Should a Team Up By Seven Points Go for Two?
by John B on Sep 27, 2010 7:56 PM EDT
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PrintLast night when the Jets scored a touchdown in the final 2:00 to go up by 8, it brought up a situation I have thought about a lot through the years. I think there is a legitimate argument to be made for going for a 2 point conversion in that spot.
Think it through. It is kind of like a free shot to ice the game in that situation. If the Jets went for it and hit it, they would have been up by 9 points. The game would have essentially been over. Had they missed, they would still be up by 7. A touchdown still would have only tied it.
Maybe if the Dolphins were down by 7 and scored, they would have gone for 2 and the win. The thing is very few coaches would make that call and risk the backlash of throwing away a chance to win it in overtime if it doesn't work. Assume Miami had gone for 2. The Jets would have had to stop a 2 point conversion to win if they were up by 8 anyway.
What do you think?
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I guess we both come from the ‘new school" era of football, that’s why I agree with you.
A lot of guys and analysts are on the other side of the fence, though. But as far as strategy goes, I agree. Ice the game if you can, just like the Jets did last week with LT on 4th down sealing the game
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No.
I highly doubt if we were up by 7 and they scored that they would have went for 2. I think they did the right thing by kicking the FG cause it’s a lot harder to get the 2pt after a touchdown than a FG & its much more of a challenge
i say yes because if you get it, game over
if you dont, the other team STILL has to drive all the way down the field and score a TD, plus an XP just to tie
i was praying last night that you guys wouldn’t go for 2…
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Not good
I think being up by 8 will make it harder for the team trying to catch up. They have to score a TD and go for 2 to tie. Put the pressure on them. I was praying the Jets would not go for 2 also, but for the reason if we missed it would make it easier for the phins to tie if we miss.
Absolutely
As soon as the Jets got down inside the 10 yard-line, I mentioned to my friends that I was watching the game with that they should go for the 2pt if they score.
I highly doubt Sparano has the guts to go for 2pt and the win if they Jets didn’t get it and the Fins scored. You have a chance to ice the game and not even give Miami a solid chance, take advantage.
+1
This is what my feeling was. If you nail the 2pt conversion, you are now up by 9; 2 possessions needed to win and the game essentially iced. On the other hand if you miss, now your up by 7. Chances of a coach risking the game by going for 2 in the final seconds of play are slim to none. No coach is going to risk losing vs sending the game into OT.
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You make some solid points, but I have to disagree. There’s something to be said of the added pressure that is applied to a team needing to go the length of the field in a hurry-up AND score a two-point JUST to tie. Remember how quickly the Fins got to our Red Zone before turning it over on downs? That might have been an easier workload for Henne if he knew he only needed the TD to take it to overtime, not to mention less harrowing for our defense.
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No
Especially with the Jets D. They can possibly stop the 2 point conversion Miami would have to go for if Miami scores. If the Jets go and miss it’s likely Miami goes for the win at home as well.
I completely thought about that before they bumbled into it
on the telecast, and I was really hoping they would ice the game there. It was foot on the throat time there. The drive was dispiriting to the Dolphins, and the truth is ending it right there would have made a different statement, a finishing of the game in intelligence that matched the wonderful 12th man on the field replay call.
When the PA was kicked, I was okay with it, but I got the feeling that Ryan didn’t want to do anything that would be questioned by the media. He’s trying to be a bit by the book, just as when he kicked the FG to start the Ravens game.
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The thing is, our D was dead tired, and Rex knew that the chances of Miami driving on us were very good
and low and behold, they drove down the field on us with little problem. The phins goal line D is really good, so the chances of us scoring 2 was probably a lot less likely than the Phins getting within 10 yards of a tie, and OT.
Get busy winning or get busy losing.
Last night...
I would have gone for two. Here’s why:
Your offense is hot and your QB is hot. You have a chance to, short of a miracle, END THE GAME. Put it in the hands of the guys that are making things happen.
Inversely, your defense is tired and hasn’t looked good even when fresh. Your secondary is being eaten for breakfast and going for one puts their offense in a 4 down, nothing to lose situation.
Let their offense come out into a situation where it basically looks hopeless. Odds are low that Miami would have tried to win right then and there by running their own 2 after watching you blow your own. All the newspapers would say the next day would be: Miami coach repeat’s Jet’s coach mistake to blow it.
Rex has a lot of faith in the D though and I think he makes it a point to let them know that. I have a feeling that’s why they just went for 1.
from Advanced NFL Stats.com
I love this site. this isn’t their best work, but interesting.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/09/should-jets-have-gone-for-2.html
as an aside, although my gut initially said to go for it, I changed my mind for the simple reason that by kicking the XP it created a situation where the Dolphins had to get in the endzone twice – if the Jets stopped them either time they won. Maybe its illogical, but it felt like the Jets had a freebie, even if the Dolphins did score, they had to do it again to tie.
ummm... I could be wrong, but isn't it the same difference?
If a PAT puts you up by 8, the phins need a touchdown, plus a FG (presumably from an successful onside kick which doesn’t happen often, something like 38% of the time) which would give them 10 points.
If a 2pt conversion puts you up by 9, the phins still win with a touchdown and a FG because they’d now win by one.
Under that circumstance, it make no sense to go for 2, because if the attempt fails, then the Jets are only up by 7. In all my years watching football, it seems like teams never seem to have trouble moving the ball down field in 30 seconds (although they fail to do that for most of the game lol). A touchdown ties it, and likely sends the game to OT in which a coin flip could very well decide the game.
I really can’t see the advantage of going for 2 in that senario
what i dont see in your post is that the fins can score a td and also go for 2, so they dont NEED to get a td and fg. They could suffice with a td and 2 point to tie it up and if that failed, attempt the onside and try for a field goal to win.
I dont disagree with your conclusion, but there is some merit to the discussion.
PS the teams move down the field in 30 seconds late in the 4th quarter cause mostly the D goes to a cover 2 formation, giving up the short and mid yards but clamping down on a big play by playing the safeties back. They want the offense to have to go 6-8 plays to move down field instead of 2. each completion burns 5 seconds off the clock, plus a little more to move the o line upfield for the next snap, so probably 10-15 seconds per play. Even an incomplete pass or a pass to the sidelines runs off 5 seconds. If you have to do that 6 or 8 times to score (and the D can keep you inbounds), you burn off nearly 2 minutes, or have to take time out or spike the ball. But giving up the big play is bad cause they can either score on a single play or move too quickly down field and take advantage of the remaining time to tie or win the game.
I hate cover2 but the reason teams do it is to try to expire the clock before the opponent has time to move into scoring position, its not to cause a turnover (although that does happen if you play good coverage).
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you miss the two point conversion and you take all the momentum away from your team.
People are talking like going for it is a given. If it was so easy more teams would go for the win when they score a last second TD down seven. The hardest part of the field to gain yardage is at the five yard line and in. Too many Madden players responding to this post.
Exactly. The reason this decision isn’t ever made is because it’s reckless gambling. It’s more difficult to make the conversion, so why place that burden on your OWN team? Make the opponent run the low percentage play to tie the game.
by nationalist88 on Sep 28, 2010 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
the numbers vary on your sources but…
2 point conversion rate is about 40-55% depending on the year where as the extra point rate is something like 98-99%. Although I agree with you in this case for the Jets, I think in some cases it would make sense to go for it especially if you have a better offense than the opposing defense, which you can’t prove but could give you that better than 50% chance of making it
I think it could go either way depending on your team, if I was the colts coach I would go for two because I trust my offense(Manning) more then my defense. If I was Rex I would kick it and make the other team go for two because I trust my defense more then my offense. Last night was a bit different because our D gave up a lot and the O won the game. However the D still came up with the stop at the end when it needed to. Additionally kicking it is the safe play because there is really no way you can loose without going to overtime, cuz even if the D gives up the TD and the 2 point conversion your still going to OT. I think in this case kicking it and going up by 8 gave us the most chance to win the game.
I voted no
but I asked the same thing to my buddies during the game. going for 2 puts it out of reach where if you blow it the other team still needs to score and then win in OT (I dont see the fins going for 2 to win in regulation).
BUT of course, being the NFL, you go for the extra point, push it to 8 and force the dolphins to score twice just to tie (a td and a 2 point conversion) and then score again for the win. If they Jets D cant keep the fins out 1 of those 3 attempts, well then maybe we shouldnt win the game.
If I was playing madden I would go for 2, which is why I thought of it during the game, but in real life you probably assume 8 is enough of a lead if you are supposedly one of the best D’s in the league.
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