Overdue for a Playoff Shakeup
Why even bother winning twelve games when a screwy playoff system awards an 8-8 team with home field advantage? The Steelers won four more games than the Broncos. Four! Isn’t playing in the NFL about winning football games not so much winning titles?
Had the Steelers been playing at home, it probably wouldn’t be too far off the mark to say the outcome of the game would have been more favorable for them.
With the 2011 season playoffs nearly over, a new Super Bowl champion will soon hoist the Lombardi Trophy. But for some teams, the playoff road wasn’t quite as easy or as short as it was for other teams. Some of that makes sense. Some of that doesn’t.
And even still, some deserving teams sometimes don’t get to set their spikes on the road to the playoffs while others with worse records do. The current playoff system is flawed for sure.
Can it be made more fair? Can it be made more competitive? Can it be made more fun for more fans? Yes, yes, yes. Even players and owners can stand to benefit from a little shakeup.
Let’s first take a step back a year. In the 2010 season, the Seahawks made the playoffs based on entitlement with a 7-9 record in a sad division. They won the division, so it was reasonably okay for them to get in.
However, the real travesty is that the 10-6 Giants and 10-6 Buccaneers didn’t get into the playoffs. This should never have happened. Football players make a lot of money for what? To win games, that’s what. It’s about the W’s.
And it wasn’t the first time something like this happened, either. In 2008, the 8-8 Chargers took the division. This squeezed out the 11-5 Patriots and 9-7 Jets. So, a team plays all season long to only lose five games but doesn’t get into the playoffs when an 8-8 team does? This is pure nonsense.
If you happen to be a wronged fan and your team now sits on the couch instead of being in the hunt, then it’s as painful as cleats grinding into an Achilles injury.
The main problem is that each conference has six disproportionate births—four division winners and only two wildcards.
Remember, before the number of divisions per conference changed from three to four, in 2002, there were three wildcard teams that made it into the playoffs. That’s half division leaders and half wildcards.
But in the years building up to the thirty-two teams we have now, no additional playoff slots were opened even though four new teams were added since 1990, the year when the number of playoff slots were first set at twelve.
Add More Teams
The number of slots the current playoff system has doesn’t always assure the best of the best get in. Eight of the twelve teams that currently make the playoffs get in irrespective of their overall record just as long as their record relative to their division is the best. This means a team can get in with an 8-8 record or even a losing record.
Only four teams can actually make the playoffs based on pure performance after the division leaders are set aside. That’s two per conference. That number is just too small.
The proposal is simple. Add two teams per conference, which gives four wildcards and four division leaders. That’s back to fifty-fifty, a healthy ratio. This would now give a total of sixteen teams instead of just twelve.
And a couple more teams making the playoffs is good for the fans and good in terms of revenue, which seems to be of keen interest in the NFL.
This change also mitigates the fact that sometimes there are weak divisions. A team from a weak division will still get a showing but strong divisions can be better represented.
With this change alone, the 2010 Giants and Buccaneers and the 2008 Patriots and Jets would have made a well deserved entrance into the playoffs.
Seed Based Solely on Record
Division winners are seeded higher automatically. This ain’t right. Okay, you win your division—that gets you into the dance. But it shouldn’t give you cuts in front of the non-division winners with better records.
Football should be about wins and loses. Yes, divisional play is important. But once playoff time comes, seeding should be done by record. And the teams with the best records should be the ones that earn home field advantage. Again, look at the Steelers and Broncos this year. This was backwards.
Eliminate Byes
Is this not football we’re playing here? So the best of the best can only win if they get a freebie? Already the top teams are getting a seeding advantage and a home field advantage. There is no need for byes. In fact, it is completely unfair.
Football is about a game that’s played on the field. The greats are great because they play not don’t play. A bye gives a team more time to rest, heal, practice, and prepare. Why not just have the other teams play on one foot or tie down one hand while you’re at it. If a team has to win in football by not playing football, then this is a copout and cheap way to win.
History doesn’t even show byes are all they’re chalked up to be. Last year, the 10-6 Packers didn’t get a bye but won the Super Bowl. This year the 15-1 Packers got a bye and were one and done.
Good Bracket, Good Sense
Sixteen turns out to be a great number for a bracket. With the elimination of the byes, all sixteen teams would play on the first week of playoffs. That’s eight playoff games.
Simply seed each conference from 1 to 8 and bingo, the best plays the worst and the bracket is set. It does not change. Teams know who they’ll play from start, just like in the college hoops tourney. After the first week, then the number of games per week would be the same as it is now.
The current ridiculous bracket can be dumped. It doesn’t even start off as a true bracket. The lowest seed remaining after the two wildcard games gets to play the number one seed. Just more stacking the deck for the top seed.
I’d simply like to printout my bracket at the start of the playoffs, not a week into it, so I can avoid all the convolutions and arrow drawing. Compare this year’s "bracket" to the bracket with all the proposed changes.
Potential Drawbacks, Not so Much
It is hard to think of any negatives with this proposed solution. But there may be some. Some people will point to the fact that by allowing in two extra teams per conference, the playoffs are basically being diluted. But in truth the data doesn’t support this notion very well.
Looking over all the seasons since the implementation of the four divisions per conference in 2002, twenty-six teams would have been added with winning records, fourteen with 8-8 records, and only two with losing records of 7-9.
So, is a 7-9 team really that much of a dilution? How about going back to the 2010 Seahawks? They beat the 11-5 Saints in the first round. Hardly a slacker performance by the Seahawks. But to throw in a little twist, the Seahawks got home field advantage because they won the division, and this seeded them higher than the Saints.
These changes should be welcome to many fans, players, and owners alike throughout the NFL. Nearly every team would have benefitted now if by this proposed playoff system was implemented in 2002. Moving forward, it gives teams proper opportunities, enhances competition, equals more football games, and it emphasizes first and foremost that the playoffs are a reward for playing and winning football games.
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I don't have a problem with it as is
You gotta play the teams in your division and win your division. An 8-8 team in one division could perhaps have gone 10-6 in another division or 6-10 in yet another.
This pretty much
Steelers could have won their division, if they had beaten the Ravens.
"Mark D: the internet's foremost chronicler of Milburian insanity" - Pretty Good Idiot
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Not usually
When you win your division at 8-8 it means your division sucks. It is another reason to seed by record.
I agree with you on this system. I’ve felt the current system is flawed. As far as someone in another division winning more games that is reflected by them beating up the other teams in their conference. The Raiders went 8-0 in their division yet finished 8-8 one year. Just because you can beat the teams in your division won’t get you in the playoffs in a revised playoff system. Move the Pats to any other division they would still be in the playoffs. The system Dan came up with would negate winning a weak division and not beating out of division teams and still making the playoffs and reward good teams in tough divisions with more playoff spots.
I agree I think that something has to change with the system.
And I said this after last year. I think if a Wildcard Team has at least 2 more wins than a divisional champ they should get a home field advantage, but keep the Division Winner in the playoffs.. Say the Jets go 14-2 next year and the Patriots go 16-0, the Jets are supposed to be the 5th seed because of that and an 8-8 team gets a home field advantage.
And the home of the .... JETS!!!
Now lets get a G-D snack!!!
"You might not like that. You might be very cynical about that. Well, f**k it, I don't care what you think."-Roy McDonald
Bottom of the list on the totem pole of things to really care about
Want a home playoff game, win your division. Is it totally fair? No, but, whatever.
by J-Nasty on Jan 27, 2012 7:19 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Without even digging there are 2 major flaws in your proposal
One, eliminating the bye eliminates the biggest incentive to get the top seed or the 2nd seed.
Second and more importantly, the scheduling would be a nightmare on the first weekend, having to fit 8 games in on different time slots between 2 days. Playing 2 games at once is completely out of the question, so your proposal would require the NFL to find a block of 13ish hours that wouldn’t totally alienate either coast.
by J-Nasty on Jan 27, 2012 7:35 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I think the system should be left as is.
What gets devalued in a big way if more teams make the playoffs (same if you can have a home game in the first round even though you’ve lost your division) is divisional games. If there was no substantial value to winning the division, the six games a year against division rivals lose major importance. Now, each one of those games is like a mini playoff game, fans are psyched, players are psyched – games like that mobilize a fan base. And that’s what the NFL wants. If every game was of basically equal importance and you didn’t care if the Pats came to town or if Arizona was coming in, you’d have a much more boring regular season.
No Mas
I prefer it the way it is
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The higher seed is your reward for winning your division. It is better that way. It gives teams something to play for at season’s end.
But just the same, a weak division could propel a team to have a winning record
Take the AFC West. Three teams are 8-8 and one team is 7-9. Do all those team stink? Or did they beat up on each other? If the division was weaker, the Broncos could have been 11-5 perhaps.
Its the playoffs were you settle these debates.
by CervezaVerde on Jan 28, 2012 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
At the end of the day...
You need to win your division. I like that. In fact I love that. From day one you control your own destiny. There is no poll and no voting. Win and you’re in. Having wild cards is nice and I’m glad we have them but I never feel bad for teams with great records that miss the playoffs—my own included. Had you won your division you’d be in. That’s what truly fosters division rivalries which are some of the best things in the NFL.
Wins do not necessarily dictate who is better anyway. While I have a lot of respect for the 49ers and what they did this year, I don’t think they end up with that record in any division that isn’t in the west. Win your division. Being a wild card is a privilege but you’re still a division loser. Pure win-loss ratios make sense among teams in the same divisions but less so outside.
The only change I’d like to see is the requirement of having a winning record. Division winner or not, if you can’t manage a record above .500 then I don’t think you should be in the playoffs period. Add another wild card at that point. If the winner of a division is sporting an 8-8 record then their division—while probably competitive—has stunk it up outside of its own confines.
With all that said, if you can’t beat the Tebow led Broncos in the playoffs then you really deserved to lose and lose hard. Home field advantage or not, no team that was a legitimate contender would have lost that game.
One more thing.
A change I would like to see would not be in the playoffs but in scheduling: all common games played out of division should take place on the same field by which I mean if the AFC East plays the NFC East (like this year) then all the games should either be home or away and then other division you play (the AFC West for us this year) should be the opposite.
If I have to play against the AFC North and I get the Browns and Bengals at home but travel to play the Ravens and the Steelers whereas my main division rival gets the opposite schedule, I’d say they have a pretty decent advantage.
So I’d like scheduling to look more like AFC East @ NFC East and AFC West @ AFC East. I think that would be a lot more fair within the division itself.
Draft order system also
The draft order needs to be changed also in relation to how far teams advance in playoffs. Remember 2 years ago when the Jets were 9-7 and made it to the AFC championship, only to end up picking after San Diego who was 13-3 and won their division. Think it should just go based on record.
The proposed system eliminates the Bye Week?
If you want to add two more teams (not sure I’d be for that), you should make it flow like this:
5 vs 8 – Winner A
6 vs 7 – Winner B
3 vs Lower of A/B – Winner X
4 vs Higher of A/B – Winner Y
1 vs Lower of X/Y – Winner M
2 vs Higher of X/Y – Winner N
M vs N – Winner AFC Champ
Gets other teams in the playoffs while still giving teams Bye Weeks. Should also entice teams to player harder in Week 17 to prevent rust. I still think the Division Winners should be Seeds 1-4, but then the non-winners can duke it out for the WC slots.
Then again, I like the current system.
Or, even better...
…If eight teams qualify, teams with the best records get to pick their opponent. That would be crazy. Like a draft for opponents.
by Richard Hill on Jan 28, 2012 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

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