I know many of you are clamoring for a QB in the first couple rounds. Its understandable. Our QB situation is absolutely horrendous. It has been depressing to watch, and as has been proven, in this league any modicum of playoff success is dependent on who is behind the helm.
Smackdad wrote a provacotive post about the chances of finding a Franchise QB. He basically hypothesized that in order to have a successful dynasty, you must gamble on finding a Franchise Quarterback. It seems this year more than ever we are watching Rookie QBs lead their teams to success. Andrew Luck in Indianapolis, Robert Griffin III in Washington, Colin Kapernick in SF, Russell Wilson in SEA, and Andy Dalton in Cincy.
Why not us you ask?
Here's why: Of those QBs, Two are Future Hall of Fame Contenders and the other Three are supported by elite defenses and brilliant offensive minds. When evaluating what makes a successful team in the NFL, teams like SF, Seattle, and Cincy should be noticed and emulated. These teams have undergone recent revampings, hiring new Coaches with new schemes, but none are appearing out of nowhere. The road to success has been long and hard, with many disappointing seasons in recent memory.
The point is, unless you are the worst team in the league (IND last year & KC this year) the path to success is forged by building a cohesive unit of play makers that can impose their will on opponents. Before going for broke and drafting a Franchise QB, you must build a team that has the depth and strength to handle the risk of trading up. Imagine if RGIII had Ryan Leaf'ed or Mark Sanchez'ed, Washington, they would of been completely screwed.
Unless you are completely certain that a QB is something special it is ill advisable to trade big to get him. The Jet's selection of Sanchez was the tipping point of this paradigm. They moved up right before the Salary Cap was instilled, forking over draft picks and millions of dollars for a QB that ultimately accomplished nothing. Yes, yes he lead us to to Championship appearances, but we all know that was the product of a Win-Now Philosophy that didn't pan out. Now we are paying for it and my suggestion before we make a move on another QB is work to repair our terrible Cap situation, install a new Regime, and build a franchise that is cohesive, intimidating, and consistent.
First: I propose that we trade either Cro or Revis. Testing the market for both of them, would allow GM to determine upside. At this point I'm leaning towards Cromartie. His stock is at its peak, higher than any point during his career, and with Revis rehabbing the ACL the Jets have a good bargaining piece for a reasonable contract. You don't trade away the best corner in the league without some serious compensation. If we do trade I look for draft picks, I would not be opposed considering backs like LeGarrete Blounte or a Safety to replace Bell.
Second: We do not, I repeat, do not trade for Alex Smith. Unless the dude miraculously wants a minimum, incentive based contract there is just no way we can afford him. Smith is not the long term solution for QB, and is too expensive to be a patch work during the rebuilding process. I suggest we bite the bullet and deal with the fact that Sanchez is far from tradable and look towards Flynn or Cassell.
Say this happens:
Lose to Buffalo (6-10). Pick roughly 10th in Draft:
- Round 1 Potential Picks: Manti T'eo (ILB), Luke Joeckel (OT), Dion Jordan (DE), Barkevious Mingo (DE) --> OR --> Trade Back & Double Dip at LB/O-Line.
- Round 2: Tyler Eifert (TE), Eric Reid (S), Giovani Bernard (RB), Robert Woods (WR), OT
- Round 3: Marcus Lattimore (RB --> rehab will hurt his draft stock), OT, WR, S
- Round 4: CB, OT, TE, LB, S
- Round 5: S, WR, TE, CB
Draft by Position:
- ILB/OLB: 1st or 2nd round: could potentially a double dip in the 2nd-5th round
- OT: 2nd - 5th round
- RB: 2nd - 4th round
- WR: 4th - 7th round
- TE: 3rd - 6th round
- S/CB: 3rd - 7th round
Cuts or Trades: This gives us room to make some cuts and save some Cap Space. I'd like to state right now that our management of our Linebacker salaries are absolutely disgusting. Their price for their output is one of the most crippling aspects of our team rivaling our QB debacle. Anyway, some possible cuts/trades are:
Bart Scott: Cap Saving --> $7.15million... Dead Money --> $1.5 million = $5.65million cap bonus
Eric Smith: Cap Saving --> $3.00 million...Dead Money --> $0 = $3.00 million dollar cap bonus
Calvin Pace: Cap Saving --> $8.56 million...Dead Money --> $3.01 million = $5.55 million cap bonus
Tim Tebow: Cap Saving --> $1.53 million...Dead Money --> $1million = $530,000 cap bonus
Dustin Keller?: Cap Saving --> $3.15 million...Dead Money --> $836,000 = $2.3 million cap bonus
Mark Sanchez: Cap Saving --> $4.3 million...Dead Money --> $17 million = $12.7 million cap hit
Antonio Cromartie: Cap Saving --> $1.25 million ... Dead Money--> $9.5 million = $8.25 million cap hit
Sione Pouha: Cap Saving --> 3.83 million ... Dead Money --> $2.33 million = $1.50 million cap bonus
Jason Smith: Cap Saving --> $12 million ... Dead Money --> $0 = $12 million cap bonus
LaRon Landry: As Smack informed resigning him just isn't in the cards given our cap situation
Projected Starting Roster:
DC will have a pretty mauling Defense to work with:
- D-Line: Coples, Wilk, Kenrick, Devito, Pouha.
- Linebackers: Harris, McIntyre, Davis, Mauga, Draft Pick (1st or 2nd), Draft Pick (2nd or 3rd)
- Cornerbacks: Revis, Wilson, Trufant, Aaron Berry, Draft Pick (4th - 7th)
- Safeties: Bell, Allen, Bush, Draft Pick?
- QB: Veteran (Flynn, Cassell, Quinn etc), Sanchez (possibly cut), McElroy.
- OL: Mangold, Brick, Ducasse, Moore, Smith, Howard, Draft Pick (2nd- 6th)
- RB: Draft Pick (2nd - 5th), Trade Option, Greene, McKnight, Powell = a decently legit RB competition
- WR: Holmes, Kereley, Hill, Schillens, Edwards, Draft Pick (4th - 7th)
- TE: Draft Pick (3rd - 6th), Cumberland, Baker, Smith, and Reuland.
We have come to crucial point for this Franchise. How Woody handles it will determine the Jet's future for the next decade. My point in writing all this is that we have the basic framework for success. But in order to get what we want we have to be patient. First and foremost we need a new Regime with a focused vision. We need to be smart about our cap, conscientious about the long term goal. Watching Seattle absolutely manhandle SF paints a picture of what this team could be. I want it, I want it bad. Here's to trusting the owner of our team to make it happen.