Early 2010 First Round Mock Draft
I'm going to steal a bit of David's thunder. The following is how I see the first round of the Draft playing out. This isn't necessarily what I would do if I were these teams. It is what I think they will do.
1. St. Louis Rams: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Right now a lot of pundits have Ndamukong Suh going with this pick. It makes sense. Steve Spagnuolo helped turn the Giants into a champion behind a dominant defensive line. I think this thing is going to turn towards a quarterback as we get closer to the Draft. The Rams realize at this point that Marc Bulger is part of the problem. They've passed on Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez the past two years. Nothing can fire up a fan base like a new franchise quarterback. I think Clausen will overtake Sam Bradford as the top quarterback because of a lack of durability and experience in a pro style offense.
2. Detroit Lions: Ndomukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Detroit has a glaring need at defensive tackle. Their starters this year were Grady Jackson and Sammie Lee Hill. The Lions ranked 25th against the run. The two tackles combined for no sacks. Suh put himself on the map with his performance against Texas in the Big XII Championship Game, but I saw him play a lot. He was just as dominant all year.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
McCoy would be the best tackle in just about any other year. The Bucs are another team with a major weakness at the position, and their system puts a lot of pressure on defensive linemen to make plays. They need an impact player like McCoy has the potential to be.
4. Washington Redskins: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
I think Mike Shanahan will want to start over in Washington with his own quarterback. Dan Snyder will love the move because it will make a huge splash.
5. Kansas City Chiefs: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
The Chiefs could use help on the offensive line, but Berry's potential at safety is off the charts. Mike Brown and Jon McGraw comprise a poor starting safety tandem.
More after the jump.
6. Seattle Seahawks: Russell Okung, T, Oklahoma State
Seattle needs to replace Walter Jones at tackle.
7. Cleveland Browns: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
Mike Holmgren is a passing oriented guy. He can't be happy with the team's quarterback situation, but no quarterback left would justify a pick this high in this scenario. Last year the leading receiver on the roster had 36 catches and 624 yards. The second leading receiver had 34 catches and 220 yards.
8. Oakland Raiders: Usain Bolt, 100m/200m/4x100m, Jamaica
We all know Al Davis only cares about straight line speed so who better than the fastest man in the world? I know you're probably either laughing or rolling your eyes, but admit it. You could see this happening.
9. Buffalo Bills: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
This looks like a reach, but 3-4 players tend to go earlier than projected. Buffalo is shifting to a 3-4 defense without a guy to play the most important position, nose tackle. Williams is a prototypical two gap space eater.
10. Denver Broncos: Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
McClain is an intelligent and versatile linebacker who would fit perfectly in Denver's 3-4.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
For the record, I think this would be a terrible pick. Tebow is way too raw to go this high, but the Jaguars are struggling financially. They struggled filling their stadium this year. A local legend like Tebow could fill seats. I could see ownership taking control here and making a business decision. It's not as though David Garrard is a championship quarterback.
12. Miami Dolphins: Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas
The Dolphins will cut Joey Porter, which will leave a void at outside linebacker. They do have Cameron Wake, but it's not clear whether he's ready to contribute full time. Jason Taylor also isn't getting any younger. Kindle is an incredible athlete who unlike many prospects has experience playing as a hybrid end and outside linebacker. Alabama had no answer for him in the National Championship Game.
13. San Francisco 49ers: Trent Williams, T, Oklahoma
Everything I read about the Niners says offensive line is a high priority. Alex Smith showed signs he may yet develop into a quality quarterback. San Francisco seems to have found its left tackle in Joe Staley. Williams has the strength necessary to man the right side.
14. Seattle Seahawks: C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
The Seahawks have struggled running the ball since Shaun Alexander's MVP 2005 campaign. Julius Jones is an average back. Spiller is a game changer, a back with blazing speed and excellent pass catching skills. After the year Chris Johnson just had, a lot of teams would love to have a homerun hitter like Spiller.
15. New York Giants: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
I know you might think the secondary is the issue with the Giants, but they've always been a team that has looked to hide the secondary with a pass rush. A number of players on the defensive line underperformed last year. There are red flags with Dunlap, namely an underperforming year and a DUI arrest the week of the biggest game of the year. If not for that, he would be long gone by this point. This would give the Giants a guy athletic enough to play end and big enough to move to tackle. If he reaches his potential, he could become another Justin Tuck.
16. Tennessee Titans: Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Tennessee ranked 23rd against the pass. Haden and Cortland Finnegan would make one of the best tandems in the league.
17. San Francisco 49ers: Earl Thomas, S, Texas
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know Taylor Mays went to USC just like Niners legend Ronnie Lott. San Francisco does need help at the position, but they need a guy who can defend the pass and improve the pass defense. Mays is not a cover safety. Thomas is.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers: Anthony Davis, T, Rutgers
It's time for the Steelers to address their offensive line. They can't run it, and Ben Roethlisberger has taken too much of a pounding. Davis played tackle and guard at Rutgers. The Steelers could play him at either spot. He's good value here, powerful in the run game and nimble enough to excel at any line position except probably left tackle.
19. Atlanta Falcons: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
The Falcons are another team that could use a corner but couldn't find value with this pick. Instead, we'll add to the pass rush by adding a complete defensive end in Morgan. Jamaal Anderson hasn't turned into much of a pass rusher. Morgan will be in good shape playing across from John Abraham (at least when Abe is on the field).
20. Houston Texans: Taylor Mays, S, USC
I personally think this is too early for a team to take Mays, but his physical tools will be difficult for teams to ignore, particularly a team like Houston lacking secondary playmakers.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU
LaFell compares favorable to fellow LSU product Dwayne Bowe. Cincinnati's passing offense struggled in part due to the struggles of Laveranues Coles. LaFell is a physical wideout who would compliment Chad Johnson and Andre Caldwell well.
22. New England Patriots: Ricky Sapp, DE, Clemson
The Patriots could use a lot on defense. The secondary doesn't look great, but there is again no value to be found here. Sapp is the best 3-4 pass rushing prospect left.
23. Green Bay Packers: Bryan Buluga, T, Iowa
Green Bay's offensive line was responsible for a struggle out of the gates. Buluga is a mauler who would provide an immediate upgrade over Mark Tauscher at right tackle.
24. Philadelphia Eagles: Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Weatherspoon is an excellent weakside linebacker prospect, a spot the Eagles have a need. Philly's system demands versatile linebackers. Weatherspoon has excellent range, blitzes well, and plays good coverage.
25. Baltimore Ravens: Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame
The Ravens need to get Joe Flacco some weapons. When Derrick Mason is by far your most dangerous target in the passing game, it's a problem. Tate will either replace Mason if he retires or compliment him.
26. Arizona Cardinals: Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
This is assuming the Cardinals lose Karlos Dansby. My thinking is he will be too expensive for Arizona to franchise a third time. If they felt they could afford a long term deal, they would have done it already. Spikes would be a perfect replacement, a guy who is good blitzing, against the run in traffic, and in coverage.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Bruce Campbell, T, Maryland
The Cowboys need to find a replacement for Flozell Adams sooner rather than later.
28. San Diego Chargers: Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech
LaDainian Tomlinson is likely gone, and his productive days were likely behind him anyway. San Diego's passing game will get more dangerous if there's a quality back to add the element of play action. Dwyer might be the most complete back in the Draft.
29. New York Jets: Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan
More than anything, I think the Jets need to add a pass rusher. The blitz will become that much more dangerous if they have a guy opposing offensive lines always have to keep an eye on. The coverage will improve if the Jets can get to opposing quarterbacks rushing four and can blitz less. Graham looks like he can be an impact player down the line and contribute right off the bat.
30. Minnesota Vikings: Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Whether Brett Favre returns or not, this position is a long term question mark for the Vikings. If Brad Childress thought Tavaris Jackson was a franchise quarterback, he never would have spent so much time courting Favre. McCoy has top notch intangibles, and his accuracy is a must for the West Coast offense. I really think McCoy is going to make some team very happy one day.
31. Indianapolis Colts: Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State
The Colts always seem to have a problem at tackle. A guy like Odrick seems like a good fit for their quick, gap shooting defensive front.
32. New Orleans Saints: Everson Griffen, DE, USC
The Super Bowl champions could use a pass rusher. Griffen is big enough to handle end full time and explosive enough that Gregg Williams can move him around.
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"A guy like Odrick seems like a good fit for their quick, gap shooting defensive front."
how is this guy not perfect to play across from ellis?
He wouldn’t be bad, but you only get one first round pick.
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There's a PSU connection with Indy as well
Caldwell was an assistant and PSU for a while several years back, so if don’t take him, I really don’t think he’s slipping past Caldwell at 31. He would know better than most what kind of players JoePa puts out (in terms of character, usually (let’s just ignore Larry Johnson ever happened)).
We are gonna shock them with 5,000 mega watts of raw ROO POWER.
Very good point. Forgot about that, but that could indicate he’s not falling past 31.
I guess I didn’t explain Graham over Odrick very well. While the line is old, it is still performing at a high level, and the depth is good. I think for at least another year we’re in good shape.
I don’t think the Jets should target a position, but if value is equal, I think an edge rusher is a bigger upgrade than a lineman.
With that said, I wouldn’t be upset with Odrick.
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Am I the only one who thinks the worst possible thing St Louis can do is draft Clausen at 1? Unless they negotiate the lowest compensation for a #1 overall pick before the draft starts it just doesn’t make any sense. St Louis is losing money first and foremost and chances are if the Rams went DT, the most money he would see is from the Bills at #9 losing out on MILLIONS!! If the Rams truly want Clausen which I hope they don’t I think they need to look to try and get a player, or a second/third round pick from the Bucs to swap firsts. You know Tampa has to want one of those tackles and by moving down to three the Rams save more money and probably pick up another player.
I see what you’re saying, but part of the reason they’re losing so much money is how terrible they’ve been. This is the third straight year they’re picking in the top two.
I think they’ll view it as an investment. Taking a QB will give the fanbase hope, which will energize it. Also finding a franchise quarterback is the quickest way to improve.
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Don't agree with your last sentence
Also finding a franchise quarterback is the quickest way to improve.
Did the Lions and Buccaneers improve? Or is it maybe too soon for them?
As for the Bengals having done the same thing, Palmer is so inconsistent that I sometimes feel they have improved in spite of him rather than because of him.
Would you agree with me though that it could be a mistake to pick him at #1? He is clearly not the best available, will be expensive and there would be a heck of a lot of teams who would trade a lot to move up to take Suh. Not to mention there are not many teams interested in Clausen for another 8 picks. I think its a no brainer that Clausen should not be the first player chosen. I know you aren’t showing trades because they are near impossible to predict but I say #1 in this years draft is a DT.
At this time a year ago, I saw a lot of people have Sanchez falling into the 20’s. Quarterbacks tend to rise near Draft day. Given the recent success of teams with first round quarterbacks, I think that trend continues. Is Clausen better at his position than Suh or Berry are? Probably not, but his position is the most important on the field.
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Clausen is getting a lot of heat from fans as well, not sure why people are not high on him, he has a good arm, good recognition, nice zip on passes, can throw pretty much every ball, can throw on the run and was a leader on the ND team in 2009. Not saying he should definitely be number one, but trade or not, St Louis would be wise to select a guy with the potential that Clausen has in a league that is becoming pass orientated.
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I couldn’t tell you how Clausen project. As was mentioned before if he immediately starts in St. Louis it could be a very bad situation. But #2 Detroit is taking in all likelihoods a DT and aren’t interested in moving down. #3 TB will take a DT if available, or possibly Barry if Suh and McCoy are the 1,2. I too doubt they will move down because they need an impact player. #4 Washington will probably go Okung, or Bradford/Clausen but most I"ve read said Bradford is more a Shanahan guy. Not sure if its true or not. Outside of that KC probably won’t go QB, Seattle probably won’t at 6, Cleveland goes defense at 7, Oakland is a huge wildcard but it doesnt sound like Al Davis goes QB. So Buffalo will take a close look at QB and I think they have too many holes to try and trade up to guarantee they land one of them. So my thought here is if Clausen is who they target, they should field offers from the teams picking 3-8. That way they can address many of their other glaring needs and potentially save some money too.
BTW John, nice draft on the whole, a lot better than McShay’s catastrophe.
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So...I'm trying to get this guy's name out here for a late pick.
RAS-I DOWLING. CB. UVA.
I’ve seen you throw his name out. What is your scouting report on him? Why should the Jets look at him and what role will he play? What are his strengths?
I have seen you mention him before, and I did post this after you last posted about this(at least I think it was you) he is returning to school in 2010, he is not in the 2010 draft, he will be in the 2011 draft.
ornerback Ras-I Dowling said that the opportunity to graduate and refine specific skills were key to his decision to return for his senior season.
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Good draft.
But I just don’t see the Giants passing on Haden for a DE.
I really debated that one for a long time. I went with Dunlap because they’ve tended to believe a pass rush is more important than secondary play when it comes to pass defense.
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Tebow-to Jville
not happen:
Reasons:
1. Gene Smith (the one who will pick-not like him; he said he is a 3rd rounder prospect at best…)
2. Ticket sales are going extremly good compered to last year!
3. The need picks brought the Jaguars to the 2008 situation; they refused to select BAP. They did in 2009- and it was one of the key to the relatively good performance…
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Feb 14, 2010 2:35 PM EST reply actions
You could be right
Time will tell.
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BCC would explode if we pick Timmy in the 1st round
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
by Zoltan from Budapest on Feb 14, 2010 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
There is absolutely NO way
Brandon Graham is dropping to you guys in the first round after his breakout performance in the Senior Bowl.
I believe he’ll be the next Dwight Freeney, and I’m sure alot of teams picking higher will see the potential too. He’s not getting past Miami, New England, or Philadelphia.
Not necessarily
True the secret is out on Graham, but you can never predicty with any certainty how teams will evaluate and rank prospects and Miami, NE, and Phili could value guys like Kindle (who I wouldnt mind seeing a scouting report on… wink wink, nudge nudge David :p) Sapp and Witherspoon over Graham. I’m not saying its likely, just making a case for Graham dropping to 29. I’ll be happy with both Graham or Wilson!
by psychobabble on Feb 14, 2010 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
Will definitely get on that, got a free day today, so can expect that at some point late tonight.
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David, your awesome! I know I haven’t been communicating with you long on any forum, but you’re quickly becoming one of my favorite internet people!
by psychobabble on Feb 15, 2010 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Nice job John, though,
I still think if Kyle Wilson is there then he is our guy at 29. I would certainly be okay with Graham also.
"Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring; besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. It's more democratic."
- CRASH DAVIS

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