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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Jets at Broncos Preview: Gang Green Goes a Mile High

DENVER - NOVEMBER 14:  The evening sun lights up a group of clouds over the field as the moon rises during the third quarter between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos at INVESCO Field at Mile High on November 14 2010 in Denver Colorado. The Denver Broncos defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 49-29. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

If you ask me it's a must-win. I say that a lot though.

If you examine the schedules of the teams still in contention, an 11-5 record is necessary to secure a playoff berth with confidence. This only really allows for one more loss, otherwise the Jets will need extra help or for a couple of teams to straight up implode. Don't get me wrong, it's still very early so to speak. But in order to be a playoff team NY must handily dispense of the softer portions of their schedule without overlooking the opponents. Another loss isn't really a problem, but we gotta save it for a tough week. 10-6 still gives you a decent shot of making the postseason, but in the AFC (especially when you're in the Eastern division) going 10-6 and still making the playoffs relies entirely on the failures of other teams.

As I had mentioned earlier in the week, experiencing a radical elevation change on a short practice traveling week does Gang Green no favors. Even if Tim Tebow isn't all that and a box of Nilla Wafers, Denver poses challenges. New England really took it to Mark Sanchez in the backfield, and the pass rush options the Broncos have make the Patriots defense look like the Golden Girls.

I gotta hand it to Fox & Company, they've managed to make something out of an offense with a QB whose own coach says is seriously flawed with an accuracy of less than 45 percent. Their defense is loaded with talent both young and old. I expect a low scoring game with both defenses being constantly tested. In a team that runs 55 times and passes 8, with a QB with an accuracy that bad, you have to sell out against the run and stop it dead in its tracks. If the Jets make it so the Broncos cannot run, I have a very hard time seeing Denver winning this game.

Full breakdown after the rundown and the jump. Feel free to leave comments, questions, predictions; possessed visions of the future, recipes, and all that other fun crap below. Sorry this one went up so late, it's just a short week and I'm bogged down with academic work.

The Rundown

New York Jets Denver Broncos -- Today, 8:20 p.m. EST

Location: Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

Coverage: NFL Network. Sirius XM 93.

Record: The all time series including postseason is led by the Broncos, 16-15-1.

What happened last time? The Jets scored an improbable and exiting 4th quarter comeback victory you may remember, 24-20.

Injury report: 

Jets Out: Brodney Pool, Shawn Nelson, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Jeremy Kerley will all sit out the game. Everyone else will play. 

Broncos Out: Knowshon Moreno is listed as out but we already knew that. Questionable: Willis McGahee (RB) Hamstring. 

Rankings

Offense: The Jets are 23rd in overall offense, 14th in points, 20th in passing and 24th in rushing. Denver is 22nd in yards, 20th in points, 31st passing and 2nd in rushing.

Defense: The Jets are 8th overall, 8th against the pass, and 15th against the rush. Denver is 18th overall, 20th against the pass, and 16th against the run.

Star-divide

Bronco to Watch: QB Tim Tebow

I know, it's a cop out, but give me a chance. The Broncos are 2nd in rushing and their two top backs are injured. Denver will be relying heavily on Lance Ball. Beyond that, Tebow ultimately chooses to run it himself on nearly half of passing downs, and he averages around 220 yards on the ground per game. This is no small feat. The first step is using our powerful front seven to take away Tebow's run support. Then the Jets need to stop Tebow on the ground before worrying about stopping him through the air. Once the ground game is completely neutralized on all fronts, Tebow will be forced to try and beat one of the best secondaries in the NFL through the air with his 44.8 percent accuracy.

This is very manageable, but it requires diligent coverage of Eric Decker and Eddie Royal as Tebow can identify home run shots and take them.

Jets X-factor: Nick Folk

As I detailed earlier in the week, the air density in Denver is lower and by effect there is less air resistance to things like footballs kicked through the air. The Denver Broncos defense has some teeth, and I won't be surprised if they give Mark Sanchez and Brian Schottenheimer fits all night. Even if the Jets are consistently stopped short, Folk will have repeated chances to set personal records while building up a score against a team that may have trouble keeping pace offensively speaking.

Potential Jets MVP: David Harris

The linebacker corps MUST perform tonight in order to keep the Jets in the game. Harris must be active against the run and while Aaron Maybin is the speed option, I like Harris much more for blitz potential because he is a far better tackler and his awareness is superior. Tebow's passes usually travel 4-5 yards, so Harris might share some work tackling on quick throws and check downs.

All in all I like Harris for this matchup because this is the sort of exploitable and flawed offense that David thrives upon.

Prediction: Jets 16 Broncos 6

I think the Jets have a very good defensive matchup and if they keep the QB runs in check they very well may keep the Broncos out of the endzone entirely. The Broncos defense and specifically their pass rush make me cringe, especially when I think of the field day the Patriots bottom-ranked defense had last week. Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey will be waiting in the secondary for Sanchez to screw up. I think at the end of the day, the defense wins the game for the Jets.

J-E-T-S! JETS JETS JETS!!!

Comment 44 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Comments

Display:

Eric Decker, not Earl Decker

I agree that this is looking to be a low scoring game that the Jets should win…but who knows with the Jets.

by Nekked on Nov 17, 2011 1:53 PM EST reply actions  

yeah, if you refresh it's fixed

there’s always tagging issues on my first edit that go away within a few minutes.

Arm chair GM. Mod/contributing writer at SBN Jets blog GGN.
GangGreenNation.com

by Bro Namath on Nov 17, 2011 2:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I say we give them the reverse manning treatment

Like how in the AFC wild card game last year we had 7 or 8 DBs on the field all the time and force them to run, I say we make Tebow pass. For the first series only put Revis and Cro out there for our DBs and see what happens…. no safeties necessary.

by Manchize on Nov 17, 2011 1:54 PM EST reply actions  

Rex should just go with Buddy's 4-6, keep cro on the outside receiver and

keep Revis on press to be close to the line of scrimmage if runs get stretched. So it’s more like a 4-5, but I do agree our safeties are garbage.

by Timmaht on Nov 17, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

If we play Maybin extensively this week, he is bound to fact the run.

Let’s hope he can couple he “speed” and motor, with some quality tackling because he’s going to be expected to do more then take down a stationary QB or run down a slow one from behind.

by Timmaht on Nov 17, 2011 1:54 PM EST reply actions  

Hopefully we don't play Maybin extensively this week

The poor guy can’t tackle Tom Brady with a clean shot, Tebow is going to run the guy over.

by J-Nasty on Nov 17, 2011 2:00 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

It was one of the more pathetic "tackle" atlempts I've ever watched in an NFL game.

Up there wtih Cro’s anti-tackle on Greene when he was on the Chargers. Definitely, makes you question his ability in that regard.

by Timmaht on Nov 17, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Anyone know where the option responsabilities lie in the 3-4?

I know that in the 5-2 the ends take the QB and the LBs take the pitchman. I would imagine the OLBs would take the pitchman and the ILB would take the QB. If so, looks for Harris to get pieces of Tebow all over the place when he destorys him.

by Timmaht on Nov 17, 2011 1:57 PM EST reply actions  

As a Bronco fan

I think if you guys execute without turning the ball over then you can win, no sweat.

by valas40 on Nov 17, 2011 2:07 PM EST reply actions  

ya well

Considering you guys didn’t last week, I’d say you guys are due.

Hint: pass to whoever Andre Goodman is covering, he will be open 80% of the time

by valas40 on Nov 17, 2011 2:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I disagree. The key for the Jets is offense, not defense...

…a run happy attack like the Broncos’ will eat up a lot of time…

We cannot afford to go 3-and-out again and again like we did last week. As good as the defense is, they are going to get tired if that happens, then we lose.

by Proballxx on Nov 17, 2011 2:12 PM EST reply actions  

I couldn't agree more with this statement,

as most of my comments make apparent. Defense may win championships but offense can keep you from getting there.

by Timmaht on Nov 17, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

No matter what your opinion may be

I genuinely appreciate that you still comment on my posts in spite of the fact that I was so rude to you privately and in general.

Arm chair GM. Mod/contributing writer at SBN Jets blog GGN.
GangGreenNation.com

by Bro Namath on Nov 17, 2011 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, you think more of the offense than I do right now I guess

NE is the consistently worst defense in the league by far, to put things into perspective. Did you have any idea who Andre Carter was before last week? I know who Miller and Elvis are already.

Tebow averages 220 yards per game. The Broncos rushed 55 times and passed 8 last week. The key is run defense, which has steadily improved for the Jets over the course of several weeks.

Arm chair GM. Mod/contributing writer at SBN Jets blog GGN.
GangGreenNation.com

by Bro Namath on Nov 17, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

220 yards er game rushing*

Arm chair GM. Mod/contributing writer at SBN Jets blog GGN.
GangGreenNation.com

by Bro Namath on Nov 17, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

rex'd

For your username.

and the HOLMES of the... JETS!!!
Gang Green Nation | David Vill on Twitter
Am I just me? Or am I hot in here?

by dvdvil on Nov 17, 2011 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Is anyone else getting that sinking feeling

that Tebow is somehow going to throw for 300 yards and 3 TD? Jets can sometimes give up career days to so-so or below average players. I doubt it will happen, but…

by O-Insanity on Nov 17, 2011 3:23 PM EST reply actions  

Only

If the Jets had to play the game with half their defensive players

"Matty Mo thinks it's different. He must be extra high today." BobbyNystromOwnsYou on Moulson's response to Isles black jerseys.
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.

by Mark D on Nov 17, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Does this mean David Harris will force Tebow to join the Mile High Club?

- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.

Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider

by Finhead83 on Nov 17, 2011 3:38 PM EST reply actions  

I'm sticking to what I've said earlier in the week...

Jets lose…a close, ugly, low scoring game…

I hope I’m dead wrong, Sanchez throws for 350 and Greene runs all over the place, but I can’t stop worrying…

I’m not afraid of Teboner (that’s and awesome user name) or anything the Broncos can do…I’m just worried about the in house problems the Jets are facing…

We shall see…

by Down Since '86 on Nov 17, 2011 4:04 PM EST reply actions  

Key to the Game

we better get a fast start and put up some points in the first half. The Broncos have very little chance of winning if they are playing from behind. If we can get up by 14 and play defense, their offense is not built for playing catch up, then Tebow will be forced to take some chances and put it in the air.

by Chrebetfan on Nov 17, 2011 4:07 PM EST reply actions  

In honor of Tebow, here is Denver's new logo...

Photobucket

- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.

Contributing Writer to the The Phinsider

by Finhead83 on Nov 17, 2011 4:15 PM EST reply actions  

Hope we see a bunch of K. Ellis, heck even MTV

We’re gonna need a lot of rotation up front.

Hope we use Ducasse as an extra linemen and run 40 times too. Lets see what McKnight and Pow can do. Use the play action and spread it around.

I’m tired of bad mouthing Schotty I hope he doesn’t continue to disappoint!

by GangGreenGol4 on Nov 17, 2011 4:22 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah we’re going to need a lot of rotation today to make sure nobody is gassed in the 4th quarter. I’d like to see a lot of linemen in there, rotate the secondary (except Revis) when possible, spread the carries around if possible for the RBs, etc.

Founder of www.myspace.com

by bobdolethesnapplelady on Nov 17, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I think we can easily make the playoffs at 10-6

Assuming ravens/steelers take 1 wild card, we just need to finish better than the bills, bengals, chargers, and titans. I dont see any of those teams going 10-6.

Jets - Knicks - Mets

by jayvb on Nov 17, 2011 5:53 PM EST reply actions  

Should be an interesting game!

It’s gonna come down to turnovers and sacks. If you guys play like you did on Sunday I expect you will have a hard time winning in Denver. You guys have a great team and a great coach. I wish you good luck and I hope lose. Said with the utmost respect, of course.

We conquered this territory with our bodies and souls, then we watered it with our tears.
Go Denver!

by SSinSD on Nov 17, 2011 6:07 PM EST reply actions  

Discounting the short turnaround

It is quite amazing that the media is completely discounting two ideas:

a) The Jets have not had adequate time to prepare for the zone-read option offense and came off a tough loss against the Patriots on Sunday.

b) The Broncos defensive players claim they are well rested for this game because of the offense controlling the ball against the Chiefs despite the short turnaround.

by technopeasant on Nov 17, 2011 6:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Just stopped by to get a bead on what the other side is saying.

I’ve been reading a lot of Bro Namath’s comments and like what I read. Now, before I go on, don’t get me wrong. I’m rooting for the Broncos and have been since the mid sixties, the nineteen sixties, not the eighteen sixties like my kids seem to think. But I also remember rooting for Joe Willy against the Colts and nobody was happier than me when he led the Jets to victory in what is now called Super Bowl III. It was the best thing that could have happened to pro football at the time.

I like what I read from Bro Namath because he seems to be a true football fan, pulling for his team, rightfully confident but also realistic, and treats the fans of others teams with respect, even when they sometimes don’t deserve it.

I’m really looking forward to this game tonight. Frankly, unlike many on both our sites, (I’m an avid reader of Mile High Report), I don’t know how it’s going to turn out. It is intriguing though.

I don’t buy what some are saying that the Jets weakness on defense is the running game. I suppose relatively speaking that might be true as compared to the Jets CB’s, but what I see is a defensive front that has been getting stronger against the run, and at least one under appreciated linebacker. I respectfully withhold judgment on Maybin. I think you’re getting the most out of him as a situational rushing specialist. I’ll let time reveal whether he can be more than that. I almost called your front a front seven but that’s not quite right is it? I know the Jets use a lot of five and even six DB looks.

Either way, I’m really looking forward to seeing how they match up, over the course of a full game against the power running game of the Broncos. I know I’ve read here and elsewhere that this read-option offense is a “college offense”. I could be wrong but I think it t might be a mistake to treat it lightly. John Fox is thought of as a defense-first head coach and that is true, but he is also a run-first coach and he and McCoy, the O.C., have been pretty good at adding new twists and surprises, even to the rushing aspects of this offense.

I’m no genius but I’m guessing McCoy might also add a little more passing to this offense. I think he might try to isolate our tight ends or a running back on your safties. It may not happen this week but I think it’s coming. I don’t know if this will work. That will probably depend on how well Tebow throws the ball, but if all you see are high lights, (low lights?) you might think he isn’t capable of making those throws. That might be a mistake, too. This is really only the third week of this offense so we’ll see, but I would be very surprised if it is nolonger viable after tonight.

And as for the Broncos’ D against the Jets’ O, I see this as a very interesting match up as well. I think many under estimate the Jets running game, but I don’t. I expect the Jets to try to use it well, especially draws, until the Broncos prove that they can stop it. At the very least, it will help to slow down the Broncos’ pass rush. I would expect to see some quick, short passes to the flat, wheel routes, and screens for the same reason. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Sanchez get some good yardage if he scrambles, especially if a lane opens up in the middle of the pocket.

In an ideal Bronco world, I’m hoping the Broncos can grind the ball down the field, get up by at least two scores and then unlease their pass rush. But I’m expecting a close, hard fought game and I think that would be O.K. for the Broncos too. If they can just keep it close I’d put my money on Tebow finding some way to pull it out at the end.

Somewhere in all this I read someone who said that if the Jets get out to a quick lead, the Broncos won’t be able to catch them. I think that’s a fair estimate. However, I’m not sure even then it would force the Broncos out of the running game unless it’s at least a three score lead. I’m sure they will still want to keep it as close as possible, forcing as many three-and-outs as they can, and hoping for a turn over or for Tebow to catch fire as he sometimes does.

I don’t expect a blow out, by either club. I think both defenses are good enough to keep that from happening. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one turned out a lot like the game last year, turning on a single play near the end of the game, only this time, I hoping it isn’t some Bronco touching a face mask.

Either way, here’s to a good, hard fought and injury free game and good luck to your Jets for the rest of the season, except, you know, when we meet again in the AFC Championship game, lol.

If this be Hell, let us make the most of it!

by Trinidad Jack on Nov 17, 2011 6:25 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

Thank you for your gracious words and reasonable analysis

I realize calling the Jets run D weak is subjective, but it’s in terms of ranking. Much like some aspects of the Broncos game, it has improved in recent weeks, and the Jets sit at a season high ranking of 15th in rush defense. Middle of the pack.

I’m not sure what’s about to happen myself, BUT I have a strong feeling that we’ll learn more about who each team is tonight, and that the winner will be firmly in the playoff hunt.

Arm chair GM. Mod/contributing writer at SBN Jets blog GGN.
GangGreenNation.com

by Bro Namath on Nov 17, 2011 6:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Rex'd

Good post.

Founder of www.myspace.com

by bobdolethesnapplelady on Nov 17, 2011 7:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Do or Die game

ive been saying thiss all week. This is it man, if the Jets lose tonight then we can stop thinking bout playoffs. this game is too huge nd its a MUST WIN

by JetRoyalty on Nov 17, 2011 7:17 PM EST reply actions  

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