Why the Huge need for a WR?
by Ryan Alfieri on Feb 21, 2010 3:26 PM EST
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PrintIn a lot of mocks and opinions I have seen, there is a genreal consensus that the Jets need another wideout, and badly. I realize its always nice to have a ton of playmakers on offense, but I can't seem to understand why everyone thinks we need a WR so badly.
Let's take a look at what we got so far. Braylon Edwards, in my opinion, is a "true #1" wideout. Yeah, he dropped some passes. But take a look at what he brought to the offense. The running game exploded after he was brought in. Hes a big red zone target, stretches the field, and a great run blocker, which is something a lot of WR's don't bother with. Don't forget, this is the same Braylon Edwards that had that monster season in 07.
Jericho is the ideal #1 or 2 reciever, if you know what I mean. He has the talent to be that #1 guy, and before Braylon came in, he was Sanchez's go-to-guy. Hes a fantastic route runner and the most sure handed player on the team. I don't think he had a single drop all season. So, in my opinion, the Jets have 2 "#1's" starting at wideout, and one of the better tandems in the league.
Concerning the rest of the group, Keller is basically a WR in a TE body, who is rapidly improving his blocking skill. Clowney was inconsistient, but he made a couple of plays here and there. He is still young and raw and I think we should keep him in case he begins to really improve. Brad Smith isn't quite the WR everyone thought he might be, but his additions in the Wildcat were huge. Don't forget, Leon can line up in the slot from time to time and can catch out of the backfield, and Danny Woodhead is developing into a WR.
With all of this, I really don't see a pressing need to take a Golden Tate or a Jordan Shipley on day 1 in the draft. I'm not going to get into who we should draft instead in this post, but consider this:
Every year, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees light it up. You know as long as these guys are around these offensive-minded teams are going to score serious points every year. As long as you have some certain players in place, continuity is relatively easy on offense.
Take a look at this year's Steelers. There defense was decent, but not one of the all time great's like last year's was. Same with the Ravens. Yeah, they had injuries. But Anthony Gonzalez was out for the year in Week 1, and it didn't hurt the Colts.
Point is, it is extreamly difficult to maintain having a great defense year in and year out. Thats just another reason why I don't agree with drafting skill players, like WR's and RB's high (exept for QB's). So, if we should draft a WR, I don;t think we should do it before round 3 or so. The value just is not there, no slot reciever is worth maintaining or improving on a #1 ranked defense. Having this great defense has given the Jets a mentality they have never had before, tough and hard-nosed, and without it, they never make it to the AFC championship game.
What do you think, is WR really that big of a need?
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i dont think we need to invest a lot in a WR but we definitely need a slot receiver next year. i dont like using our 1st round pick on Golden Tate or Damian Williams but i would like to select Jordan Shipley in the 2nd round if he happens to fall to us. i think all we need is a cheap yet reliable option like Torry Holt or Bobby Wade. we definitely cant go into next season with David Clowney as our 3rd best WR and we cant expect Danny Woodhead to transform into Wes Welker during the offseason.
I agree joey
an experienced but not yet done WR as #3 would be fine. I said it once before, but Braylon’s drops weren’t nearly as noticeable after his legal issues in Cleveland were settled. I think that personal pressure showed in his game.
Go Jets
Go Devils
Comparing the loss of Polamolu and Gonzalez is ridiculous; and it takes away from what could be a good point. But I don’t agree with your premise. I think that having a good slot guy can make a big difference in an offense (e.g. Welker, Chrebet). I think that Shipley can be a very good slot guy. I am not for drafting a 3rd WR, but I am for drafting Shipley.
That said, I do believe that getting an edge rusher is the biggest need for this team. A guy that can consistently get pressure and draw double-teams will allow us to wreak havoc with four or five rushers, freeing up Pace on the other side and allowing Jenkins to collapse the middle. This would let us keep our LBs and Safeties in coverage. It is key for us to be able to generate pressure against elite QBs without selling out on the blitz.
im not comparing polomalu to gonzalez, im just saying how difficult it is to replace defensive players than it is offensive players.
by Ryan Alfieri on Feb 21, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
But Troy is the main cog in the Steelers defensive wheel.
His going down is a huge set-back. Manning going down for the Colts is the appropriate parallel, not gonzalez. How good would the Colts be without Manning?
i think that most of our desires to get a really good slot receiver is based on the fact that we’ve got burned a few times this year by the good ones. it would be awesome if we could get a welker or a garcon/collie, but i would agree with crackback regarding our need for someone that can consistently draw pressure and get to the qb on his own. a cb to cover those shifty slot receivers would be the other route i’d prefer to go otherwise. we either have to put pressure on the other team without having to blitz or be able to cover and that’s where our hugest weakness lies.
I agree
There is also Leon from the backfield. I honestly dont see why Schottenheimer doesn’t use Leon on the slot more often. He has run some pretty good routes.
Also we can use Edwards like the Pats have been using moss, as a decoy for Welker.
We can use Leon, Brad Smith and Keller on a slot rotation with Edwards and Jerricho running deep posts.
The Jets did a pretty good job in ball control, what we need is to be able to derail QBs like Manning with better coverage. Since Manning is great at picking blitzes is in the coverage that he beat us and that is where I think we need to focus.
Kyle Wilson if he falls to us. Or trade for one or more DBs. Cromartie is looking good right now despite all the issues.
Jets green since 1997
I disagree on all points. Leon (if back at full strength, big “if” IMO) is best used out of the backfield. And Smith is not a good receiver.
The key to beating Manning is not coverage. He will find a way to beat your coverage eventually. The key to beating Manning (or any great offense) is to pressure him and to control the clock. Pass rusher and possession receiver are the 2 key needs to be filled.
I still believe we should go after a corner
Ill be honest, I don’t want to be a 4 man rush, vanillia cover 2 defense. The blitzing gives the Jets a unique identity. Players love the scheme because everyone gets their chance to take their shots. Linebackers dont want to sit in a cover 2 all the time, they want to blitz. Getting a corner would obviously help this scheme even more.
that’s true, getting a corner would help the scheme, but i doubt our defense will ever become just a vanilla defense, not with rex at the helm. grabbing a pass rusher will boost the scheme also because that strengthens our blitz (and pass rushing in general) while also eliminating the absolute necessity of blitzing to apply pressure.
Nobody is advocating a change of scheme. The point I was trying to make is that if you sell out blitzing elite QBs, it doesnt matter who’s in coverage bc they will find a way to beat you.
If you have a great pure pass rusher, you can blitz more effectively and still be able to apply pressure if they pick it up. And you don’t have to bring a safety and a backer every time and leave your corners one-on-one. You can blitz but still leave some help or take away certain spots that the QB/WR can opt to.
Or, with a guy like Hughes, we can show a 4-3 look on 3rd and long: have Hughes and Jenkins to one side and blitz that side as well. It would be very tough to block those guys one-on-one while QB has to take a deep drop and wait for his WRs to get down field.
we have to have a good mixture of coverage and pressure. that’s why my 1/2 for needs this offseason are a pass rusher and another CB. i fully expect the passing offense to improve on its own with a full season in and another offseason to grow (and hopefully a fully healthy leon and greene), so i wouldnt put receiver as a top option. however, i do agree with the logic of picking the best player available at our turn in the draft (assuming he meets a semi-need since we do not have one standout incredibly pressing need).
Let's be realistic - what we have isn't enough
Look at all the top offense teams: Colts, Saints, Packers, Cardinals, Steelers, Vikings, even to some extent the Patriots, Chargers – all of them had 3 very solid WR’s, plus usually a rather good TE and a solid backfield receiver.
The Jets don’t have any 1000-yard receivers at the moment. Cotchery is solid, Edwards has shown flashes of brilliance, and Keller is solid, but Leon is going to be recovering from injury so who knows how effective he will be in fact.
Clowney is fast but has not contributed much. Woodhead is a fan favorite but I’m not convinced he’s a #3 wideout on par with the third options of the teams I mentioned above. Brad Smith actually works better as an RB than a WR. Who’s left after that?
It’s not good enough to have a set of solid starters – if you don’t have a top-notch player, it’s better to have a deep set of good players. What if one or two of our starters are injured? That was the lesson of the end of the Colts game, that if the Colts had had to rely on their backups they would have gotten nowhere.
Our defense won’t always be #1 if we don’t manage to upgrade it, and although at the end of the season our offense was starting to come together, it could use some upgrades as well. Success on offense requires multiple options. That’s why the Ravens couldn’t do anything against the Colts.
Maybe Braylon or Jerricho will have a breakout season and end up with 70+ catches, 1000+ yards, but since until that happens we can’t assume it will, and since there is always the risk of injury (or of one of them being blanketed and a receiver with a different style being more successful in a given game) we need a good supporting cast as well.
Ill list reasons you are wrong
1. You talk about those top teams having great talent at reciever. Look at those QB’s on the teams you listed. Youve got Manning, Brees, Warner, Rodgers, Favre,Brady, Rothlisberger, Rivers. Has ANYONE every considered that a reason these recievers are so good has a LITTLE to do with the QB’s throwing to them? Do you think that Sidney Rice just so happened to become a Pro Bowl reciever while Favre came in, like that was some kind of coincidence? Wonder how Wes Welker got cut from Miami and became an elite WR with Brady? Another coincidence? How much easier is it to catch passes from Drew Brees and the offensive mind of Sea Payton than it is to catch passes from a rookie QB on a team that runs 60% of the time? Stick Collie and Garcon on the Raiders. Put Louis Murphy on the Colts. See what happens. This is so overlooked it drives me crazy.
2. Want to know why the Jets don’t have a 1,000 yard reciever? Cause Sanchez throws the ball MAX 20-25 times a game. Impossible to put up great numbers in that kind of offense.
3. We don’t have a top-notch player? Braylon Edwards is top-notch talent. Overlook the drops and look at the seperation he gets.
4. Baltimore’s recieving core is among the worst in the NFL. You can’t even compare.
5. I dont know about you, but having the best D is awesome, Id rather be the tough-nosed defensive team than some pretty offensive show any day of the week.
6. If you want to draft a reciever, fine, just dont do it on day 1. wait till round 4 or 5. NO slot reciever is worth anything more. Its like drafting a nickel corner in the 1st round. its just dumb.
Yes. Part of the equation is having a good QB. But it seems like your basing much of what you say on Sanchez making no progress. If sanchez improves he throw the ball more and the offense will be balanced.
Theres no rule that says that if you have a hard-nosed defense, that you can’t have a pretty offense.
Wes Welker and Wayne Chrebet were both worth first round picks. So is Shipley. I’d prefer Hughes with the first pick. But I also prefer Shipley to getting a corner in the first; especially since there seems to be a plethora of talent at corner this year and we could probably get a good one in the second.
answering your points
1. We drafted Sánchez at no. 5, which means we expected that over time he would be as good as the guys you mentioned. It’s sort of a circular argument – a good QB and good receivers complement each other.
2. As Sánchez improves he will pass more. Anyway, to have 1000 receiving yards you only need 63 per game on average. Say Sánchez throws 20-25 passes per game (should be a bit more next year) – he should complete 15-17 of them. A top receiver should be able to get 4 or 5 catches for 63 yards out of that.
3. Edwards improved the offense from when he arrived, but that just means he was better than Chansi Stuckey. I’m looking forward to seeing what kind of numbers he will put up over a full season. Hope he doesn’t get hurt.
4. Our corps would be just as bad if Cotchery or Edwards got hurt.
5. Yes, having the best D is awesome, but we will be able to keep it the best only if we keep on upgrading it with new players. Otherwise it will eventually decline. Nobody can play at their peak over their entire career. Success in the NFL requires constant upgrades on both sides of the ball.
6. I wouldn’t take a receiver in the first round, but I would consider it in the second. The Patriots have Moss and Welker but they drafted Edelman. You never know what can happen – Jerricho or Braylon might get hurt, or decide he wants more money all of a sudden, or decline suddenly. It can happen to players – look at Arnaz Battle. You need insurance. You need someone ready to fill in. You need variety and alternative options. What’s wrong with having situational players?
Julian Edleman was a 7th round pick. Im perfectly fine with taking whoever you want in the 7th round lol
You keep talking about what happens if someone gets hurt. I can’t name a single team that has a backup starting recieving core in case someone gets hurt. Those are just things you have to deal with, like when Jenkins went down. It’s not like our backups are terrible, they’re decent.
Keeping an offense in good shape is a lot easier than hanging onto a great defense, as I stated in my post above.
I will say it again. NO slot reciever or #3 reciever is worth ANYTHING more than a 3rd-4th round pick. NOONE. Wes Welker is a #2 reciever, not a “slot only” reciver (even though he does a lot of his work in the slot), he is on the field for most, if not all offensive plays.
a 17/25 or 15/20 is about 70% completion percentage. That is HALL OF FAME kind of accuracy (Drew Brees had about this accuracy all season, broke the record). Sanchez will complete about 12 passes a game (last year) and divide up 12 balls between Cotchery, Braylon, Keller, TJ, Washington when he was around, and any other of our recievers out there. Even if you just divide those 12 balls between just cotchery and Edwards and give them 6 catches a game, they still don’t get 100. EVEN if you give them an average of 10 yards/catch, they STILL don’t have 1000 yards.
by Ryan Alfieri on Feb 24, 2010 9:17 AM EST up reply actions
1. Shipley is NOT, I repeat, NOT worth a first round pick.
2. Im not saying Sanchez won’t get better. He will. And as he gets better, our recievers put up better production. When that happens, all of a sudden we dont “need” a reciever anymore.
3. I meantioned at the end of my post how difficult it is to maintain a great defense to an offense. Spend the high pick on a corner, or pass rusher, but thats a different debate. Yeah, theres depth at corner and D-linemen in this draft, but do you want “a” corner or the RIGHT corner? You spend the high pick on the corner you WANT instead of settling for a corner thats left youre selling yourself short. Maybe Kyle Wilson or whoever is out there for us in the 1st round turns into a pro-bowler? Picking the players you like the best increase your chances of having a sucessful draft.
Please..
KEEP IT COMING!!! njdevil you are on a roll. +800
...you're a jet all the way.
by OnceYoureAJet on Feb 23, 2010 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
Although theres a lot of depth at corner, aside from Haden, none is seen as a sure-shot. You made a good point about findingthe right guy for our team. Finding the right guy is what its all about. We could use a good slot guy. A really good one will be available when we pick. We shouldnt exclude Shipley from our first round pick bc his best fit is at slot receiver and the Drafter’s Handbook states that you just don’t pick slot receivers in the first round.
He would do work on our team with the strong presence of our running game, Braylon stretching the field, having to honor Keller and J-Co. Shipley could be every bit as good, if not better than, Welker.
Well, theres no saying Shipley won’t be a bust either. Who knows. Maybe he gets hurt, or simply can’t transition well into a pro-level offense.
When I say Shipley is not 1st round talent, I don’t mean it is because he is not talented. I mean when you pick a Slot reciever in the 1st round, you have to pay him like a 1st round player. If you start paying guys like that a lot of money (cough Golhston cough) it really beings to cripple your team.
Heres why: Even though theres not cap this year and who knows when its coming back, the general manager’s job is to save the Owner $$$$. Winning is a bonus. Sorry, but thats how it works. (Winning generates revenue, so thats why owners dont just tell GM’s to sign players at the lowest price possible).
So teams have a budget either way. When you sign guys like slot recievers or nickel-corners or special teamers big contracts, it will make you overpay for production. This kills a franchise. Spending all of this money on these guys allows less money to be spent on more “important” positions. Forget Brandon Marshall, you just spent all of your money on a slot reciever, who is going to see about 25% of the offensive playing time. Then guys like Braylon and Cotchery want to be paid more because their slot recievers are making a ton of money. Its a snowball affect no team wants to be a part of.
Look at Nate Clements on the 49ers. Hes making about 7 mil a year, and thats Shutdown-Corner money. Hes an avergage corner at best. Now San Fran is stuck with this huge contract that they can get rid of because of all the guaranteed money involved. So they can’t draft or sign a better corner, because thats too much money alloted in one position. You are holding you team back from becoming better.
Same with Gohlston. You release him, you are throwing millions out the window in guaranteed money, and if it was a capped year, there would be HUGE cap penalties. Even if there was no final 8 rule, signing a guy like Peppers has become impossible because Vernon’s contract does not even resemble his production.
And THATs why you can’t draft a slot reciever in the 1st round. Now, if you think Shipley is going to be a consistent 1000 yard, pro-bowl reciever, well, go for it. But, barring some miracle, he won’t. And I dont think any GM is going to bet the future of thier franchise that Jordan Shipley will be the next Randy MOss.
HUZZAH
..finally someone picks up on the money angle
...you're a jet all the way.
by OnceYoureAJet on Feb 24, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
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