After reading Crack's post on people's silly mocks I decided to take an extensive look at what a realistic, dream, and ideal mock looks like to me. I mentioned how this may be a little extensive so although it may be a little dry, I wanted to provide some rationale as to how I came to the conclusions that I have come to. Although I have no football experience, limited football knowledge and wouldn't be able to scout, I have learned a lot from reading people's posts/comments ( John B., tinley, AFCEASTBEAST, Crackback, JetKing, JoeKlecko, and many others) and I have come up with a list of prospects that would make sense for the Jets. To show you how I have come up with the Pre-Senior Bowl, Pre-Combine and Pre-team workout mock draft Rounds 1. I will show highlights of prospects, attempt to scout players, make semi-calculated guesses on what the Jets and other teams will do through FA, and base other teams picks based off of recent draft history, coaching changes, and who they might believe to be the BPA or BPN (best player by need). Again sorry for the long and dry opening paragraph, more after the jump.
To start off with I believe the Jets draft philosophy is drafting the BPA instead of the BPN (best player by need). You can see this based off of the Mike Tannebaum era of drafting. Since 2006 we have drafted the BPA available in almost every round. Often we have sacrificed quantity for quality which has benefited us.
1st round prospects:
QB RB: Trent Richardson WR: Justin Blackmon, Alshon Jeffrey, Kendall Wright, Mohamed Sanu TE G C OT: Riley Reiff, Jonathon Martin DE NT OLB: (Including DE's that can make the transition) Courtney Upshaw, Nick Perry, Whitney Mercilus, Melvin Ingram, Zach Brown, VINNY CURRY ILB: Luke Kuelchy, Vontaze Burfict CB S: (Includes CB's that can transition to Safety) CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Mark Barron
Explaination: Now I think that you can take off Martin and Reiff. I think that if Kareem McKenzie hits the open market or Joe Staley does then we will go after them hard. Nonetheless, I think we will address the Right Door (Wayne Hunter) in the 2nd-4th round. The other position that I could see getting addressed is safety. Whether it is Tyvon Branch, or Michael Griffin. Maybe we trade for a safety I am not too sure. But I do think that FA will leave us until round 3 to address the position. Also at QB, I think that the Jets will be looking for a veteran QB who can provide a challenge for Sanchez. The first quarterbacks that come to MY mind are Orton, or Josh Johnson; however due to all of these coaching staff moves that the Jets are making I wouldn't be surprised if we sign Chad Henne. Sigh.
With those positions explained, I want to go over a dream, ideal, and likely draft board that the Jets will have for the prospects that are left for the 1st round.
Jets Top 10 Board: It depends on who you consoder to be the BPA and what best will affect the team. This team is lacking in 3 major areas. Pass blocking on the right side, young OLB's, and a deep field threat opposite Holmes (and yes I do believe we are keeping him, he is too expensive to cut and we would be getting 6th round value for a cancerous, underperforming #2 WR.)
With those needs in mind I'll show you what I believe could be the FO's Top 5 best prospects in the 1st round for the Jets:
- OLB Courtney Upshaw
- WR Justin Blackmon
- WR Alshon Jeffrey
- RB Trent Richardson
- WR Mohamed Sanu
- Rationale: Upshaw is told to be the best bet among the 3-4 OLB's in this draft. Although I think that it would be a stretch to say that one day he will be elite, I do think that he can put up a respectable 7-9 sacks a year. My reasoning for this is because so far I haven't seen that elite burst or top notch speed to get past the 1st defender on a regular basis. He appears to be very smart on the field though, and he is able to identify what the offense is doing and is a non stop hustle player. Sure tackling, good build and a small array of different pass rushing skills.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2NGJD_naF0
Blackmon: Lethal weapon that isn't afraid to go over the middle, sure hands, dynamic speed, and a great red zone target. Consistently put up great stats, but in my opinion Alshon Jeffrey would be better served on this team rather than Blackmon. If he falls to the Jets though I have a hard time imagining us passing him up.
Jeffrey: 6'4 229 lbs. Long arms, great run blocking, average speed, can win a jumpball, and with a little more strength and conditioning he could turn into the next 99% man's version of T.O. (when he was in his prime and minus the bad personality) He has dynamic playmaking ability, he has red zone target written all over him, has already beaten the best at the collegiate level, He uses his long arms to run block, and break away from defenders. He is an upgrade compared to what Braylon was for us. He would bring a deep field threat opening up Santonio from a double coverage and he would only help the run game.
Richardson: No I have not given up on Greene, but if Richardson makes it down to 16 and no one else higher on the big board is there we will either trade down or pick Richardson. If him and Jeffery are available then I think it would be a coin flip for who they draft. If he were to be drafted then I would think that Shonne Greene would be packaged in a deal for another pick. Anyway, everyone says that Richardson is a bit on the small side, but I don't consider 5'11 to be too small. He is elusive, penetrates the gap, has a knack for find the hole, and he drives defenders. I don't think he'll be able to truck as many people as he did in college but he doesn't need to. Defenders have a tough time bringing him down and he probably is the best playmaker in the draft. I think that he can come in right away and make an impact and I do believe that he has the talent to be an elite RB. He reminds me a lot of Ray Rice. Richardson could make us a legit threat on offense.
Sanu: I would only like this pick if we traded down and got a 1st and a second round pick. I do think that he possesses great talent, good size 6'2 215 lbs, not sure about the arm length but they look pretty long, great vision, looks pretty good in run blocking, and would be great in the wildcat. (which could be something big with a Sparono led offense.)
Overall: I think that the best pick here would best be served on offense with wither of the last three options (Jeffery, Richardson, and Sanu) Normally I would say Upshaw is the best pick but there is one player that made me change my mind........... VINNY CURRY
FO's Top 5 best prospects in the 2nd round for the Jets:
- OLB Vinny Curry
- ILB Vontaze Burfict
- OLB Lavonte David
- WR Nick Toon
- OLB Bruce Irvin
Curry: In my opinion he is the 3-4 OLB with the most potential to be an elite pass rusher in the NFL. If think this because of his size; 6-4 or 6-5 242 lbs, average speed, occasional elite burst show off the line, sound tackling, always hustling, great strength and long arms. I think that he has the potential to be a Brian Orakpo. Can't imagine him being a great at man coverage but could be decent at zone. I think that he would be a stud under Rex and he would greatly improve the pass rush (meaning that we wouldn't have to blitz 3+ to create pressure.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sslDB7OXUpc 1:27- look at the rip move to get to the QB, @ 1:50 he pulls another move to get by the blocker, @ 1:55 look at that burst off the line, another move to get a sack @ 2:08,
David: First thing that comes to my mind is that he is a very smart player. He can read routes and is outstanding in coverage. He wouldn't necessarily help with the pass rush but he was even covering slot receivers he was that fast. I think that he is am option here because of the fact that he could probably keep up with Gronkowski. Catch is he may not be tall enough only being at 6'1. But he could turn out to be great in run support as well... However I think it would make more sense if he was used as an ILB.
Irvin: I know a few guys on this site really like him, but he looks too small. I could maybe see him being an Aaron Maybin kind of player but not a player who is a 3 down LB. And his only pass rushing move is blowing outside and then quickly cutting in past the blocker. In my opinion an OT will easily pick up on that and keep forcing him to the outside making him innefective.
Now that I've told you why those players could be in the places that I believe the FO would put them here is how I think things go down. (Note: I will only explain questionable picks)
1.Colts: Luck 2.Rams: OT Matt Kalil USC (Rams will go after a WR hard in FA and they need to protect Bradford) 3. (TRADE WASH-MINN) Wash- QB Robert Griffin lll (Perfect Shannahan QB) 4. CLE- WR Justin Blackmon 5. TB- CB Morris Clairborne 6. MIN- OT Riley Reiff 7. JAX- ILB Luke Kuelchy 8. MIA- OT Jonathon Martin 9. CAR- OG David DeCastro 10. BUF- OLB Courtney Upshaw ( imo there could be a chance of Mercilus here as well) 11. KC- DE Devon Still 12. SEA- DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus 13. ARI- C Peter Konz 14. DAL- CB Dre Kirkpatrick 15. PHI- ILB Dont'a Hightower
16th pick NYJ- WR Alshon Jeffery SCU
Toss up between Richardson and Jeffery but Sanchez absolutely must have a deep field threat to open up Santonio.