FanPost

FOA 2010 NYJ | The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

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Football Outsiders has come out with their annual football almanac and this year they have made their write up on the New York Jets available for free. It's worth the read if you have the time. They support all their assertions with their brand of statistical analysis. Some of it is compelling, while some of it is, well, not so compelling.

In short, the thrust of their write up on the 2010 Jets is that they will contend for the playoffs, but in different fashion than last year. Whereas last year the Jets success depended on the ground and pound and pass defense, this year those two areas will decline somewhat and the arm of Mark Sanchez and the pass rush will emerge to balance the team's success.

Here are just some of the points they bring out in the almanac about the Jets, which I've arranged as the Good, the Bad and the Ugly.

The Good

The Jets mean projection for 2010 is 9.8 wins and are expected to be a playoff contender (albeit not in the way one would expect)

...On Offense

  • Sanchez should be more mature this year and resemble the post season more than the regular season. His maturity in the passing game should offset the decline in the running game and the pass defense.

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...On Defense

  • Since 1993 the 2009 Jets had one of the 4 best pass defenses.
  • Revis made the biggest impact on the #1 defense and should have been voted the DPOY. Revis could slip in his performance in 2010 and still be the best CB in the league since he's that good.
  • Based on their QB hurry rate and sack rate the Jets defense should have more sacks in 2010.
  • The Jets have a good linebacker unit.
  • Bart Scott's sack total should rise next year based on his QB hits and hurries from last year.

The Bad

Although they were better than just an average team and could have won a couple of more regular season games diminishing their need for lady luck they were not as good as their playoff run suggests.

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...On Offense

  • "Ground Greene" will probably decline in 2010.
  • The run of good health for the offensive line is not likely to continue.
  • In the short-term the Jets will suffer through Vlad Ducasse's developing into a LG.

...On Defense

  • No top pass defense in the last 16 years has been able to match their performance for the following year.
  • Revis had such an exceptional year he will likely not be able to match it in 2010.
  • The Jets defense is vulnerable to the screen pass.
  • Vernon Gholston will not be a good fit at DE in Ryan's 3-4 defense.
  • Anotonio Cromartie will probably resemble Lito Sheppard's season from last year.
  • Don't expect Kyle Wilson to make any significant contributions as a rookie.

The Ugly

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  • Nick Folk is so bad based on his performance in 2007 and 2008 that he will have to be replaced by the end of the season.

So what do you think? Do you agree with FO? Disagree? Let us know in the comments below.

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