Tanny and the Draft

by GreenBeer on Mar 11, 2011 12:26 AM EST

Like most everyone here, I am anxiously anticipating the draft (anything football in the Spring is bonus). Now I'm not the biggest college football fan so I can't get too much into speculating on the Who's and the Where's of the draft board. But I have been thinking a lot about the needs of the team and Tanny's tendencies.

Obviously, Tanny's first tendency is to sign Free Agents at huge contracts. Second tendency is to trade draft picks for troubled players. Third tendency is to trade up in the draft for particular players of interest. Fourth tendency I see is drafting players not for immediate need but to avoid future troubling contract negotiations with other players.

I am not sure the first two things will happen this year - first, I am not sure the Jets will have a ton of money to spend; second, I think any money they do have will be used to retain Free Agents such as Holmes or Edwards, Ellis, Cro, or some of the other FA DBs; third, I am not sure that players can be traded without the CBA being in place.

As for trading up in the draft, I don't see that Tanny has any chips to trade up with. I don't see how we could move up in the 1st, without a 2nd or high 3rd. I don't see how we could get into the 2nd round without trading almost the whole draft behind the 2nd. This leaves me to think one of the best options is to trade the 1st for a 2nd and a 3rd or 4th. I attach Tanny's draft history to highlight some succeses in the middle rounds.

As for immediate needs of the team I see upgrades at OLB and DLine, as well depth DBs and WR. But considering what I see as Tanny's fourth tendency, I would have to say OLB and DLine might take a back seat to WR, OT, and even ILB. Consider that Tanny traded up for Greene while TJ and Leon were squawking about salary. Tanny traded up for Keller when Baker got chirpy. He drafted Wilson while Revis was squawking. He grabbed Mangold and cut Mawae (because Mawae apparently referred to Pennington as an eggshell). Drafting Ducasse and cutting Faneca to save money and help with Mangold and Ferguson negotiations.

If the Jets don't draft a decent WR prospect (meaning a 2nd or high 3rd round pick), Holmes and Edwards will have too much leverage in contract negotiations. If they don't draft an O lineman, they may have to bring back Woody or Turner for example at more money then they want to spend. Finally, if they don't have a viable option at ILB and the new CBA does not include the franchise tag, they may be screwed in Harris' negotiations.

I know its not pretty and may not sound exciting, but its something to consider. Trade out of the first round and stock pile depth in the middle rounds. Then bring back needed Free Agent players who were on the team last year. Your thoughts?

2006

Round Pick Player Pos School

1 4(4) D'Brickashaw Ferguson T Virginia

1 29(29) Nick Mangold C Ohio State

2 17(49) Kellen Clemens QB Oregon

3 12(76) Anthony Schlegel ILB Ohio State

3 33(97) Eric Smith S Michigan State

4 6(103) Brad Smith QB Missouri

4 20(117) Leon Washington RB Florida State

5 17(150) Jason Pociask TE Wisconsin

6 20(189) Drew Coleman CB TCU

7 12(220) Titus Adams DT Nebraska

2007

Round Pick Player Position School

1 14 (14) Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh

2 15 (47) David Harris ILB Michigan

6 3 (177) Jacob Bender T Nicholls State

7 25 (235) Chansi Stuckey WR

2008

Round Pick Player Position School

1 6 (6) Vernon Gholston OLB Ohio State

1 30 (30) Dustin Keller TE Purdue

4 14 (113) Dwight Lowery CB San Jose State

5 27 (162) Erik Ainge QB Tennessee

6 5 (171) Marcus Henry WR Kansas

7 4 (211) Nate Garner T Arkansas

2009

Round Pick Pos Player

1 (5)- QB Mark Sanchez

3 (65)- RB Shonn Greene

6 (193)- OG Matt Slauson

2010

Round Pick Pos Player

1 29. – CB Kyle Wilson

2 61. - OG Vladimir Ducasse

4 14 (112) – RB Joe McKnight

5 8 (139) – RB John Conner

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Comments

Equal Opprotunity Trader

Tanny will quickly point out that his history shows that he trades down as many times as he trades up. The Jets at 30 are in a very good spot, a QB on the board or the last of the blue chip Offensive Tackles could motivate a trade. Trading down from 30 doesn’t have the same value that teams have that trade down at the top of the draft ( say from 5 down to 12), The best you can expect trading down into the second is a good fourth round pick.
This post correctly points out that the Jets draft many times in a strange way, Tanny has an agenda, the Jets draft for value, makes them very unpredictable, they will drive you crazy. Unprecendented rage was exhibited on this board when it was suggested that the Jets might draft OT Gabe Caremi, but Tanny looks at the Right Tackle position and Brandon Moore’s contract in 2012 at RG, see’s things differently.
Tanny looks under every rock, possibly the next approach is cheap ( vet minimum) or moderate free agents to supplement the draft. Two guys that may be interesting are former Jets. Chansi Stuckey WR. had 40 catches last year as a slot receiver, not much upside, doesn’t give you anything on ST, but may offer depth at the WR position. The second guy is Jason Trusnick ILB, as Cleveland changes to a 4-3 from the old Mangini 3-4. Westoff would campaign hard for Trusnick , a great ST guy, certainly a better ILB and possibly OLB than Laury

by JetOrange on Mar 11, 2011 7:52 AM EST reply actions

It would be nice to see Trusnik and Stuckey back. I felt bad for them when they got traded away right at the begining of the Rex era. Especially Trusnik who had the nice Kick recovery right before the Edwards trade.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 11, 2011 9:01 AM EST up reply actions

So then you are saying that they are going to take a WR,DE,and CB based on players who are looking for payday’s? It is a good point and as you mentioned you can see how Mr.T leaned that way last year and the year before.

by chrebetsthebet on Mar 11, 2011 9:19 AM EST reply actions

I think WR is guarnteed. DE could also be DT. CB/S convert very possible too. But I think CB is lesser because of Wilson.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 11, 2011 9:25 AM EST up reply actions

I’m not to sure how comfortable I would feel if Wilson is the CB2 next year. Hopefully a CBA deal gets done today so we can get some more clarity on what the team’s plan is for their FA. Reading into Holmes comments it seems like they may have made a verbal agreement, which would leave Edwards as the odd man out. What do you think?

by chrebetsthebet on Mar 11, 2011 10:59 AM EST up reply actions

I don’t think there is a verbal agreement. In fact, I don’t know if there is anything actually stopping a team from signing one of their players to an extension. That said, I’m nervous about Holmes because he is one puff away from a year suspension. Its risky. Braylon has gotten in trouble, but not with the league.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 11, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

i honestly dont think theyre gonna take a wr

unless its a later on pick for depth. maybe

metsjetsknicksrangers.............can it get any worse?

by dabu7 on Mar 11, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

My argument is that its awfully risky not to draft a WR just in case they loose both Edwards and Holmes. Moreover, they certainly will need the depth. And finally, it would be very helpful in the negotiations with Edwards or Holmes if the Jets were not desperate for a WR.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 11, 2011 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

If we loose Holmes we will have an extra first and third rounder...

Since he is an RFA and tendered at that level. Witth one those two picks, I’m sure we can draft a decent replacement…

by RhodesRocks on Mar 12, 2011 1:08 AM EST up reply actions

There is no CBA. This 1st and 3rd is a guess just in case.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 12, 2011 2:02 AM EST up reply actions

and the smart money is that once theres a cba theres no way those guys are gonna be rfa’s. although i free agency starts before new cba, who knows?

metsjetsknicksrangers.............can it get any worse?

by dabu7 on Mar 12, 2011 8:06 PM EST up reply actions

Trading down would be a smart move,but...

Tanny has never traded down, and I don’t see that trend changing… especially if a guy like Phil Taylor is there at 30.

Get busy winning or get busy losing.

by GangGreenMag on Mar 11, 2011 11:03 AM EST reply actions

I think it’s all going to depend on whether they reach a CBA deal before the draft. If they don’t I think it would be wise for him to trade down and acquire more picks to fill needs he won’t be able to fill through FA.

by chrebetsthebet on Mar 11, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions

Its kind of hard to identify particular tendencies when he has operated with only 2 head coaches in a limited period of time.

Where has Tanny shown a tendency to overpay for free agents? I don’t he’s done that really. And definitely don’t think he’s done it enough to say its a tendency.

And he traded picks for so-called troubled players 3×. And each of those players have pro bowl talent. Can’t really call it a tendency. They were opportunities that he identified and pulled the trigger on. They’re not the type of opportunities that present themself often; and theres not a lot of risk involved. Id much rather trade a 5th round pick for a 1st round talent thats NFL proven, than I would on using the pick and being more likely that that player won’t even make the team, let alone make any real contribution to the team.

The thing I like about Tanny is that he’s a creative opportunist. He can’t be pigeonholed into any archaic formula/strategy. He’s takes both a long-term and short-term approach simulataneously and he’s rigorously disciplined to being beholden to nothing but the best interest of the team. If you don’t make sense, youre out.

by Crackback on Mar 11, 2011 1:42 PM EST reply actions

I have faith in Tanny and the Jets to navigate through the minefields of the CBA, and free agency. Everyone thought we would screwed last year also, but we went ahead and made a big splash anyway. We will find a way to bring talent to this team.

Get busy winning or get busy losing.

by GangGreenMag on Mar 11, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

Big Jenks was a trade and he was considered a problem in the Panthers locker room. Favre was causing some trouble in Greenbay. TJ was unhappy sharing in Chicago.
Pace, Scott, Jenks (he signed as part of the trade), Woody, Leonard… those were big deals that many here argue were too rich.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 11, 2011 3:23 PM EST up reply actions

please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

tanny and rex all ready have shit worked out, do you really think that he went into the off season with out a back up plan, i mean this is what tanny does he makes shit happen, so i have all my trust in tanny

by realsouthace on Mar 11, 2011 3:24 PM EST reply actions

I’m not arguing he doesn’t have things worked out. I’m only saying it may not be worked out to take an OLB or trade up.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 11, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

i know what your sayin

but some people are scared about the whole situation

by realsouthace on Mar 11, 2011 3:27 PM EST reply actions

i look at it like this if we lose one player tanny always finds one just as good or better

by realsouthace on Mar 11, 2011 3:28 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, don’t read this to say that I don’t have faith in Tanny. Look ,Tanny set them up to move on without Revis last year. He covers his butt. I just see that he needs to protect them from Edwards or Holmes asking for the Brinks truck. And drafting A WR in the 2nd or early 3rd would definitely do that.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 11, 2011 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

only thing is i think they have plenty of leverage on both holmes and edwards

both have had plenty of off the field trouble that should definitely lower their value (woody johnson even said as much after braylon’s DUI). also, neither had a statistically great yr and holmes dropped a lot of balls. and each of them (especially edwards ) has let it be known how much they wanna stay in NY. i think edwards is messing himself over in negotiations w/ all the comments he keeps on making. i’d be shocked if both werent back

metsjetsknicksrangers.............can it get any worse?

by dabu7 on Mar 11, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions

I think Tanny can leverage them against each other and their pasts. But if another GM comes along and offers some big cash to one of them, then Tanny may have to scramble for the other. It would be nice to have a little extra protection… and we need depth anyway.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 11, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions

IDK if hes screwing himself over...

I think he genuinely wants to be on the jets, lets face it he was on Cleveland for so long and they were terrible..I think Bray likes being in the big city and on a championship contender…I think he wants to let the jets know he will work with them on a fair contract, since many people think they will only choose tone or bray, if one of them was being a dick about negotiations and that was true they would easily find themselves on another team….

by RhodesRocks on Mar 12, 2011 2:10 AM EST up reply actions

excellent post

gets you thinking from a different perspective about the draft .it also brings next years players we might need to cut to save us money as more draft options this year
if we need to cut players next year to stay under the cap then mike t could pick players in this draft to have as replacements
just looking at next seasons contracts 2012 season , players we could cut to save money if needed .cutting sanchez saves us 9.25m
cutting pace saves us 2.3m
cutting scott saves us 4.35m
cutting moore saves us 3m
cutting cotchery saves us 2.3m
cutting keller saves us 1.3m
cutting devito saves us 2.5m
all other we could cut won’t save us near 1m so they are the only guys worth cutting if we need to free up cap space .

by tinley24 on Mar 11, 2011 3:55 PM EST reply actions

Thanks but...

…please don’t say “cut Sanchez”.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 11, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

just listing all the players that could save us money

not saying we will need to cut any of those players but just showing where the saving could come from

by tinley24 on Mar 11, 2011 4:15 PM EST reply actions

We definitely need depth at LB. $8mill for Pace, $8 mill for Scott, $10 mill for Harris. Heck, Thomas is bargain. But we also need time to develop replacements. Thats why I think we need more picks this year.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 11, 2011 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

This thread has convinced me of one thing at least:

Assuming we stay put and Phil Taylor is gone (I’m almost positive SOMEONE will take him ahead of us, and I’m feeling like it might be the Chiefs right now)… I’m thinking we’re going Martez Wilson. Pretty good fit imo, given the thinness in our LB corps, his versatility, his crazy speed and athleticism, etc. He could contribute as a blitzer on 3rd downs pretty much immediately.

by Exystence on Mar 11, 2011 5:56 PM EST reply actions

And I guy like Martez W, with the neck injury, could drop into the mid 2nd. We could trade down to say the 50 spot, swap 3rds, and pickup another 4th. Tanny could get a guy he wants, move up in the 3rd and pick up an extra 4th.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 11, 2011 7:05 PM EST up reply actions

I'd love to trade down and grab Martez, but

I’ve seen mocks that have him going to the Steelers right after us. It really makes no sense given that their offensive line is, well, atrocious. But I mean they got to the Super Bowl regardless of that, and he seems like the perfect LeBeau system guy, and I’m assuming Phil Taylor is gone already (otherwise there should be no way in hell he gets past us anyway). But obviously trading down would be the best case scenario, or second best after Taylor falling to us at least. Third best being trading down, Martez getting picked up before our newly-traded-down-for-2nd rounder, and then getting uhhhh Justin Houston or Brooks Reed or something. :D

The reason why this post convinced me of Martez btw is because he could play ILB and I’m thinking that you pretty much just solved Tanny’s draft “strategery” so he could not only be a C.Y.A. pick but also assuming we lock up David Harris then Martez could then become a OLB for us. As we can see Tanny loves flexibility, and that would be just about the most flexible pick he could make.

by Exystence on Mar 12, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

I hear you.

My main issue… you hear about all these players available and realize we will only get to pick at 29 when all the best players are gone, then not again until 94 and 126. By then all these names discussed on draft boards would likely be irrelevant. Moving down in the 2nd and up in the 3rd would put us back in those discussions.
And aside from New England, there are a few teams like San Diego, New Orleans that have multiple picks in 2 or 3. Someone may want to get up into or spot to grab that “last
1st rounder available”. Think someone like St. Louis that just has to have Pitt WR Baldwin. Or someone like Denver who hasn’t picked since the 2 spot and is getting anxious. Could be interesting.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 12, 2011 3:50 PM EST reply actions

Dallas desperate for an OT. as the top four go off the board, will want to move up from 40

by JetOrange on Mar 12, 2011 6:35 PM EST up reply actions

Dallas is a good one. We drop down to 40 and swap 3rd round picks moving us up 20 something spots in the 3rd.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 12, 2011 6:48 PM EST up reply actions

This scenario is a win/win for both teams

I like the St’Louis scenario with Baldwin. In both the OT and WR, the blue chippers are limited in quantity and the quality drops off significantly. Teams could be motivated to trade up. What I find interesting is that in these draft trade down scenarios, is the Jets take advantage of the depth and quality of defensive front seven personnel,
Thank you for the concept of trading down to forty and swapping 3rd round picks. It is a much superior scenario, than getting an extra early fourth.

by JetOrange on Mar 12, 2011 7:41 PM EST up reply actions

Actually, according to the charts we would probably pick up Dallas 7th rd pick too.
Don’t forget Pouncy. If he is there at 30, it would be a lame pick (near term) for the Jets but with Pitts right behind us, someone may want to jump in there.

So Let It Be Written, So Let it Be Done.

by GreenBeer on Mar 12, 2011 8:06 PM EST reply actions