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Football Fix (Pt 4) Defensive Linemen - Multidimensional Analysis and Discovering the Jets Defensive Line Strategy.

PLEASE FIRST READ: NEED A FOOTBALL FIX (PT 1) INVITATION AND INTRODUCTION. CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE IT.

 

OF COURSE FOOTBALL PLAYERS ARE NOT ONE DEMENSIONAL, AND DOING WELL, OR NOT, IN ONE TEST DOES NOT TELL THE WHOLE STORY. All the possible Permutation and Combinations should be examined to find the one that is most predictive of success. The skills and factors exhibited in a test blend in with each other to create a unified whole. I did more than fifty tests which I will not post, I will only post the predictive and the most interesting results. But first, I will show how factors can interact with each other sometimes to produce surprising results. I will begin with PAT KIRWAN'S SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX, which fused two combine tests into one index, much the same way he developed the Kirwan Explosion Index (KEI). I will use it to demonstrate the many possible Permutation and Combinations which can be configured starting with just those two combine tests. After examining this compound agility index, I will then examine an index which blend together KIRWAN'S SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX and the KIRWAN EXPLOSION INDEX (KEI) to see if the factors he uses to measure agility and strength can give us an index which is superior in indicating how a prospect will fare in the NFL.

 

However, astonishingly, I discovered, that the with some modification, KIRWAN'S SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX seems to be one of the core building blocks the Jets use in their evaluation of players for their Defensive Line strategy. When you have ten Jets in a database of 200 players, the fact that 3/4 of them appear in one chart is not due to chance, it is because they share something in common. What they share is those particular physical characteristics, as demonstrated in these combine tests, that caused them to be selected by the Jets. From that we can derive what are the characteristics the Jets look for in possible players, and what is the defensive strategy that guides the Jets selections. With this understanding, although I do not feel competent to do it myself, we can then discuss its strengths and shortcomings, and where it can be improved. Therefore, after completing my examination of the KIRWAN'S SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX, we can look at this years draft class, and see which undrafted free agents may hold potential as future Jets, since they fit the Jets strategy. 

PAT KIRWAN'S SPEED & QUICKNESSINDEX is another raw number test developed by Pat Kirwan that measures change-of-direction. This number is the 40 Yard Dash - Short Shuttle. In my Database of 195 players with complete data, for the K S&Q index, there are 15 pro-bowelers + 13 other High Achievers, for a total of 28. In the top 10% of the players there are 4 pro-bowlers and no others who had significant achievements, 14.3%. Since this is less than 1.5 times the expected amount this index has little or no significance in projecting success in the NFL. Among the top 50 players there are 9 High achievers, 32.1%, this is also less than 1.5 times what is expected. It would have to be greater then 37.% to be considered even marginally valid as an indicator. This is too close to what may be expected in a random distribution to have any confidence in its significance. It is within the margin of error. So this index has no validity as a guide to success in the NFL. This index has 4 current and one former Jet in the top 50 players. "K S&Q" is the KIRWAN SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX in its original form as computed; "Nor S&Q" is this index number normalized.

Ksqdefensivelinemen24_medium

 

 

THE PAT KIRWAN'S SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX WHEN A PLAYER'S MASS IS FACTORED IN. In my Database of 195 players with complete data, for the K S&Q index, in which I factored in a Player's Mass, there are 15 pro-bowelers + 13 other High Achievers, 28 in total. In the top 10% of the players there are 4 pro-bowlers and 2 others who had significant achievements, these 6 High Achievers represent 21.4% of the total group of High Achievers. Since this is more then 2 times the expected amount, this index when mass is factored in has some significance in projecting success in the NFL. Among the top 50 players there are 11 High achievers, 39.3%, this is more then 1.5 times what is expected, so it is likely this index, when player mass is factored in, is a somewhat valid guide to success in the NFL.

 

The chart of the top 10% of players according this index has 4 Jets. The top 50 players according to this index has 6 current, and a Jet Free Agent. There are only 10 Jets in total in this database. That is 40% in the top 10% and 70% of the possible Jets in the top 25% of the database of players, and in addition newly drafted Mo Wilkerson (Mass = 49.22) is number 60. That is 8 out of a possible ten Defensive Linemen in the top 60, 80% of the Jets in the top 30% of players in the database, that is statistically very significant and is no accident. It is indicative of the Jets defensive strategy. It could also explain why Vernon Gholston (Mass = 42.22), as athletic as he is was such a failure in the Jets defensive system, he was the wrong player in the wrong system. He was by far, the least massive of the Jets Defensive Linemen; he was # 157 on this list of players. The Jets seem to like big, nimble Defensive Linemen who can shed blockers and stop the running game, or open up lanes for defensive backs to blitz, but based on previous charts Jet Defensive Linemen are not necessarily fast, so they do not threaten or sack the QB. Most of the Sacks the Jets record are "Coverage Sacks." "M&S&Q" is the index with Mass factored in.

Ksqmdefensivelinemen25_medium

 

 

THE JETS TEST (J TEST), WHICH IS REALLY; THE PAT KIRWAN'S SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX WHEN BOTH A PLAYER'S MASS AND 10 YARD SPLIT ARE FACTORED IN. I proposed a hypothesis in my last chart commentary: "The Jets seem to like big, nimble Defensive Linemen who can shed blockers and stop the running game, or open up lanes for defensive backs to blitz, but the Jets Defensive Linemen are not necessarily fast, so they do not threaten or sack the QB". So using the Ten Yard Split we can test that theory, by seeing if there is a significant drop-off of Jets in the top 50 players when the element of speed is added to it, as it becomes the "J Test".

 

We will also test if this is a valid indicator of success in the NFL. There is a fairly large reduction in the number of players who have all the data necessary for this test, therefore, we must make some required adjustments to maintain the validity of this test. In my Database of 185 players with complete data, for the Kirwan S&Q index, in which I factored in both Mass and Speed as represented by the 10 Yard Split; there are 8 pro-bowelers + 13 other High Achievers, a total of 21. In all. In the top 10% of the players (19) there are 2 pro-bowlers and 3 others who had significant achievements, these 5 High Achievers represent 23.8% of the total reduced group of High Achievers. Since this is more then 2 times the expected amount, this index has some significance in projecting success in the NFL. Because of the reduced size of the database, this conclusion is more tentative. Among the top 46 players, who represent the top quartile of the database of players, there are 8 High achievers, 38.1%, this is more then 1.5 times what is expected, so it is somewhat likely this index, with mass and speed factored in, is a valid guide to success in the NFL.

 

The number of Jets (10) in the database was not reduced by the reduction in size of the database. The introduction of the speed factor alone, since the other factors remained the same, caused a significant drop-off of Jets in the top quartile of players going from 80% to 40%, among the top 60 players from 9 (90%) to 5 (50%) in a slightly larger percentage (32.4%) of the database. This drop by almost half in both cases tends to affirm my hypothesis. It also seem likely based on this test, the reason that Kris Jenkins was able to collapse the pocket so much was because he was not only big and nimble, he also had the burst and acceleration to get pass the blockers on the line of scrimmage. In that, he was unique among the Jets.

Jtestdefensivelinemen26_medium

 

 

THE JETS TEST 40 (J TEST 4), WHICH IS REALLY; THE PAT KIRWAN'S SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX WHEN BOTH A PLAYER'S MASS AND 40 YARD DASH TIME ARE FACTORED IN. As with the ten yard split we can use the 40 yard dash to test my hypothesis, to see if there is a significant drop-off of the number jets in the top 50 players when the element of speed is added to Kirwan's Speed & Quickness Index With Mass. This is the J test 4. We will also test if this is a valid indicator of success in the NFL. Now there is no significant reduction in the number of players who have the necessary data for this test, therefore, no adjustments are required. In my Database of 195 players with complete data, there are 15 pro-bowelers + 13 other High Achievers. In the top 10% of the players (20) there are 6 pro-bowlers and 2 others who had significant achievements, these 8 High Achievers represent 28.6% of the total of High Achievers. Since this is almost then 3 times the expected amount, this index has significance in projecting success in the NFL. Among the top 50 players, who represent the top quartile of the database of players, there are 13 High achievers, 46.4%, this is close to twice what is expected, so this index, with mass and speed factored in, is a valid guide to success in the NFL.

 

The number of Jets (10) remained the same as in the other tests. The Jets lack of speed on the Defensive Line is more apparent when I substitute the 40 Yard Time for the 10 Yard Split Time. The introduction of the speed factor caused a significant drop-off of Jets in the top quartile of players going from 80% (8) to 10% (1), among the top 60 players from 9 (90%) to 4 (40%) in this slightly larger percentage (30%) of the database. Since all other factors remained the same, the introduction of the speed factor alone is what caused reduction in whose who appear in the top 25% of the database,. This drop of one half or more in both cases proves my hypothesis. The only current Jet now in the top 25% is Sione Pouha, Jets in the top 60 players (#'s57-59) were Kris Jenkins (quick burst, average pursuit) , Mo Wilkerson and Mike Devito.

Jtest4defensivelinemen2_medium

 

 

MERGING PAT KIRWAN's SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX, AND THE KIRWAN EXPLOSION INDEX INTO ONE TOTAL INDEX USING ALL HIS FACTORS. (Total K) This blends the strength factors Pat Kirwan feels are important into the agility factors he feels are important. There is a fairly large reduction in the number of players who have all the data necessary for this test, therefore, we must make some required adjustments to maintain the validity of this test. There are 185 players in my Database of with complete data, for both the Kirwan S&Q index, and the Kirwan Explosion Index. In this chart I do not factor in mass or speed; there are 12 pro-bowelers + 12 other High Achievers in this test, a total of 24. In the top 10% of the players (19) there are 6 pro-bowlers and 1 others who had significant achievements, these 7 High Achievers represent 29.2% of the total reduced group of High Achievers. Since this is more than 2.5 close to 3 times the expected amount, this index has significance in projecting success in the NFL. Among the top 46 players, who represent the top quartile of the database of players, there are 11 High achievers, 45.8%, this is close to twice what is expected, so it is likely this index, composed of all the factors Pat Kirwan uses in both his indexes is a valid guide to success in the NFL. Because of the reduced size of the database, this conclusion is somewhat tentative. There are three Jets (30%) in the top 10% of the database, but no others in the top 25%.

Totalkdefensivelinemen2_medium

 

 

TOTAL FACTORS PAT KIRWAN USES, MERGING HIS SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX, AND THE KIRWAN EXPLOSION INDEX INTO ONE TOTAL INDEX, WHILE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BODY MASS. There is a fairly large reduction in the number of players who have all the data necessary for this test, therefore, we must make some required adjustments to maintain the validity of this test. In my Database of 185 players with complete data, for both the Kirwan S&Q index, and the Kirwan Explosion Index, including 12 pro-bowelers + 12 other High Achievers. In this chart in which I factor in mass along with the factors he uses; there are in the top 10% of the players (19) 4 pro-bowlers and 2 others who had significant achievements. These 6 High Achievers represent 25% of the total reduced group of High Achievers. Since this is 2.5 times the expected amount, this index has significance in projecting success in the NFL. Among the top 46 players, who represent the top quartile of the database of players, there are 10 High achievers, 41.7%, this is more than 1.5 times what is expected, so it is likely this index, composed of all the factors Pat Kirwan uses in both his indexes, and when mass is considered, is a fairly valid guide to success in the NFL. Because of the reduced size of the database, this conclusion is tentative. There are four Jets within the top quartilem two of them in the top 10%..

Totalkmdefensivelinemen_medium

 

 

TOTAL FACTORS PAT KIRWAN USES, MERGING HIS SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX, AND THE KIRWAN EXPLOSION INDEX INTO ONE TOTAL INDEX, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT 10 YARD SPLIT TIME. There is a fairly large reduction in the number of players who have all the data necessary for this test, therefore, we must make some required adjustments to maintain the validity of this test. In my Database of 180 players with complete data, for both the Kirwan S&Q index, the Kirwan Explosion Index, and the 10 Yard Split there are 9 pro-bowelers + 12 other High Achievers, a total of 21. In this chart in which I factor in 10 Yard Split time, but not Mass, along with the factors he uses; there are in the top 10% of the players (18) 4 pro-bowlers and no others who had significant achievements. These 4 High Achievers represent 19% of the total reduced group of High Achievers, and has is about 2 times the expected number. Among the top 45 players, who represent the top quartile of the database of players, there are 10 High achievers, 42.8%, this is more than 1.5 times what is expected, so it is somewhat likely this index, composed of all the factors Pat Kirwan uses in both his indexes, when the 10 yard split is considered, is somewhat of a valid guide to success in the NFL. However because of the size of the data set, this and all other conclusions must be questioned, and can only be tentative.

Totalkspddefensivelinem_medium

 

 

TOTAL FACTORS PAT KIRWAN USES, MERGING HIS SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX, AND HIS EXPLOSION INDEX INTO ONE TOTAL INDEX, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BOTH 10 YARD SPLIT TIME AND MASS. There is a fairly large reduction in the number of players who have all the data necessary for this test, therefore, we must make some required adjustments to maintain the validity of this test. In my Database of 180 players with complete data, for the Kirwan S&Q index, the Kirwan Explosion Index, and BOTH Mass and the 10 Yard Split there are 9 pro-bowelers + 12 other High Achievers, a total of 21. In this chart in which I factor in 10 Yard Split time, and Mass, along with the factors he uses; there are in the top 10% of the players (18) 4 pro-bowlers and 2 others who had significant achievements. These 6 High Achievers represent 28.6% of the total reduced group of High Achievers, and has is 2.5 almost 3 times the expected number. Among the top 45 players, who represent the top quartile of the database of players, there are 8 High achievers, 38.1%, this is only slightly more than 1.5 times what is expected, so it is likely this index, when Mass and the !0 yard Split, are added to all the Pat Kirwan uses in both his indexes, is a marginal to somewhat valid guide to success in the NFL. However because of the size of the data set, this and all other conclusions must be questioned, and can only be tentative.

"Total K & Spd" is the combined index with the Split, "Tot K+M+Spd" is the combined index plus both mass and split.

Totalkmspddefensiveline_medium

 

 

TOTAL FACTORS PAT KIRWAN USES, MERGING HIS SPEED & QUICKNESS INDEX, AND HIS EXPLOSION INDEX INTO ONE TOTAL INDEX, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BOTH 40 YARD DASH TIME AND MASS. In my Database of 185 players with complete data, for the Kirwan S&Q index, the Kirwan Explosion Index, and BOTH Mass and the 40 Yard Dash there are 14 pro-bowelers + 12 other High Achievers, a total of 26. In this chart in which I factor in 40 Yard Dash time, and Mass, along with the factors Kirwan uses; there are in the top 10% (19) of the players 7 pro-bowlers and 1 other who had significant achievements. These 8 High Achievers represent 30.7% of the total group of High Achievers, and is 3 times the expected number. Among the top 47 players, who represent the top quartile of the database of players, there are 14 High achievers, 53.8%, this is more than twice what is expected, so this index, when Mass and the 40 yard Dash, are added to all the Pat Kirwan uses in both his indexes, is a valid guide to success in the NFL.    Totalkm40defensivelinem_medium

 

NEXT: Football Fix (Pt 5) Defensive Linemen - LOOKING FOR UNDISCOVERED  DIAMONDS


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