A Statistical Oddity

by Smackdad on Jan 9, 2012 5:24 PM EST

Not sure quite what to make of this. As John B. has documented so well, Sanchez really struggles with accuracy. His ability to throw into tight windows is shaky at best. So... what to make of this....

The Jets were the best team in the NFL at converting red zone possessions into TDs. That's right, #1, better than NE, better than GB, better than NO, better than anyone. That is reflected in Sanchez's 26 TD passes. He placed near the bottom in nearly every statistical category, except TDs. The only reasonable explanation for that is his red zone performance, where he had 21 TDs and only 3 INTs. His completion percentage in the red zone was 53%, and his QB rating was 89.1

Now, you might think that red zone QB ratings are naturally higher than overall QB ratings, because a large majority of TD passes occur in the red zone. Yet this is where it gets strange. Check out the red zone stats for the Big 3 QBs this year -- Brady, Brees and Rodgers, and then Sanchez:

Brady had a Comp % of 65.6 and a QB Rating of 105.6 His Red Zone #s were 57.6 and 95.5.

Brees had a Comp % of 71.2 and a QB Rating of 110.6 His Red Zone #s were 63.0and 98.8.

Rodgers had a Comp % of 68.3 and a QB Rating of 122.5 His Red Zone #s were 63.1 and 107.0.

Now check out Sanchez.

Sanchez had a Comp % of 56.7 and a QB Rating of 78.2 His Red Zone #s were 53.2 and 89.1.

The surprising takeaway from these stats: Sanchez gets better in the red zone, when all others get worse. Each of the Big Three lost anywhere from 5 to 8 percentage points in Completion % in the red zone -- Sanchez only lost 3.5 points. Even more surprising, each of the Big Three lost anywhere from 10 to 15 points off his QB Rating --- amazingly, Sanchez GAINED 11 points. In fact while overall Sanchez is not in the same zip code as the Big Three, in Red Zone QB Rating he is within shouting distance of being their equal.

So we are left with a quandary -- how does a QB who we all see struggles with accuracy and fitting throws into tight windows somehow excel in the Red Zone, where windows are extremely tight and accuracy is everything? It is a puzzle for which I have no answer. Anyone have any ideas?

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QBR rating takes TD's and INT's into account

Since he threw more touch downs his QBR went up. The other guys were just throwing them from 30 yards out instead of in the red zone maybe. That’s definately the case for Brees and Rodgers.

by manuvsteal on Jan 9, 2012 6:11 PM EST reply actions

+1

if its for you it won't pass you

by tinley24 on Jan 9, 2012 7:09 PM EST up reply actions

Well, Yes, But...

I was really interested in getting at the Why? aspect of this. Yes, Sanchez threw a higher percentage of his TDs in the Red Zone then the other guys, but why? Sanchez’s efficiency and performance were significantly better in the Red Zone; all others were significantly worse. Inside the 20, Sanchez approached elite status, while the elite slid toward mortal status. Doesn’t that fly in the face of the view that Sanchez can’t be accurate and can’t fit throws into tight windows? In the Red Zone, it’s all tight windows, yet Sanchez thrived there while he floundered when given more room to operate. Maybe it’s not his accuracy that’s the problem. Maybe it’s something like this: he does better when he has fewer options to consider. No deep routes, smaller route trees, fewer decisions. Maybe he can be accurate as long as he doesn’t have to think too much. Not really sure, but his stats sure don’t LOOK like someone whose biggest problem is accuracy.

by Smackdad on Jan 9, 2012 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

I think QBR is bullshit.

Guys like Cutler and Fitzpatrick put up very solid QBR’s but can never do enough or be excellent when they need to to get the win, even when the rest of their team is doing well.

by JetKing55 on Jan 9, 2012 6:36 PM EST reply actions

I agree, QBR is too subjective

by BIG OH!!!!! on Jan 9, 2012 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

On average Red Zone numbers are lower

because there is a smaller area of the field to cover. Hence the “big three’s” slightly worse numbers. I tend to think Sanchez’ RZ numbers are a fluke. Since the sample size is small (compared to the whole year/field) a few flipped TD/INTs can change the picture dramatically. Brian Burke did a study on this a few years back and found with respect to completion percentage (not quite what you are looking at here) the RZ numbers fluctuate a lot year to year so that there really is no such thing as a good RZ QB if said QB is not good overall. It is possible that there just was some great playcalling (Moore) and extra care by Sanchez here, but my biggest worry about Sanchez’ numbers in 2011 was that as bad as they were, they were boosted by what seems to be unsustainable RZ numbers.

by Buzzy on Jan 9, 2012 7:29 PM EST reply actions

He's done it 3 yrs straight.

2009 Overall QBR 63.0; Red Zone QBR 85.9
2010 Overall QBR 75.3; Red Zone QBR 86.1
2011 Overall QBR 78.2; Red Zone QBR 89.1

It’s really odd. 3 years straight much better in the Red Zone. He really seems to just get better there, when other QBs get worse.

by Smackdad on Jan 9, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions

Even his Ints are down in the Red Zone

Int% overall career — 3.6%
Int% Red Zone career — 2.9%

So… best Red Zone efficiency in the NFL 2011; every year of career substantial improvement in QBR in Red Zone vs. rest of field; and lower career Int rate in Red Zone vs. rest of field. All of that points to a QB who can thrive in tight windows, yet Sanchez only seems to do it in the Red Zone. Strange.

by Smackdad on Jan 9, 2012 8:03 PM EST up reply actions

If it was just one year thing I would write it off as fluke..

But with every year of his career I’d say you must be onto something. The only thing that I can think of is that when he is down by the red zone hes feels more justified to take a chance and try and make a play. In Schotty’s Scheme his whole career Sanchez has been told not to loose the game, he doesn’t play to win he plays to not make mistakes and let the D try and make plays to win it. I think when he is down by the end zone he feels more like he can just go for it and play football, because not only will the score help the team out but if he does toss a pick it likely won’t put the defense in too bad of field position thus not loosing the game. The final thing I can think of is that Sanchez just wants it more…I’ve seen him dive head first into the endzone trying to score countless times and you can tell he wants to score. He’s not just trotting towards the endzone and sliding to avoid getting hit, the man is on a mission, and he wants to get six points.(As evident by his 6 rushing TDs)

by RhodesRocks on Jan 10, 2012 6:53 AM EST up reply actions

Interesting.

by Buzzy on Jan 9, 2012 8:31 PM EST up reply actions

Rec'd Interesting Point and Question to Ponder

Good work. Thanks.

"Reality is purely the perception of the individual mind. It follows, that since no two minds are alike, no two perceptions of reality are alike. It further follows, that what reality is to one, may seem complete madness to someone else."

– Yefim Novikov

by joeklecko on Jan 9, 2012 8:49 PM EST reply actions

Because he's throwing to Plaxico Burress, who's catch radius is the size of Texas.

This isn’t rocket science. Defenses either left themselves vulnerable by covering Plax solo, or they had to overcompensate to take him away and left themselves vulnerable elsewhere.

A real OC would have used Plax more for 3rd down conversions. A real QB would have checked out of crap OC calls and went to Plax more in 3rd down spots too, especially 3rd and short.

But lets not try to make the case that Sanchez is actually an accurate passer, ok? Is that a deal? Because I really did see miss routine throws to wide open receivers over and over and over and over. That DID happen.

by Crackback on Jan 10, 2012 7:39 AM EST reply actions

Plax has only been here one year.

The better Red Zone performance has been going on all 3 years of Sanchez’ career, and was most pronounced in his first year, when he had neither Plax nor Santonio. So whatever the explanation is, it isn’t Plax.

by Smackdad on Jan 10, 2012 8:32 AM EST up reply actions