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What does the Last two years tell us about the Jets post-bye.

Well, for the third straight year the Jets have dropped that game against NE that would have set themselves up for the division/ cakewalk into the playoffs. They've lost these all three years under Rex Ryan. The rest of the schedule this year looks strikingly like 09 and 2010 seasons.  So can Rex fire up the miracle machine again? Let's go back in time the last two years and examine what happened post bye and how it looks this year comparatively. After sifting through data, it looks almost the same all three years.

2009:

We all know the story of '09 Jets. The hot start, talk of the Superbowl with the Giants, then came the losses. The losing began in week 4 but.... the bye week was week 8 As a refresher, before the bye we dropped a game to eventual Superbowl champs New Orleans, a INT fiasco in Buffalo to the Bills, one game at home against the Dolphins, then we seemed to right the ship and blew out a very bad Oakland team and then promptly lost in the last seconds against the Dolphins. Coming out of the bye the Jets needed to right the ship. Instead it Titanic'ed with losses in the last minute against J'ville at home in the last minute and a loss to the Pats in Foxboro. At this point, the Jets were 5-6. The Jets began to scrap out wins the next week and wins against weak teams started to pile up. We beat the Panthers 17-3, with no offensive help and Delhomme's 4 INT game. Then we knocked off the Bills, and Bucs Kellen clemens game.) The came the heart breaking loss. Atlanta Falcons upset the Jets at home and led to the famous were out of the playoffs comment from Rex. We know how it worked out, Indy held out the starters, and we destroyed the Bengals to close out the Meadowlands of old and "back" into the playoffs. Additionally, the stars aligned and Fireman Ed sold his soul to the Devil and the Jets got an extraordinary amount of help from teams to get in.

By the Numbers:

Post bye record: 5-3

Final win/loss of competition post bye: 65-63

Losses: NE.

Bad Losses: Jacksonville(7-9), Atlanta(9-7)

Wins against sub-500 teams after bye: Buff, ATL, Carolina (8-8)

Wins against teams with Winning records: Indy*, Bengals.

Last 5 game record: 4-1

Miracle needed: The whole weeks of 14-15 where every game worked out for the Jets, Indy sitting everyone in second half..

2010:

We walked into the bye with a 5-1 record and top of the world. We had the Packers (eventual SB champs ) after the bye. We lost (steve weatherford fake punt anyone) and no offensive help. We then started rattling off OT wins at bad teams: Det, Cleveland, Texans, and then knocked off the Bungles in another bad offensive performance. Then came the game which was over before it began. Lets just call it a close game between us and the Pats, 45-3 in their favor. The next week we had a game against Miami, another bad team that should have been a relatively easy win. That one didn't work out either, as we once again did not show up. At this point, we were on the bubble at 9-4 looking like the hope for playoffs was about to end. A win at the Steelers calmed some nerves, but then a loss at Chicago in which the defense did not show up would put us with the 6th seed at best. We clinched finishing up with a complete shellacking of the Bills in Buff. Interesting point that year the wild card teams were 11-5.

Post bye record: 6-4.

Final Win/loss of Competition post bye: 77-71

Losses: Packers, Bears

Bad losses: NE(got destroyed), Dolphins

Wins against Sub-500 teams: Lions, Bills, Texans, Bungles, Browns

Quality wins: Steelers.

Miracle: Joe Mcknight in Buffalo, once again everyone lost that needed to.

Notice the trend? It seems post bye the Jets have one or two quality wins, but mostly beat up on inferior teams and seemed to drop one of the many against an inferior team. Also, the Jets go through a big losing and losing playing lousy streak both years. Still the records show us that the Jets did beat some good teams both years later in the year which set up a playoff berth. We have lost to the Pats both years after the bye. So lets take a good look at this schedule for this year and look at how similar it may be to years past.

By the Numbers:

Post bye right now: 1-2

Bad Losses NE, Tebow and the Broncos,

Wins: Bills in Buffalo

Teams left in schedule (Shows my projection for what i believe record will be)

Buffalo (7-9 or 6-10)

Redskins: (6-10)

Chiefs (7-9 without Cassel)

Eagles: 9-7

Giants 9-7 or 10-6

Dolphins 6-10

My projected result : 10-6.

So plugging it in were looking about schedule that is less than .500 the rest of the way out with two teams seemingly going to be above 500 and the rest looking to be struggling to reach the 500 plateau. Still, the schedule is favorable for the Jets to win 4-6 games based on other teams injuries and if the Jets can play to potential. The last two years 11-5 got you into the playoffs, and this year i cannot see any team not getting in with a record of 11-5. However, I expect a few teams to be locked out at 10-6 and one make it with that record. So the Jets to have a realistic chance MUST go at least 5-1 to make the playoffs and the stars must align. Still, it is possible for the Jets to make it  and the playoff race looks as if the Jets do have an easier road then the other teams fighting. Personally, I believe the Jets can right the ship like in 09 and 2010 before the fat lady sings and we can make the playoffs but once again this is my opinion based on the above stats.

So can it happen? Statistically, it has the last two seasons, with the Jets seemingly overcoming various obstacles to make it including two losses against NE and another against bad teams, but it once again depends on the Jets. Winning out almost assures us a playoff berth but losing even one kills a lot of chances. As the saying goes, Keep Winning and were (probably) in.

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