FOA 2010 NYJ | The Good, The Bad & The Ugly
by rick34125 on Jul 1, 2010 10:07 PM EDT
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Football Outsiders has come out with their annual football almanac and this year they have made their write up on the New York Jets available for free. It's worth the read if you have the time. They support all their assertions with their brand of statistical analysis. Some of it is compelling, while some of it is, well, not so compelling.
In short, the thrust of their write up on the 2010 Jets is that they will contend for the playoffs, but in different fashion than last year. Whereas last year the Jets success depended on the ground and pound and pass defense, this year those two areas will decline somewhat and the arm of Mark Sanchez and the pass rush will emerge to balance the team's success.
Here are just some of the points they bring out in the almanac about the Jets, which I've arranged as the Good, the Bad and the Ugly.
The Good
The Jets mean projection for 2010 is 9.8 wins and are expected to be a playoff contender (albeit not in the way one would expect)
...On Offense
- Sanchez should be more mature this year and resemble the post season more than the regular season. His maturity in the passing game should offset the decline in the running game and the pass defense.
...On Defense
- Since 1993 the 2009 Jets had one of the 4 best pass defenses.
- Revis made the biggest impact on the #1 defense and should have been voted the DPOY. Revis could slip in his performance in 2010 and still be the best CB in the league since he's that good.
- Based on their QB hurry rate and sack rate the Jets defense should have more sacks in 2010.
- The Jets have a good linebacker unit.
- Bart Scott's sack total should rise next year based on his QB hits and hurries from last year.
The Bad
Although they were better than just an average team and could have won a couple of more regular season games diminishing their need for lady luck they were not as good as their playoff run suggests.
...On Offense
- "Ground Greene" will probably decline in 2010.
- The run of good health for the offensive line is not likely to continue.
- In the short-term the Jets will suffer through Vlad Ducasse's developing into a LG.
...On Defense
- No top pass defense in the last 16 years has been able to match their performance for the following year.
- Revis had such an exceptional year he will likely not be able to match it in 2010.
- The Jets defense is vulnerable to the screen pass.
- Vernon Gholston will not be a good fit at DE in Ryan's 3-4 defense.
- Anotonio Cromartie will probably resemble Lito Sheppard's season from last year.
- Don't expect Kyle Wilson to make any significant contributions as a rookie.
The Ugly
- Nick Folk is so bad based on his performance in 2007 and 2008 that he will have to be replaced by the end of the season.
So what do you think? Do you agree with FO? Disagree? Let us know in the comments below.
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Nice write-up but I don’t really see why the Leonard thing should be under bad. It’s good since the system is the same and he’s still a part of it.
i see your point
although leonhard might take offense, as long as he’s playing here it’s certainly not a bad thing. i’ll take it out. :)
"212 degrees" - NY Jets 2010 offseason approach
At 211 degrees, water is hot.
At 212 degrees, water boils and makes steam.
With steam one can power a locomotive.
"One marginal degree, just like a small additional effort, can make all the difference."
Some of these predictions are based on facts and others are based
on Bull S_it. You don’t even have to be a football fan to see Nick Folk is gonna cost us some games, if not the season. I agree the sacks will be up and the ground game will decline. However, all the other predictions are not based on any facts. EX: •Antonio Cromartie will probably resemble Lito Sheppard’s season from last year. Two different types of players, so how can anybody predict how Cromartie will play. A stronger indication is he’s playing in a contract year, so if he’s trying to get paid next year, he better shine this up and coming season. I believe the Jets defense will be better due to the improvement from a better pass rush. Our offense is totally dependant on Mark Sanchez. If he does not improve and we be so dependant on the run, then we are in trouble. Sometimes even with a great defense, teams get an early jump on you. If Sanchez can’t keep defenses honest, then there’s no coming back from any deficit. Lets hope he can make his receivers better as much as they will make him better.
the fact is FO didn't really address Cromartie directly
they just seemed to imply that he would be another lito sheppard. probably based on his stats from the last couple of years and his trying to have a comeback year just like sheppard who never really lived up to expectations.
i’ve got to think cromartie will play well this year. partly because it’s a contract year like you mentioned, but mostly because of rex’s endorsement of him. rex has repeatedly said cromartie was the best offseason addition the jets made. you can actually see rex drooling when he talks about cromartie ;)
"212 degrees" - NY Jets 2010 offseason approach
At 211 degrees, water is hot.
At 212 degrees, water boils and makes steam.
With steam one can power a locomotive.
"One marginal degree, just like a small additional effort, can make all the difference."
Sheppard is 3 years older and was not even a starter his last year with Philly. Cro will be great playing the number 2 receivers in a primarily man to man scheme. And why exactly won’t Kyle Wilson have a significant impact playing the slot?
by USA on Jul 3, 2010 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions
simply put he's a rookie and rookie CBs need time to develop even 1st round draft picks.
"212 degrees" - NY Jets 2010 offseason approach
At 211 degrees, water is hot.
At 212 degrees, water boils and makes steam.
With steam one can power a locomotive.
"One marginal degree, just like a small additional effort, can make all the difference."
That report basically summed up everything I was thinking about this coming season
The only thing I would disagree with is that I don’t see the defense declining to such a great degree that we still wouldn’t be in the top 5, if not #1 once again. Cromartie will have a bigger impact than I think they anticipate.
Also I think that they are saying that Revis had the best season of any player ever, not just that he was DPoY >_>;;
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