Truth vs. Myth Perception of 3rd Year QB's. Are we too quick to judge Sanchez?

This is a nice sober perspective. And, admittedly, has made me re-think things on Sanchez. I jumped off the boat in the immediate after-math of the Broncos game, which was heavily influenced by his poor performance against the Pats. But I think its time to take a step back, take a deep breath, and re-assess the kid. Your analysis makes a lot of sense. And Mark has faced some tough challenges this year. And he has improved more than he’s given credit for.

I didn’t really proofread this but I wanted to put this thing together because it seems like the fanbase has been in panic mode.

I wanted to include HOF QB’s numbers as well if I had the time. But if you wish to, take a look at Troy Aikman, Brett Favre and John Elway in their 3rd seasons. They were all average or atrocious depending on how you look at it. Both Elway and Favre were interception machines.

Might as well stick with Sanchez in give him time rather than rebuild every 3 years. I don’t know a single Giants fan that gave up on Manning despite his struggles. It seems like if nothing is going our way we always choose to look elsewhere.

Also, Sanchez in his career isn’t any worse than Freeman or Stafford. Stafford has had the injuries but his game against the Lions last week serves as an example of what he is capable of. Stafford also had more INTs his rookie year than Sanchez. Freeman has more INTs than career starts. Something tells me Freeman’s efficient season last year was an aberration.

Aside from Carson Palmer who completed 67% of his passes in 2005 (his career high by three percentage points) every QB completed between 57-62% of their passes. Looks like Sanchez is right on schedule. Hes sitting at 57.1% and without the Ravens game which was a complete mess it would be at 60% exactly.

I just get annoyed when ESPN analysts keep on stressing Sanchez can’t even reach 60% and you can only be considered legitimate if you reach that number. Big Ben, Eli, Brees and McNabb didn’t reach 60 in their 3rd years. Why is the criticism of Sanchez so much more profound. And you can’t even use the media markets. McNabb is in Philly, Big Ben plays in Pittsburgh and Eli plays for THE team in NY (sorry Jets fans but Giants own this city if you read the papers) and none of them receive the flack Sanchez does.

I think a lot of it deals with the primetime games. For some reason the NFL schedules primetime games that are bad matchups for Sanchez. Mark has 3 pick 6’s this year, (Cowboys, Broncos and Pats) and all of them came in primetime games. His 33% completion percentage against the Ravens was his worst game this year by far. Last year against the Ravens on primetime he was just as bad. Seems like the NFL catches Sanchez at the wrong times. The most INTs hes thrown this year in a game is 2. Vick, Brady, Stafford and Eli have all had worse games.

Also, the Giants lost to the Seahawks earlier this year and weren’t even crucified by the media. Jets lose on the road, in a short week, in the high altitude of Denver to an unconventional offense without two of their running backs and they are frauds while Sanchez is not legit. Kind of crazy I’ve been reading all of this shit from columnists stating they’d rather have Tebow than Sanchez at this point because Tebow is a proven winner with intangible talent. Did these writers not see the stats during the end of the game saying Sanchez has the most 4th quarter comebacks in the NFL since last year. Did they not see Sanchez win 4 road playoff games two of them to HOF QBs.

The NFL itself isn’t a joke but the coverage of the NFL is. Every week a different writer is ready to hop on someone elses dick. One week its Romo being a jackass the next week hes the most efficient Cowboy QB ever. One day the Jets are contenders, the next week the coach is a fat ass that should shut his mouth. The week after that Ryan can back up his talk and has this team headed to the Super Bowl. The following week the Jets are a train wreck, the worst team in the AFC and the biggest rabble rousers in the world. This preseason it was Eli being an idiot for saying he is on Bradys level. Two months later Eli is a beast that has Bradys number. NFL analysts are bipolar. I’m tired of their shit filtering into the internet. I come onto this site to avoid the consistent crap they feed us not read it. To those of you influenced by jackasses like Prisco or Cimini keep it off this site. I’d rather read real sound analysis than sensationalist bullshit about the demise of this team and some stupid locker room occurrence.

Its so much easier to just point at the numbers than try to articulate what I am feeling at the moment. The bottom line is that there are many factors influencing Sanchez’s play other than Sanchez himself. I’m not saying we need to give him a pass as some people seem to suggest all Sanchez’s defenders do. He is certainly making boneheaded plays. But as you have pointed out, QB evaluation is often an inexact science when looking at individual years vs. the arc of a career. It’s also important to note that Sanchez doesn’t exist in a vacuum and his play is heavily influenced by everyone else on the field with him, on the sidelines, etc. FOr me at least, I can be annoyed with his poor play while still being willing to withhold judgment on his ultimate worth for at least a season without Schotty, if nothing else.

Also, I agree 100% with you comment on announcers. If those announcers Thursday night had been praising Tebow any higher his balls would have been on their chin. “There’s just something magical about him!!!” barf And don’t even get me started on ragging on the Jets for not using a timeout that they didn’t actually have…

I was going to do a post like this, as it clearly needed to be said that people are being as ridiculous as Giants fans who cry for Eli’s head every time their team starts losing. Mark’s career is just starting. He’s going through a tough time right now, but pretty much every qb does at one point or another. And it is fun to remember that people were essentially saying the same things about Brees then as they are about Sanchez now. They all just want to cry about his inability to manage a game without considering how terrible his coordinator is, and say that he has no signature wins despite the fact that he was the qb who led us past the Colts and the Patriots in last year’s playoffs.

Because seriously, last year was not so long ago that people should have forgotten this. I can’t even count the number of times I heard some variation of" if only the defense had gotten us the ball back for one last drive in the AFC championship, we would have driven the field and gone to the SB." And that’s coming from the same people who have completely lost faith in him because of what is essentially five to ten boneheaded plays while trying to run an offense from a coordinator who changes the ‘identity’ of the team more often than an old man changes his pants after burrito night.

At this point, the only players on the New York Jets who have CONCLUSIVELY proven that they are not capable of doing what they are paid to do are Eric Smith, Brian Schottenheimer and Calvin Pace. We KNOW that Schottenheimer sucks because he’s sucked with three different qbs. We KNOW that Eric Smith sucks because every team that has played us has targeted him with great success. And we KNOW that Pace is going to be a fine complementary rusher, but will not succeed without a dominant force rushing from the other side. From Mark, we’ve seen good, bad and ugly and there’s absolutely no definable trend at this point. He’s a typical young qb, and we are probably not going to know whether or not he’s the answer until the middle of next season.

Calvin Pace. Yea, he won’t get 15 sacks a year but hes good for 6-9 a year. The guy is a run stopper. If you look at OLBs that put up 15 sacks, you’ll only find Woodley and Ware. Woodley is not a good run stopper and Ware is a once in a decade talent. If you want to compare Pace to someone look at Lawrence Timmons. Guy can do everything pretty well. Pace does everything above average. Only players on this defense I would keep next year are Wilkerson, Revis, Cro, Wilson, Pace and Harris. Maybe Sione.

but some of these numbers are misleading. Why? Because many of those QBs had already had good to great years. Roethlesberger has a 98.1 and 98.6 QB rating BEFORE his bad 3rd year. Brees massive year was really his 3rd year (he had 1 start in 2001). As for Sanchez’ progress this year, it should be noted that Sanchez played last year in 4 horrible rain/wind starts and 3 snow starts. In the first 4 last year, all the QBs (Farve, Flacco, Rodgers, Henne) had horrible numbers too because the conditions were so bad. This year, a year where ALL passing numbers are way up, Sanchez has been blessed to play in perfect weather the entire season. I am not so sure how much improvement we have seen. It is true that we have had O-line problems, a revolving door at WR, a crap OC and running game problems all relative to previous years, but by and large Sanchez has not made big strides. It is not like Carr who got sacked 60 times a year behind the worst line in the league, so some of these excuses don’t ring so true. The best comparison if you want to be optimistic with Sanchez is Eli Manning, who had a similar team around him and still took a long time. But it is not like most good QBs took this long to develop…

Misleading was if I only listed QBs who had bad 3rd years. Doesn’t really matter if Brees spent one year on the bench. Rivers spent two full years on the bench before he became a starter. Your third season is your THIRD season no matter how you stack it. Under such an understanding this year would be Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 2nd season in the NFL despite playing for 7 years.

It is true Roethlisberger was efficient but he had a better team around him and a better coach. Most importantly, Roethlisberger in his first two seasons never had more than 17 TDs which is basically telling me that Cowher never put him in a position to fail. In his first 2 seasons, Roethlisberger was a game manager that was only asked to pass in safe situations. His 3rd year was the first time he was given responsibility and he led the league in INTs.

…I feel Sanchez will be fine and should grow by leaps and bounds if “The Team” can manage to correct a few major/obvious flaws. First and foremost the o-line needs to be upgraded. When MS has time in the pocket he looks great, the loss of Mangold showed the lack of depth as well. I always say “good teams start by building then o-line” ; in the case of “Gang Green” it is not MS who has regressed . The regression is the o-line (lost Woody) and did nothing to replace him. I blame this one on the GM. It is not only affecting MS but the RB core as well due to the lack of running lanes being opened up. This problem has caused an inept offense (run/pass) as well as adversely affecting the defensive unit as well by keeping them on the field too long(most games), too many 3 and outs, as well as being unable to score on opening drives(for the most part). MS has taken a beating this season and I am grateful he is healthy let alone his overall stats have improved.

The other problem is lack of pass rush on defense. This years squad is paying for the “Instant success” R.R. brought to the team by making it to the championship game in his first two years. This handcuffed the team during FA in back to back years due to final four rules as well as drafting behind teams that finished the season with better records in consecutive seasons. I would like to see this team make the playoffs and go on a run as it has the pas two years except that is coming from my heart and not my head. The team is good enough to make the playoffs and the schedule may allow it(from here on in), it has been tough to this point in my opinion i.e. last Thursday night the cross country game to “mile high” after a rivalry game with the Pat’s(I could go on). My head tells me this team needs a few more players to win a super bowl so this is a good time to watch which players are playing and improving so we can upgrade the few weak spots this team has. The coaching staff should be being evaluated as well. I have had enough “Shotty” @ OC and I feel the replacement is coaching our o-line. Callahan has proven he can do the job and he knows the team/talent. His replacement in my opinion would be T. Sporano as the writing is on the wall in Miami. He knows the division very well and in my estimation would be an excellent fit for “Gang Greens” future.

I don’t know if Sanchez will ever be a HoF QB. But here is what I do know. Sanchez is good enough to win a Super Bowl if the rest of the team is up to snuff.

Right now, when you remove Sanchez from the equation, the Jets are not a Super Bowl championship team. Sure, maybe a Tom Brady or a healthy Payton Manning could put the team on their backs and carry it to glory. But those guys are not available. So let’s deal with reality.

Reality is that it will be much easier to hire a new OC and plug the other personnel holes than it will be to find a QB who will be better than Sanchez will be next year.

So you are saying that Moore, Dalton, and McCoy are HoF QBs? Please.

I’m not saying that Sanchez is above criticism. I’m not saying that he is irreplaceable. And I’m not saying that the Jets’ couldn’t catch lightning in a bottle and find a cheap QB who morphs into a Super Bowl MVP. Who knows, maybe Moore will be the next Kurt Warner.

But you have to play the odds. And the odds say that it is unlikely that in the next couple of years the Jets can get a QB who is proven to be better than Sanchez without dismanting the rest of the team. So instead of hitting the panic button, it makes more sense to fix the supporting cast: the play-caller, the OL, and the receivers and then figure out what you have.

And, no, it doesn’t makes sense to assume that Sanchez will never improve and that if he couldn’t get past the AFC title game in the past then he never will.

…review. I feel two things. First we need to find another “Play making TE; who can block as well as receive”. Give us a TE similar to what Brady has in N.E. and on OC who knows how to use him(otherwise the first part will not matter). The second thing is it sounds as if M.Sanchez is a year ahead of P.Manning in his development(again we can thank our present OC/QB coaches for the failure to do their respective jobs)as I am seeing M. Sanches throw for almost as many “Pick 6’s” as T.D.‘s. The past two games he has thrown 3 T.D’s and 2 Pick 6’s for a net result of +7 points(These were very big games mind you). The AFC East has now all but been decided, The 2 losses in 4 days has the team in a tailspin and fighting for it’s life to make another Wild Card entry into the playoffs.

…mistakenly think we should draft a TE in the first round. There are plenty of holes to fill where the best player available, or trading up/down is probably in the best interest overall. With a full set of draft picks and no FA restrictions this team should be able to fill all the glaring holes and add depth as well. I see next year as the year this team continues it’s flight pattern to SB champions. We need to get over the growing pains to get stronger (IMO) unfortunately.