!!…
my question is why did they re-sign Hunter?
They didn't resign Hunter, they jusrt didn't cut him, and thats because for 2.4 mil your not going to get a better backup T
I Disagree
If there aren’t at least a dozen young tackles in the NFL who would be better than Hunter and cheaper, then there’s a problem with the talent level in the NFL.
A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years." Alexander Tyler
for 2.4 mil your not going to get a better backup T
A great backup tackle is a guy you feel confident can do a good job starting if the starter tears his ACL in training camp.
An ok backup is a guy you think you can plug in for a game or two and not get exposed.
Hunter falls into the second category. So do many guys who would be cheaper. He isn’t worth the money.
Editor-In-Chief
Gang Green Nation
SB Nation's Jets Blog
http://www.ganggreennation.com
Not that I wish ill of anyone...
But I would get a good chuckle if Tony Sparano brought in Marc Colombo, who he’s been familiar with since Dallas, to compete with Hunter for the starting job at RT. That could just be the ugliest competition for a starting spot in the NFL since both Hunter and Colombo both looked they were auditioning for a WalMart Greeter position last year.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider.
Follow @Finhead83
Whiel I am 100% in agreement philosophically with this approach, and I would sign up for this draft in a minute...
…there are two very important issues with this specific draft this year. One, I don’t think you will get all those draft picks form Houston, who, BTW, is under no pressure to move up unless they want a player really badly at 16 that will not be there at 26, and that would almost have to be a WR for them based on their needs. Second, although I am in favor of getting more draft picks, given the cap situation this year and the FA’s to be signed, I don’t think you could afford to sign all the players you would draft. I would trade down and try to get some additional picks NEXT year, if there is no one we really lust for when we are on the clock. This is Sanchez’s year of decision, and also for Holmes, even though we are on the hook for $7+ million already in 2013. If either or both have years like 2011 in 2012 they will be gone, gaining some cap space in 2013.
Wow,
that draft looks amazing! If this is realistic with the players and all, I would definitely consider trading down if I was a GM.
Just want to say about Alshon Jeffery...
rumors surfaced this week that during this offseason he has run in the 4.8’s in the 40 yard draft and at what was described as a “bloated” 249 pounds. People were wondering if he had the work ethic to improve his physique this offseason…looks like we might have our answer folks.
Source: http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7441/alshon-jeffery
I know you like him Tinley, but I will disagree with you until the end of time and will stand firm on my belief that he should not even be considered by the Jets.
"Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
Leo Durocher
I'm on Twitter: @LiveLoveNYJets
Frequent blogger for GGN and MTD
Staff Blogger for nflmocks.com
If he's there in the second round, that would be fantastic
I don’t care if he runs a 5.7, the guy can play football.
Meh.
I’d rather take an exciting, physical, in-shape player like Chris Givens, Reuben Randle, Juron Criner, Brian Quick, or Dwight Jones. I hate Jeffery. He obviously is tall and can catch the ball, but besides that, there really isn’t much to like.
"Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
Leo Durocher
I'm on Twitter: @LiveLoveNYJets
Frequent blogger for GGN and MTD
Staff Blogger for nflmocks.com
by LiveLoveNYJets on Feb 13, 2012 7:30 PM EST up reply actions
He obviously is tall and can catch the ball,
the most important thing for a wr is to catch the ball , see wes welker . if all jeffery can do is catch the ball then sign me up
follow me on TWITTER @tinley24
i want jeffery in green at pick 16
Notre Dame vs. Navy: The Emerald Isle Classic
Date:Sept. 1, 2012
Location:Dublin, Ireland
I can catch a football.
Can I be on the Jets?
"Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
Leo Durocher
I'm on Twitter: @LiveLoveNYJets
Frequent blogger for GGN and MTD
Staff Blogger for nflmocks.com
by LiveLoveNYJets on Feb 13, 2012 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
i look great at the combine , can i be a football player
no vernon , you suck .
follow me on TWITTER @tinley24
i want jeffery in green at pick 16
Notre Dame vs. Navy: The Emerald Isle Classic
Date:Sept. 1, 2012
Location:Dublin, Ireland
you ready for the draft this weekend ?
follow me on TWITTER @tinley24
i want jeffery in green at pick 16
Notre Dame vs. Navy: The Emerald Isle Classic
Date:Sept. 1, 2012
Location:Dublin, Ireland
Yessir.
"Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
Leo Durocher
I'm on Twitter: @LiveLoveNYJets
Frequent blogger for GGN and MTD
Staff Blogger for nflmocks.com
by LiveLoveNYJets on Feb 13, 2012 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
yeah i heard he ran a 4.88 40 but its unconfirmed
he also had to deal with a few small injuries since the end of the season so that could hamper his ability to train properly .
also jerry rice ran a 4.71 40 . i’d rather draft a guy who isn’t a workout warrior than a Gholston . i have never seen a game decided by combine results . i’d rather go by his play on the field and in that regard if he comes to us in shape we have the best wr in the draft hands down . i hope he keeps falling and we get him in the 2nd round . if you look at his 2010 season where he destroyed every top CB in the country , remember he can be that player again
follow me on TWITTER @tinley24
i want jeffery in green at pick 16
Notre Dame vs. Navy: The Emerald Isle Classic
Date:Sept. 1, 2012
Location:Dublin, Ireland
Those trades are insanely optimistic
Getting a 2nd and 3rd round pick for moving just 10 spots down? Maybe if we had the #1 overall pick, not #16. We’d get their 1st and 3rd and a lower pick at best. Also who are the Texans and 49ers wanting so bad they’d give up two extra picks to have them (especially in the 2nd round for the 49ers)?
by Exystence on Feb 13, 2012 7:55 PM EST via mobile reply actions
read the above comments
i added a 3rd from the texans by mistake . but to move down 10 spots gets us an extra 2nd . the SF trade is spot on value wise
maybe the texans want to move up for floyd or the 49ers might want to add a player that drops . who knows . the point is trades happen every year . if a team wants a player they will trade up
follow me on TWITTER @tinley24
i want jeffery in green at pick 16
Notre Dame vs. Navy: The Emerald Isle Classic
Date:Sept. 1, 2012
Location:Dublin, Ireland
Why drafting a QB in the 6th?
Tinley;
Really like the post here fella. Just don’t understand the need to waste a pick on a 6th round QB this season. We drafted one last year in the 7th and he should be our #3 for this year. It’s not like this guy will be the 2nd coming of T. Brady ( or do you know something we don’t?). This is the make or break year for Sanchez. For 2013 we will be drafting a QB guaranteed somewhere early. So why not save that pick and use it to fullfil some depth at positions of need? Another DL/NT in case we lose Ellis to extradition in May? Another OL…can’t have enough after last year…especially after we cut Hunter & Ducasse.
What do you think?
"It's only through change we learn to grow".
i had qb as a low end need and that the picks draftteck gave me
none of these guys were my choice at all
follow me on TWITTER @tinley24
i want jeffery in green at pick 16
Notre Dame vs. Navy: The Emerald Isle Classic
Date:Sept. 1, 2012
Location:Dublin, Ireland
The draft chart is separate for each club and the ones that are out there are mostly very old.
I don’t think the Jets could realistically pull in Houston’s 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick for their first rounder.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider.
Follow @Finhead83
I Know That Lindley Wasn't Your Pick
But he was absolutely awful at the Senior Bowl. No accuracy, questionable arm. I’ll be surprised if he’s drafted at all.
A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years." Alexander Tyler
He'll be drafted because his stock was once higher, but he's been falling for the entire year.
He entered 2011 looking like he could be a 2nd round pick. Now he’ll be lucky if he’s a 4th rounder. Tannehill, Osweiler, Cousins, and Foles will all go before he does.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider.
Follow @Finhead83
Oh, I forgot Weeden.
- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.
Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider.
Follow @Finhead83
You're Probably Right
if for no other reason than the scarcity of QBs in the NFL. If some QBs who have proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that they can’t play worth spit are still in the NFL , then someone will take a flyer on Lindley. I wouldn’t wasted my time with him even as a UDFA however. Now watch him become the next Tom Brady. LOL
A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years." Alexander Tyler
So by this logic, what pick were you personally looking to trade?
I think the 3rd could go if Tanny feels like theres a decent amount of good, but not great type in the 6th/7th area. I like the idea but only with the stipulation that we know were absolutely not giving up any steals in the 3rd round. I wouldn’t touch the first or second round pick unless you can get either a big time pass rusher or safety thats NFL ready, and even then it’s a really tough sell for me.
looks good
but will teams make those trades with us? will those players be available. i would be really happy with perry and curry and extra picks. i dont know about those tackles though, and i think it is a priority for us after pass rush. we also need to draft a punter at some point.
I like the idea of trading down, in general.
I am with joeklecko and several others who site our lack of mid and late-round picks over the last five years as the main culprit in our situation. We have essentailly “missed” an entire draft in that time span.
And I agree with the growing consensus that this draft has a lot of value at the positions we need.
But I am beginning to re-think the idea of trading down in the first if Ingram is there. I think he is the last real stud LB who could step in and start and make an immediate impact. I believe other good guys would still be available, but not the game-changing type I think he will become. If he is there at 16 and Curry might be there in the 2nd, don’t move. Otherwise, trade down and stock up.
I like the point your making. this should be front page stuff.
I know from history, and from Tanny’s own mouth that they like to target players that they really like after working them out and interviewing and aggresively pursue them. He said that he’d rather have 2 or 3 really good players for him, than 7 guys that were ok at their position.
Maybe time and history has changed the philosophy though. Rex has already come out and said he’s not guaranteeing super bowls. Maybe they change things up to get things done in a better way. 16 is a good spot to trade back because of how many players will still potentially be available that the Jets could need. Nick Perry, Courtney Upshaw, Richardson, Whitney, Barron, Alshon Jeffrey, Burflict, Malcomb Floyd. If more than a few of those guys are available, there is no need to stay at 16. Trade back and pick up a pass rusher and an extra pick or two.

by 

















