JB's Jets Mock Draft
by John B on Apr 17, 2010 1:09 PM EDT
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PrintThere is less than a week until the Draft. As things stand, this is how I see things playing out for the Jets (not necessarily what I want to happen).
Jets trade 29th overall pick and 61st overall pick to Atlanta for 19th pick and select Earl Thomas, S, Texas
I know a lot of people are against trading up and want to trade down to pick up as many players as possible in the deepest Draft in years. Let's be honest, though. That isn't how Mike Tannenbaum works. He finds a guy he loves and targets him. I think it would be an upset if the Jets didn't trade up in the first round. At this point, my guess is it will be for Thomas, a ballhawking cover safety who could play the Ed Reed role the Jets wanted Kerry Rhodes to play. Brodney Pool is an injury risk and a stopgap. Thomas can solidify free safety for a decade.
Jets use the 124th pick to select Linval Joseph, DT, East Carolina
Joseph went in the first round of our mock. He is very big and athletic. In another year, he probably would be gone by this point. This Draft is so deep, it's realistic to expect him to drop here. He has the talent to be a dominant force on the defensive line, but he is inconsistent. I could see Rex believing he can get the most out of this guy. He could project to end or tackle in the 3-4.
Jets use the 198th pick to select Jared Veldheer, T, Hillsdale
If there's one thing we know about Mike Tannenbaum's Draft philosophy, it's that he likes to trade up for players he likes and isn't afraid to give up a lot to get them. If there's a second thing, it's that he likes to take developmental tackles in the late rounds. The Jets have taken one three years in a row, Jacob Bender, Nate Garner, and Matt Slauson. Veldheer is 6'8" 312 pounds and has excellent athleticism. Having played at a small school, he is a project, but there is upside.
Jets use 236th pick to select Kerry Meier, WR, Kansas
Meier is a big receiver with good hands the Jets could try to develop to work underneath potentially to play the slot one day. He was also Kansas' backup quarterback, which could give him some value as a gadget player.
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Will Thomas be there?
The two problems I see with your mock draft is 1) I think the odds are against Thomas being available at the 19th pick and 2) I think this is one of those rare years where the 2nd round picks are so strong that the Jets can get two quality starters staying put and not trying to move up.
1) I think the odds are against Thomas being available at the 19th pick
There’s a chance he’s gone, but there’s also a solid chance he’s there.
2) I think this is one of those rare years where the 2nd round picks are so strong that the Jets can get two quality starters staying put and not trying to move up.
You may think that’s the best way to go, but does Mike T? His past suggests not.
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Granted, Trader Mike likes to move up in the draft, but look at the positions he’s targeted. In the first round its been Revis at corner, Keller at TE and Sanchez at quarterback. In the 2nd he’s moved up for DH, and in the 3rd he chased Shonn Greene. With the Keller trade, they snuck back into the first round to nab what they thought was the best pass-catcher available in a weak draft for WRs. So even discounting the general first round value of WRs, the Jets have pretty much only gone after impact talent at premium positions when trading in the first round. This isn’t to say that Mike won’t move up, who can say. My point is that safety is a non-premium position, and though Tannenbaum likes to exploit market inefficiencies when trading draft picks, I can’t see him paying such a steep price in such a deep draft for a safety. It seems like Darren Sharper is interested, they’ve got Pool, Digs, Smith, even Lowry….
I don’t really agree here. Tight end isn’t a premium position either, and they already had Baker and Franks on the roster. Although that was the time Baker started making noise about his contract, they kept him. They already had TJ and Leon when they moved up for Greene.
Safety is a bigger need than TE or RB were at those times, and Sharper isn’t a part of the equation at all.
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A couple of points...
You’re right, TE isn’t a premium position and they had no CB opposite Revis, but it seems that Tannenbaum drafts for glaring value over glaring need. In the Jets’ estimation, Keller was not just the top TE on the board, he was the top receiver including wideouts. So I don’t think the Keller pick can be painted with a non-premium position brush. And as far as glaring need and glaring value: 1) the Greene pick wasn’t a 1st rounder and 2) according to Clinkscales his grade was so high that they had to act when he slipped all the way to the 3rd round.
Neither of those examples lead me to believe that the Jets will be targeting a Safety for a big first round trade-up.
And just to be clear, this is not a knock on Earl Thomas (or Eric Berry for that matter). Safety is just a non-premium, short shelf-life position. I’d just rather spend a 1st rounder on a premium position where (barring injury) you can bank on a guy being a ten year starter in this league. Those positions tend to be QB, OL, DL, edge rushers, and CBs and there is a reason they’re chockablock in most first rounds. From what I’ve seen, Tannenbaum thinks the same way.
Tight end is not wide receiver. They are two different positions.
Safety is a premium position for a defense like the Jets run. Tell Rex Ed Reed didn’t play a premium position. There’s nothing to suggest Thomas won’t lock down free safety for ten years.
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1) You’re right, tight end is not wide receiver, but funny enough Keller spends time in the slot and isn’t exactly known for his blocking. You can label him as conservatively as you like, it still doesn’t change the fact that he was the highest rated receiver remaining on the Jets board. They didn’t trade up for an in-line blocker.
2) You’re making a chicken-and-the-egg argument with Ed Reed. Rex Ryan didn’t make Reed one of the greatest safeties ever, but he did adapt his philosophy to a singular talent. The lesson here, when you have a safety like Ed Reed you bend your scheme to his particular skills, when you have a Kerry Rhodes you toss him on the scrap heap and build the defense you want. I don’t usually take what Cimini says as gospel, but here’s what he wrote on his blog yesterday in reference to Taylor Mays, “Mays probably will be gone by the 29th pick, but as some personnel people around the league pointed out to me, safety isn’t a value position in Rex Ryan’s defense. The value positions are nose tackle (good ones are hard to find), pass rushers and cornerbacks. Lots of cornerbacks.”
Ultimately you’re right and Earl Thomas is a singular talent or you’re over-valuing the safety position. And when you say there’s nothing to suggest Thomas won’t hold the position for the next ten years, I’d like to use the great Ed Reed as an example. Safety is an extremely violent position, and Ed Reed, only eight years in the league (which I know is semantics, eight years is an eternity in the NFL, especially true for a safety), is right now considering retirement.
by My Pet Goat on Apr 18, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Reason #3
It also seems unlikely they would target a safety and leave themselves without a second round pick if they haven’t signed a DE by the draft.
ET at 19 ? i think your gonna have too go higher
if spiller,morgan,McClain are gone and that is very likely. i see the giants taking him.Another highly likely landing spot is pitt
It’s possible he’ll be gone, but your scenario depends on three guys being gone at 15 who all could drop. I can’t imagine Pittsburgh as a likely landing spot. They’re insane if they don’t go offensive line.
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Interesting
as Earl Thomas is considered a great pick by a lot of Steelers fans. There was a lot of calls for a G or C at first but DB seems to be the way most have been leaning lately.
In all reality no ones knows who the Steelers will draft but it will likely be whom ever they feel is BPA (other than QB or TE) regardless of the position. 1st year players don’t tend to start (yes there will be exceptions) for the Steelers so I don’t expect they will pick someone to fill their current holes in the first round unless they are desperate.
And then we all woke up!
by Cold_Old_Steelers_Fan on Apr 17, 2010 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Well I guess I have to take your word for it, right? ;-)
You are right. They do tend to neglect the offensive line in the Draft. They’ve been doing it for years. It’s crazy if you ask me, but maybe it will happen.
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I admit I have no great knowledge. I have been basing it on what I have been seeing on the various comments of people at BTSC who seemed to know what they are talking about. There have been 3 main camps of opinion over the last month. 1) wants a DB because it is perceived that the secondary (when Troy is out) is insufficient. 2) Wants a top O-Line (preferably Center or Guard). 3) Wants McClain because think what our LB core would be like!
As an under current has been a consensus by those who seem (imo) to have the deepest knowledge of the team, that the Steelers with take the best player available in the pool (that being anything other than TE or QB) at the time they draft. With that as the basis of the decision making the majority agree that although Iupati is likely the best o-line and Pouncey is the best center that are likely to fall to 18, they may not be the best players. Urbik and Foster still have upside and it may well be that Tomlin has plans for them this year.There is a good chance a good DB (Thomas or Wilson) will fall to us and as we may need another CB (No one is certain how the two we drafted last year will pan out) and we do need depth behind Troy (injuries) and Clark (age), we are more likely to take one of them.
There are other O-line in the draft in later rounds who show potential although the same could be said for safeties as well. It seems to be the consensus, with a few notable hold outs that the 1st round choice, no matter which position will only get spot duty this season.
Having said all that , if we take O-line in first round I would think it will be Iupati though you never can tell who will drop that far.
And then we all woke up!
by Cold_Old_Steelers_Fan on Apr 18, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Reason #4
I also think they have to realize they had two major weakness on defense against good offensive teams (colts, colts and colts). 1) they had weaknesses in the secondary and they had no pass rush to speak of. They done a good job of shoring up the secondary but have done nothing to help the pass rush. If nothing changes between now and the draft with regards to helping the pass rush (no Taylor signing) again I don’t believe they will target a safety to the detriment of losing that second round pick.
Thomas
As much as I’d like Earl Thomas, I think we should stay put and take DL/OLB with our first two picks, and not neccesarily in that order. I don’t believe there is anyway that the Giants take Thomas Mr Troy. They already have 2 starting caliber corners in Ross, and Webster, and they have their Safeties in Phillips, and Antrel Rolle, who they made the highest paid safety in the league. Jerry Reese is a best available guy though he likes to place a priority on positional value. There is no way the Giants leave the first round without their MLB of the future IMO. The main reason the Jets had major weaknesses in the secondary is because of a LACK OF PASS RUSH WITHOUT BLITZING. We need a guy in the first or second round that can rush the passer. (hopefully not only that) If we get a guy that can be our Demarcus Ware for example, there is no way we don’t make the playoffs. It doesn’t matter how good your secondary is, if the QB has all day to throw, eventually someone will get open. I know we all are anxious for the draft, and bored with lack of real news guys. But lets not go to crazy……….
strongly disagree
if no McClain we go BPA..lots of mikes in this draft..lee ,chaney or butler in 2nd round..phillips is a 50/50 crap shoot..nobody can say if he will be the same thats why they brought in deon grant from seattle…
McClain for who?
Demarcus Wares don’t grow on trees.
+1 Revis24
No two ways about it; you want to stop a passing team you need to put their QB on his ass. The Giants told you all you need to know in stopping the most prolific passing team in history by beating up their quarterback in the Superbowl vs the Patriots. They inserted a pass-rushing end at DT and played a 4-3 with 3 rushers up front, and just beat Brady up. And the Giants had a weak secondary that year.
by nationalist88 on Apr 17, 2010 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Steelers
The Steelers have to go OL btw, because regardless of what they say, they need to prepare for a future in which Big Ben doesn’t wake the F##k Up. Either way they should go OL, because even if Ben doesn’t have any more issues, eventually all those hits he takes will catch up. This way also, if Ben does continue to be an idiot/@$$hole, the OL will be ready for the next QB they take/more emphasis on the run game. Big Ben is probably the only one that could win behind that OL like he has.
The Truth
If the Jets are trade up for a safety why wouldn’t they trade up for Eric Berry. This is dumb.
well it would take a lot more to trade up for berry who won’t make it past cleveland. the jets do not have the firepower to move up that high.
So I think John is trying to make the point that the Jets need a FS and the only way they could move up to get one is by taking Thomas.
by chrebetsthebet on Apr 17, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
We don’t have the depth or draft picks to get into the top 10.Eric Berry is a nice though, but in reality it just can’t happen. I like Earl Thomas, he is the best cover safety in the draft, but I’m dead against trading up and giving up our 2nd round pick. Although the whole point outlined in the first paragraph is what could happen, and trading up for Thomas is a possibility with Mike, even though I disagree with the notion we even need a FS, Brodney Pool will flourish in our system, like he has been saying, before being put on the IR this year which he didn’t want to go on, he only missed one game doe to a concussion, and that was years ago. Blown completely out of proportion IMO. People will be pleasantly surprised by Pool.
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Right, we could not get anywhere near Eric Berry in this draft. And I would also hate to see us trade up at all and forfeit that 2nd rounder (unless something could be worked out for an expendable player, ie. Clemens). I also agree that the secondary has already been addressed, at least to the point that it shouldn’t be a concern on the first day of the draft. In the event of one of Tanny’s famous shake-ups however, and we moved up to #19, there would be little doubt at all that the pick is Graham or Kindle; whoever we have rated higher.
by nationalist88 on Apr 17, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
false.
The Jets have better personal and similar picks this year than last year when they traded up to the 5th pick. You guys forget Scott Piolli runs the show in KC now, so don’t be surprised if he trades down to get more picks as the he did with the Patriots.
A lot of teams don’t want to pay DTs, OT or a FS top five or even top ten money. The Jets can and should pay Eric Berry that money. The Jets need a playmaker and he’s the guy. His INT #s were down last yr bc Kiffin played him in needing him involved in more players, as opposed to his more comfortable “center field” position the previous two years. Rex would love a new version of Ed Reed.
Last year we were moving up from 17 to 5, this year we would have to move from 29 to 5, so it’s going to take more than last year, and in a draft this deep and with the lack of depth we have. Making a jump like that would be ridiculous. Not to mention we have 4-5 players who are going to be looking for big contracts soon, including Revis and Mangold who I imagine will command some of the biggest, if not the biggest contracts at their respective positions. Berry is good in theory if you completely ignore every other component that would have to fall in line to make this a valuable pick.
Three reasons why it won’t happen:
1) This is one of the deepest drafts since 83, and the teams that hold the most picks have a great chance to come out with supreme talent
2) The Jets simply don’t have what it takes to get up from 29 to 6 which is what they would have to do to get Berry, Not enough picks and not enough depth. It’s a whole other ballgame moving from #17 and #29.
3) The Jets can’t afford to hand out top 5/top 10 money for the 3rd year in a row while they have numerous players who are going to want to get paid
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Then the Jets trade future picks. I think you’re exaggerating the jump from 17-29 in such a “deep draft.” Not to mention some teams value quality not quantity. Several top teams are rumored to try and trade down to avoid making their picks the highest paid player at their respective positions before playing an NFL snap. Seattle could use Clemens and/or Clowney.
One HUGE factor is being forgotten, the greatness of an uncapped year. If the Jets have the money, spend it now. Get while the gettin is good. Now would be the time to sign Revis/Mangold/etc. to long term deals bc I like to believe the NFL will grandfather deals/contracts over the cap if/when it’s reinstated.
The implications of this uncapped year are hard to determine because they’ve made no headway at all sorting out the parameters for a new agreement. So no one knows how this will play out. But when was the last time you saw a competitive football team mortgage their draft to get one player? And we’re not even talking franchise QB, this is a safety for crying out loud. I’m sure Rex would love to have him, every coach would, but is it worth the price?
Like David’s pointing out, this is a really deep draft, so it’s not as if there are 7 or 8 highly rated prospects and a bunch of nobodys on the board, ala 2008. You said yourself, a lot of teams are looking to trade down, and that’s exactly why. The dropoff in talent from the top rated players to the later projections is not as significant as it usually is. That means the value is in # of picks more than an individual player.
One last thing to consider is no matter how much you may believe a certain prospect is a “cant-miss”, or destined to be a ten-year fixture, none of these guys have played a down in the NFL. And if you make a mistake, you might wind up drafting a college sack machine in the top ten, who has more tackles for a loss in school than tackles period in the NFL.
by nationalist88 on Apr 18, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Brodney Pool will flourish in our system, like he has been saying, before being put on the IR this year which he didn’t want to go on, he only missed one game doe to a concussion, and that was years ago. Blown completely out of proportion IMO. People will be pleasantly surprised by Pool.
I liked the signing, but I think he’s a bigger risk than that. I mean he may not have wanted to go on IR, but the team thought he needed to. Also he may not have missed games in the past, but the concussions were real and make him more susceptible to another in the future.
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Apparently the concussions were not real, one years ago that made him miss one game, and then the one this year. So if he doesn’t have another one for another 3 years then that;s fine. Still think people are completely over-blowing it like as soon as he is tapped he will crumble into a 100 pieces. Rex seemed to think it was a risk worth taking.
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keep the first round pick
dont know who we’ll get in the first… but in the 2nd well grab owosu ansah to fill the safety spot u heard it here first
let's start building
I think we keep our picks and start building. With such a deep draft I totally agree we keep our picks and start building. With good picks who can learn from our veterans and one day take over the positions and we have a team that will contend for years to come. Age catches up quick in the NFL and teams that are not ready for it become weak.
stay put and add depth
Whether it’s Mike T’s tendency or habit, I think it would be foolish to trade up unless you’re getting someone like Berry. The Jets have pretty much plugged up all their holes and what they need as a team is depth. It would be foolish to throw a bunch of picks away to move up in what is considered the deepest draft ever when what we need is depth. Why not just draft/acquire as many draft picks as possible and groom our future starters under Rex’s system?
There’s a lot talent up front but it seems incredibly thin after that, so why not use this year to address that?
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