Brandon Marshall: Pursue or No?
by John B on Feb 22, 2010 8:46 PM EST
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PrintI think this has a chance be the most controversial debate of this series. He's the total package as a receiver, strong, athletic, fast, and tall. He's electrifying with the ball in his hands. I still can't get over the game winning touchdown catch he had against Dallas this season. I was blown away. He is only 25 years old and has 3 straight 1,000 yard, 100 catch seasons. He set a career high in touchdowns this year with 10 despite a downgrade at his quarterback position. He set an NFL record with a 21 reception game against the Colts.
There are also reasons his team isn't in a rush to resign him. He's been arrested 4 times in 4 years in the league. He's caused problems in the locker room and got himself benched for the biggest game this year in 2009 for being late to a physical therapy session.
Things will likely get complicated if the Jets try to pursue Marshall. He's a restricted free agent. Despite the baggage, Denver would be foolish to give him anything other than the highest tender, first and third round picks. The Jets currently do not have a third round pick. It goes to Cleveland for Braylon Edwards. I've been reading up the past few days trying to make sense of the NFL rules. My understanding is the Jets could not tender Marshall an offer without obtaining a new third round pick either of their own slot or one before. At the 29th pick of the round, that wouldn't be too hard. They would trade out of the second round with some team and could grab a later pick.
The issue is whether Marshall is worth that price. Getting him would probably leave the team without a pick in the first three rounds of this deep Draft. The thought of surrounding the ground and pound attack with weapons like Braylon Edwards and Marshall on the outside, Jerricho Cotchery in the slot, Dustin Keller at tight end, and Leon Washington out of the backfield is sure tempting. I actually think you could justify it. Add a passing attack like that to the best run game and defense in the league, and you have one heck of a team if Mark Sanchez is ready to elevate his game.
The Jets could also get a first and third round pick by letting Edwards walk and signing Marshall. I don't love this idea. For all of his baggage, Braylon was a great fit in the locker room and is less of a risk. You'd also have to find a team to give up a first and third to take a chance on him.
Thinking it through, this is a tougher call than I thought it would be. I'm inclined to say pass. Marshall's too much of a risk to give a monster contract. Guys who want to find trouble can usually find it in New York. He seems like a potential ticking timebomb between the nightlife and the New York media. The Jets would also lose the chance to add two quality players at better value.
I vote don't pursue.
How do you vote?
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Don't pursue
The last thing the Jets need is a guy on the sideline or in the huddle bitching about not getting the ball enough. Sanchez is on his way to a promising career and becoming a great leader for the team. The Jets don’t need a guy like Marshall screwing that up. Edwards can be a great receiver and he seems to know his place on the team.
1st and 3rd rd. picks?
To paraphrase Meatloaf:
I would do anything for Brandon Marshall, but I won’t do that.
http://www.jetskvetch.com
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No way
I’d like to avoid restricted free agents altogether let alone an expensive one (in many ways) that comes with baggage.
Pass.
What we should be asking ourselves today being that the Saints aren’t going to franchise him, Darren Sharper, pursue or no?
If Edwards gets signed
then go after him, but no we shouldn’t
Bonds... hit is high.... He hits it DEEEEEEEP..... OUTTA HERE BONDS STANDS ALONE- Duane Kuiper on 756
by Newcomb29(EDGE) on Feb 22, 2010 11:33 PM EST reply actions
Don't want to ruin the surprise...
But, Does the future have a “Owens: Pursue or No?” coming?
A one year contract might be an interesting move. Unless I missed something, he had a quiet season last year and at the very least didn’t stir up any trouble. He might be had for cheap too, and might make a good team with Edwards.
Obviously not a long term solution, but it might be worth a shot.
"Martin is psychical" - In reference to Matt Martin being called up to the Islanders.
He's a freak talent. The Jets should open doors to him.
I’ll continue my argument after classes. Sorry.
But I love this post, thank you so much! :D
It’s hard to avoid talent like that, he obviously isn’t in a good place in Denver with his friend getting murdered and all, obviously he has some demons. Would like Rex/Mike to sit down with him and have a talk before feeling comfortable moving for him. I wouldn’t give up a first and third with Edwards still here.
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I wouldn’t give up a 1st&3rd for him and I don’t think that Denver will be asking for that either, they know they can’t keep him after what happen this year. teams giving the highest tender will be doing so to player they don’t mind keeping if know one bites. Jetsbill I don’t remember ever hearing about Marshall bitching about not getting the ball, and I don’t think until this year he was much of a locker room problem until Josh McDaniels took over.
I say we go get him, even if it's for a 1st & 3rd
I don’t really know if there is a sure-fire impact defensive player we can grab at 29 that will fit the defense, and then whichever receiver we get in the 2nd round is a question mark as to how much they will be able to contribute right away. Shipley looks like a sure thing but you really just never ever know with receivers, plus the learning curve is steep anyhow.
Getting Brandon Marshall who at this point is pretty much the surest receiver we could hope to acquire right now would likely vault our offense into the upper echelon of NFL offenses. And we seem to be forgetting that while yes the defense obviously needs at least two more pieces, we still dominated every offense not QBed by Peyton Manning last year without those pieces. AND LIKE WHO KNOWS MAYBE GHOLSTON SUDDENLY BECOMES A BEAST!!!
AND LIKE WHO KNOWS MAYBE GHOLSTON SUDDENLY BECOMES A BEAST!!!
And then I become King of England!
"Martin is psychical" - In reference to Matt Martin being called up to the Islanders.
I'd prefer it if he stayed out of the AFCE.
2009 NY Phin PhansFantasy League Champion
2009 Best Regular Season Record in NYPPL.
2010 The Jim Mandich NewsFlash Award Winner.
Added a FanPost to keep this going. Let's see what people say. Not trying to spam.
Brandon Marshall is one of those players who any team would love to have, but might not want to take the risk. Take a risk. Braylon was in the midst of a trial…and found guilty. (I do love Braylon, don’t get me wrong.)
He looks like the best possible pickup for any team wanting a WR…(including the draft)
Brandon Marshall is three inches taller than Anquan Boldin, and his knack to go get the ball is impressive. Marshall wants the ball and is complained at for wanting it. Receivers are the only players who can really ask to get the ball more. Something like that was said by well, Jerry Rice…(not 100%, but I think it was him or Irvin, I definitely know it was a HOF)
QBs like to depend on Marshall and he does have his numbers.
Here is what I compiled to summarize Marshall’s last three seasons:
2009 – 101 receptions (Targeted 154) – 1,120 yards. 15 games! 10TDs
(Kyle Orton – 541 attempts. 28.5% Targeted. 336 completions)
2008 – 104 receptions (Targeted – 181) – 1,265 yards. 15 games! 6 TDs
(Jay Cutler – 616 attempts. 29.4% Targeted. 384 completions)
2007 – 102 receptions (Targeted – 170) – 1,325 yards. 16 games! 7 TDs
(Jay Cutler – 467 attempts. 36.4% Targeted. – 297 completions)
Boldin hasn’t topped 100 receptions since 2005. Brandon Marshall is four years younger than Boldin.
Thoughts about the Saints: One main reason the Saints Defense could handle Manning was because they were practicing against an all-star offense. Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams could find out his mistakes before Manning did in practice. The other was that so much pressure was taken off the defense knowing the Saints offense could easily stretch the field and score once again.
People say, you test players by saying would you want them to play against the team, Would you like to see Brandon Marshall in a Patriots uniform (Belicheat has changed Moss’ views until now, why not bring in Marshall and his issues), Dolphins uniform (they’re already making moves for Boldin, seems QB Henne wants someone more Marshall), or a Bills uniform (Fitzpatrick—hmm-he did have a stretch where he looked great with TO).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJDTdZ5eBDc (Week 12 vs. Giants)
"This would be a move to help us now and for years to come."
Don’t get me wrong I know different offenses, however QBs throw to receivers approximately the same amount of time, even if they are rookies or where they are in the system.
Don’t get me wrong, I love J-Co too, haha.
I love all the Jets and hate to see them go, but the value involved.
Jerricho Cotchery
2009 – 57 receptions (Targeted – 96) – 821 yards. 16 games! 3TDs
(Mark Sanchez – 364 attempts. 26.4% Targeted. 196 completions)
Brandon Marshall
2009 – 101 receptions (Targeted 154) – 1,120 yards. 15 games! 10TDs
(Kyle Orton – 541 attempts. 28.5% Targeted. 336 completions)
I’m saying…
If the Jets can get Brandon for J-Co and a 2nd, that sounds like something that Jets should immediately react, because it brings an immediate upgrade to the Jets receiving corps.
Your thoughts.
I would not trade Jerricho Cotchery away
Cotch is ridiculously underrated. He is probably the most underrated receiver in the league right now.
First of all, Cotch only played in 14 games (13, really, as he got injured early in the first Miami game). Now let’s consider their respective QBs’ overall numbers:
Sanchez: 196 completions on 364 attempts (53.8% comp pct), 2444 yards, 12 TDs
Orton: 336 completions on 541 attempts (62.1% comp pct), 3802 yards, 21 TDs
So let’s compute some rate stats:
Sanchez to Cotch: targeted on 26.4% of attempts, accounts for 29.1% of completions (difference of 2.7%) and 25% of TDs (note that these numbers don’t account for the fact that Cotch was gone for essentially 3 games)
Orton to Marshall: targeted on 28.5% of attempts, accounts for 30.1% of completions (difference of 1.6%) and 47.6% of TDs (same as above except 1 game except 3)
So if you combine catch rate with their respective QBs’ completion percentages and targets, Cotch empirically has slightly better hands. Marshall is obviously better at getting TDs (he’s taller and larger in general, makes for a good EZ target). But Cotch has a way better yards per completion number (14.4 to 11.1) AND yards per target number (8.6 to 7.3) than Marshall.
Also, I’m assuming you got those numbers from Football Outsiders… Cotchery has a higher DVOA than Marshall, 10.2% (27th ranked) to 2.4% (38th ranked). If you check out profootballfocus.com, they also have Cotch ranked higher than Marshall for last year.
I’m not saying that Cotchery is better than Marshall, but he definitely at least had the better season, believe it or not. Marshall is a supreme talent and he’d probably fare much better in our offense than in the Broncos’ offense, but Cotchery is just as valuable and possibly is a little more valuable. At this point I’d be more comfortable trading Braylon for him than Cotch.
Ideally, I’d like to have all three though ;)
Avoid like the plague unless we want him to punt
Look at the wide-outs we have to begin with,
Cotch- Highly underrated. Helmet catch in last years Pats game anyone???
Keller- Probowl talent. Good TEs are a young QBs best friend.
Washington- Will catch a ton of passes out of the backfield next season.
Edwards is 50/50 but still a great blocker in the running game (something Marshall dos’nt do) and with a lil bit of a reach in faith I expect him to help his case by not dropping passes that hit him in the grille next season. I dont see this as a worthwhile upgrade.
All three of these guys will be expected to catch more balls as Sanchez gets more comfortabe in his role as QB. Couple that with the fact that this was the #1 rushing team in attemps and yards and we wont even have the chance to throw to him.
But mabye Im reading this post wrong. Do we want him to be our PUNTER? If so I think this might be an upgrade. This will NEVER happen.
by colinyoung on Feb 24, 2010 3:56 PM EST reply actions
Hmm...
An argument I have though..
Is if all it takes is this year’s second and fourth. and next year’s fourth. Why not?
I consider Marshall… a future Hall of Famer.
three seasons.
three 100 reception seasons.
three 1000+ yards seasons.
two different qbs.
two different coaches.
most catches in a game (against the Colts who the Jets lost to, and if the Jets need Marshall to help out the offense against the Colts it needs to be done)
I do love Cotchery, but I do see the Jets offense opening and passing more to compete with the better passing teams. The Jets don’t trade and draft a number 5 overall QB so he can handoff the ball… I think. lol
Hall of fame for sure... but not here.
Agreed. I can really see Marshall putting up HOF #s for sure. And without a doubt he is a guy that could use a fresh start with a new team. Personally I think its gonna cost more to get him. But my reasons for saying “avoid” are many.
1. Young QBs tend to stick with a limited and low risk game plan. With Washington back next season, Sanchez will almost always use him as an outlet option on most passing plays. And having him as a saftey net will quicken his check downs and really limit the amount of balls thrown down the field and over the middle. Making Marshall the “second” option in Sanchez’ mind. Were talkin alot of money and picks to put on a Wideout while were still bringing along a young QB.
2. Marshall loves the slant but its the highest risk route on the passing tree. A color RED play in Rex’s dumbed down passing options used for Sanchez. Lets not forget were not yet dealing with a vet QB who sees the whole field. Sanchez has yet to prove that he can even handle running an effective offense all season. He’s PICK PRONE.
3. The Jets are a running team. Marshall would never have another 100 rec year again if he came here. Can he handle that? Despite his amazing talent he would have to accept a reduced roll and take a back seat to a world class running game that Ryan will be reluctant to get away from, given this seasons dominating performance.
4. Marshall is a player who has shown the tendancy to be a cancer, at least to himself and possibly to his team. When things don’t go well for him, he shuts down. We were LUCKY to see Edwards put that BS behind him because he got to go to a winning team. Will we see the same patience from Marshall when dealing with a second year QB who will undoubtably have more a repore with his other options?
For me this all boils down to one thing. The money and picks could be better used to improve the team in other places. To beat the best teams in the NFL you have to find a way to beat their QBs (Manning, Breeze, Brady, ect). As good as the defense was they still got picked apart by Manning in the end, and it cost us the Super Bowl. Two problems were exposed in that game… The lack of a4 man pass rush and an exceptional corner to play with Revis. And thats were I think this team will end up blowing their wad with the Draft and Free Agents.
As much as I love what Marshall can do I just dont think its the right time to sign a guy like him. If we were an established passing team, and he was the last piece to the puzzle, I say go for it. But thats not the case.
by colinyoung on Feb 24, 2010 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
We’ll continue the “Debate” on the other page. :)
-Check out the Debates-
by Max Strauss on Feb 25, 2010 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
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