I've been fiddling with QB stats, trying to find similar career progressions to Sanchez to try to get a handle on what we might expect going forward. Interestingly enough, the closest two I found are both playing right here in NY for the Giants. Like Sanchez, Eli Manning and David Carr were both selected near the top of Rd1. Both struggled early. Both suffered from Happy Feet. Both failed to make major progress through Year 3. (Starting to sound familiar?) Both had stats through Yr 3 remarkably similar to Sanchez after prorating for partial years. Consider the following:
QB Rating Completion% INT% YDs/Attempt TDs INTs
Yr1 63 54 5.5% 6.7 12 20
Yr2 75 55 2.6% 6.5 17 13
Yr3 (Projected) 80 57 3.0% 6.9 22 16
Yr1 (Prorated) 55 48 4.6% 5.3 11 16
Yr2 76 53 3.1% 6.8 24 17
Yr3 77 58 3.4% 6.2 24 18
Yr1 63 53 3.4% 5.8 9 15
Yr2 (Prorated) 70 57 4.4% 6.8 12 17
Yr3 84 61 3.0% 7.6 16 14
The stats and progressions, as well as the problems and complaints, are remarkably similar for all 3 players through Year 3. Remember when Carr was gonna be a star? Remember when Eli wasn't the answer? Made too many mistakes, had happy feet, was regressing, etc.?
Interestingly enough, if we took a snapshot at end of Year 3, Carr loks like he's making the most progress and has the most promise. Highest QB rating, highest Completion %, Highest Yds/Attempt, tied for lowest INT % -- across the board, Carr looked like the winner of this bunch. Look how that turned out.
So, is Sanchez more David Carr or Eli Manning? Who the hell knows? I think we'd be reasonably happy if he ended up like Eli. If like Carr, not so much. Even the so-called experts were questioning Eli by Year 3, and were giving Carr the benefit of the doubt because of poor O-Line play (again, sound familiar?). If only we knew Sanchez would eventually blossom like Eli, we'd have more patience. If only we knew he'd crumble like Carr, we'd dump him now and move on. But there's the rub -- we don't know, and neither does Rex or any so-called expert. As Yogi said, predictions are hard, especially about the future.