Has the League Really Caught Up to New York Jets Blitz Packages?
by John B on Dec 29, 2010 4:22 PM EST
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PrintOne popular theory about the Jets' struggles to generate a pass rush is that the league has caught up with the blitz packages the team runs. It sounds great on paper, but it doesn't really flow logically. Rex Ryan didn't just run this defense for one year in New York. He also ran it for four in Baltimore. Every year the unit was in the top five in the league. Are we really to believe that teams have cracked the code in the sixth year?
Let me give a further example of why this is difficult to believe. The Ravens still run largely the same defense as Ryan did when he left. If there was a schematic issue, the whole league would be caught up to them, right? Let me give you an example of why this isn't the case.
The Steelers are as familiar with the Baltimore/New York defense as any team. They played the Ravens twice and the Jets once this year. In the first meeting with Baltimore, they allowed either pressure, a hit, or a sack on 52.1% of their dropbacks. In the second meeting, they allowed it on 34.1% of dropbacks. Against the Jets, they allowed it on 19.1%. If it was all about scheme, there would not be this kind of disparity.
The numbers do not tell the whole story either. Having watched these games, most of the pressure the Jets generated was because the coverage held and forced Ben Roethlisberger to hold the ball longer than usual. The Ravens got to Pittsburgh's quarterbacks quickly.
I see two big issues with the Jets. The first is execution. The big pass rushers, Calvin Pace and Jason Taylor, consistently lose their assignments on passing plays. They aren't alone, though. Defensive backs are taking bad and tentative routes to the quarterback on blitzes. It's frustrating to see things so anemic. Anecdotally, the calls seem more predictable than they were a year ago. Last season we saw things like Kris Jenkins walking around before the snap. I saw more disguise. I remember plays where the Jets would overload the left side then drop those guys and blitz a few guys to the right, which worked because the blocking was sliding left. These fronts look much more predictable. When the Jets overload left, you can bet they are coming from the left side. Is this because Mike Pettine has taken a more active role? I don't know, but I have to disagree with the popular sentiment that Rex Ryan should be hands off with the defense so he looks like more like the head coach of the whole team. Part of the reason the team was so successful was his hands on ways with the defense.
I think saying the league has caught up with the defense makes for an easy story line for writers, but reality is probably more complex.
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If we had the guys up front that Rex had in Baltimore, we’d have many more sacks and nobody would question the schemes.
Agreed completely.
A scheme is only as good as its players. The pass rushers on the Jets aren’t playing very well.
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The Ravens rank 26th in the NFL for sacks this year
if the Ravens are using the same blitz scheme as the Jets? Then a lot of teams are figuring it out. I agree players make a scheme better. The Jets are better sacking the QB than the Ravens are now
Just try to STOP US
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 29, 2010 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
There is no player that has to be double-teamed or can be expected to beat his blocker on a regular basis
by It may HAVE to Last a Lifetime on Dec 29, 2010 4:42 PM EST reply actions
Yeah but...
I noticed last week that when we rush 3 or 4, they blocked with 7 or 8.
by James Calvin on Dec 29, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly though...
how much has the personnel changed? Why are we seeing such differences?
Darrelle Revis once won a game of Connect Four in three moves.
Last two games Jets fans think the sky is falling on the Defense...
(And granted it could be a lot better)….
But few seem to notice that the Steelers and the Bears also struggled on pass rush and coverage. Both are elite defenses. IIRC, they didn’t get a lot of pressure or have any sacks against us. We got sacks on both teams, but there were a lot of plays where we gave them too much time.
Bad turf, and bad traction favor the offense. Makes it hard to pass rush, and cover in the secondary.
Agreed, we need to get some pass rushers next year, and some new schemes going into the playoffs.
Defense?
What defense….two words with what is wrong, BART SCOTT … does he even play on the team? Oh wait he is the guy I always see at the end of tackles running in at the last minute to deceive the TV viewer to think he is doing something. He is very very slow, always is getting man handled on blocks and never gets to the QB on a blitz. If we can cut him, Jason Taylor, Calvin “I get blocked every play” Pace, and retire Shaun Ellis plus bring in younger blood through the draft we should be better not only getting to the QB, but our secondary will thank us. Even a practice squad QB can complete a pass on our 4-5 man rush. Much of the blame comes with the secondary, but its actually the play of the D-line that is terrible, allowing the QB to look at 3,4,or 5 options.
Can't really blame any one player
Although you make a great point with naming them collectively. They were aging going into this season, and as the schedule took its toll they have seemed to slow down. I wasn’t a big Jason Taylor fan when the Jets signed him, and unfortunately I feel vindicated at this stage. Everyone remembers his safety, but he can;t stop the run or defend a pass play. His last strength is pass rushing, and he’s pretty much tanked. Even at that, have you noticed that they don’t seem to play all that well as a unit the last several games? And that’s as big a problem as anything else.
Of course, Jim Leonhard was vital to the blitz and his absence as almost another linebacker has exposed the Jets D a little bit more.
And as far as Rex being hands off with the D, that’s BS. If he continues to hands off, it’ll be a short trip to the playoffs. The teams that demonstrate weak Ds in the playoffs will watch most of them from their televisions at home.
JT has been stout against the run
Can we remember that this D is rated 4th in the NFL? Its not like they’re all THAT bad, just not as good as expected.
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by Ryan Alfieri on Dec 29, 2010 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
Bart Scott is having a Pro-Bowl caliber season…he is outplaying Harris in many respects
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Marty Brodeur - Stealing Rangers' lunch money since 1990
by Ryan Alfieri on Dec 29, 2010 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
Outside of Harris,all of the Jet linebackers are slow.Mix that with slow safeties and
it’s not hard to figure a way to move the football on offense against the Jets.Passes over the middle to anyone works.
by Putnan Prince on Dec 29, 2010 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
The blitzing schemes have become repetitive and as mentioned, those blitzing often take horrendous angles to the qb, allowing him to step up in the pocket, where the is little to no push from inside. Despite all the blitzing the Jets do, how often have you seen someone with a free rush to the qb’s blind side. Those kinds of opportunities are what the defensive schemes need to generate, big hits that force turnovers and can lead to the d putting 6 on the board. Also so mention has to be given to what the league has become, which is a bit of a joke in some regards. You can’t hit the quarterback high, can’t hit him low, can’t hit him too hard. This kind of bs from the league can’t be overlooked as to why no defense, not just the Jets, can dominate the way they could if allowed to actually treat the qb like another player on the field.
Really. How many times have you watched in real time
an overload blitz unfold. You see the push, then you see the secondary blitz, maybe you see the twist, but Jet blitzers are absorbed into a protection like so many planets into a black hole.
Also, if “the league has caught up to the Jets” is an easy myth, I suggest that “the Ravens run the same defense as the Jets” an equally easy myth. Until I hear someone who is intimately familiar with the present defense that the Ravens run, how it is called, where the blitzes are coming from (and the same for the Jets) tell me this, it sounds like it is nothing more than a “Rex Ryan worked there for a long time” guess theory.
I agree that we are not all that similar to the ravens. I don’t recall them using DBs anywhere near as much as we do to generate pressure on passing downs.
by Crackback on Dec 29, 2010 6:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Perhaps less need to?
With Suggs they’ve got great speed around the edge, with Ngata they’ve got both speed and power up the gut, and with Lewis they’ve got the savvy and experience to direct which to unleash. By comparison, the Jets have got slower, older players on the edge, and don’t have the same kind of disruptive power up the middle (then again, only the Lions have a guy who’s Ngata’s equal).
That’s not saying the Jets are bad; they just don’t have the inside disruption or the outside speed of the Ravens D. If Gholston had panned out, they might’ve had a Suggs clone, and if Jenkins hadn’t been hurt they might’ve had something approximating Ngata. But injuries and busts happen in the NFL, and it means the Jets are a little short at the moment.
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by Comedic.Sans on Dec 29, 2010 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
Hence, we are not that similar to the ravens.
by Crackback on Dec 29, 2010 8:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It’s relative. Do we call the exact same plays at the same ratio? No, but the playbook and fundamentals are similar. You could argue Tampa 2 teams don’t run the same system under the same rationale.
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Yes the playbook and fundementals may be similar, but the plays called and game plan principles are vastly different.
Its like the eagles and the vikings offenses. Both are west coast based, but both have vastly different foot prints. You will see way more double TEs and power runs for AP in minny than you’ll ever see under andy reid in philly.
by Crackback on Dec 29, 2010 9:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
in support of what you and I believe someone else has said, this is what Mangini had to say about the Raven’s blitz defense on the 12/23:
"Well, the Ravens’ defense has the ability to put pressure on anybody they face. And there’s a lot of different blitz looks, even when they’re not blitzing, dealing with [Terrell] Suggs or any of the interior guys in the way that they can push the pocket. It’s a problem; and it’s a problem for everybody that they face. And then the secondary… Ed Reed wasn’t there the first time we played them, and that’s a whole different component for a guy like Colt, because he is so dynamic in the passing game. There are a ton of challenges."
source here
The entire problem that the Ravens’ presents is the push up the middle. Though they do offer blitz exotics, it isn’t the focus of the defense’s strength. One can see that the Jets attempt to pose a different problem, one that is DB oriented.
by ________key on Dec 29, 2010 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
Yep
But that could be fixed entirely if the Jets got their hands on two or three ideal players. In other words, it’s probably not the scheme that’s broken, it’s just they’re short on players to fill it at this point in time.
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by Comedic.Sans on Dec 29, 2010 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
In support of Crackback's point about DBs, from Dec 6th
The Jets happen to be one of the most prolific teams in the NFL at blitzing defensive backs, particularly on third down. Last season on third down, the Jets sent defensive backs after the quarterback on 85 of 168 dropbacks, easily the highest percentage in the NFL (50.6).
This season, the Jets have been even more aggressive, sending defensive backs on 79 of 136 third-down dropbacks through the first 11 games (58.1). However, the predictability of secondary pressure is making it easier for offenses to anticipate the rush.
source here
by ________key on Dec 29, 2010 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Blitzing D-backs also gives a WR or TE a free release somewhere...
A pass-rush means squat if a good QB can diagnose it, spot where the hole will be, call his WR into the hole pre-snap, and then get rid of the ball quickly.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
Contributing Writer at PatsPulpit
by Comedic.Sans on Dec 29, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
Sure. The key is not onto identification, its the “quickly”. Rex will cover the release with a zone, but only for a very short time. Its all about if the blitz gets there. The defense simply isn’t not designed to defend for more than a short count (with the exception of Revis who has special skills).
Not getting pressure with the blitz just must freak Rex out. And he is such a stubborn man he still probably doesn’t believe it. I’m sure he thinks that its gotta work at the right time with the right call.
by ________key on Dec 29, 2010 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
I should have written “not only” instead of “not onto”
by ________key on Dec 29, 2010 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
That’s not saying the Jets are bad; they just don’t have the inside disruption or the outside speed of the Ravens D
This is the thing (and I think from afar I would agree that @Crackback is right), the design of this team is NOT to have power of the middle. It is designed to be DB centric (which is why we drafted Wilson when we could have drafted a pass rusher or a lineman). The Ryan approach (and the Mr. T approach) is to blind them with complexity and speed from the DBs, to open up lanes for a max blitz with numbers and surprise. Well, again from no study, it seems the league or at least some of the league – and I suspect that the Pats were prime in this – figured out that if you heavy protect and attack the short middle of the field (or as the Ravens did with stretching it on long downs), and clog up all the lanes, the Jets just don’t have the personnel (or the skill set) to cover the 3rd or 4th receiver option. Even if the blitz is called off, the Jets just don’t know how to effectively drop back in coverage in a zone. Without pressure the holes in the zone are just picked apart.
Now I’m just armchair reading, but Ryan seems to be caught between sending more and more blitzes from unexpected places (only so many of those) or dropping back in zones he doesn’t have the personnel to cover. He doesn’t know what to do other than just trying to call a better and better game, but the line is SO thin (as is shown on his terrible 3rd and long calls).
To say that the Ravens don’t have this problem because they have power and/or speed up the middle is to miss the point. This team was not constructed to have that personnel. Ryan expected that he would be able to pressure the QB pretty much anytime he wanted. All he had to do was dial it up. Well, the very first game against the Ravens showed how wrong he was (they had plenty of protection). And as the season has progressed the Jets have been somewhat exposed (at least by my eyes). They are just performing a balancing act against the pass, and are focused on the run (and the run blitz).
I do agree that Jenkins may have changed a lot of this, but people should have pretty much known that he wasn’t going to make it through the season. He was on an unstable knee and NT knees are the most injury prone anatomy by defensive position.
This is the thing (and I think from afar I would agree that @Crackback is right), the design of this team is NOT to have power of the middle.
I could believe that but for the Jets having 360lb NT Kris Jenkins on a $5.25m 2010 salary. They clearly wanted the bulk and power on the Nose, but with him being injured, they couldn’t manage it. Sione Pouha isn’t exactly skinny at 325lbs, either, and he’s got a fair level of power in him.
Jenkins’s injury hurt, and also mean Pouha was a starter rather than a gifted sub rusher or backup. Pouha started off hot, but faded somewhat as he was on for too many downs over a full season, at least from what I’ve seen. With Jenkins being spelled by Pouha, they’d have both played to their strengths, and that would’ve given up impetus up the middle. Flush the QB left or right in the pocket, and the slow OLB’s only got to run half as far to get to the QB.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
Contributing Writer at PatsPulpit
by Comedic.Sans on Dec 29, 2010 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
I think key is right about the scheme is designed to generate pressure from the DBs and that has obviously adjusted to that.
Also, jenkins was a holdover from the prior regime, he was already here when rex arrived. And I think that rex viewed him as an enhancer. He’s someone that actually greases the gears and opens lanes for his blitzers. And I think the plan for him this year was to play a lot more DE bc of last year’s emergence of pouha to hold down the middle.
And I think your off on pouha. Pouha is extremely good at holding the point if attack and he’s as good as anybody at the position against the run (he had 10 against the steelers I believe just 2 weeks ago). Don’t really see him fading at all. He’s just not the monster that a healthy jenkins is (very few are). Pouha will hold ground against a double and sometimes eat up a single. But jenkins could consistently penetrate against a double and just manhandled singles like the guy was a tackling dummy.
by Crackback on Dec 29, 2010 10:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
True, on Pouha
I was more thinking in terms of the Ravens comparison – Jenkins somewhat fits that Haloti Ngata mould, but Pouha doesn’t quite.
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by Comedic.Sans on Dec 30, 2010 6:59 PM EST up reply actions
Would the current Baltimore coordinator suffice?
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Firstly, a lukewarm “I tend to believe that we still have that scheme” isn’t a ringing endorsement. I “tend to believe”…. I have no idea what that means really. Do they call the same “blitz packages” (which is what your article title addresses)? From opponents like Mangini the core of the Ravens’ defense comes from their push up the middle from their interior players, not from their blitzes so much.
Secondly though, check out all the Raven fan comments that are below the quote. They are hilarious.
by ________key on Dec 29, 2010 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
Some thoughts
Well first the obvious-the defense has been merely ok this year. And merely ok is not good enough for a team that is not so good offensively. It would be very interesting to know the success percent in blitzes last year vs. this year (to have some idea about adaptation). The same general problems we see this year over and over again we actually saw in the Championship game last year. Two early Harris sacks. Then better protection (adaptation?), ineffective blitzes that leave the man coverage exposed.
Rex has a reputation of adapting his shemes to play to the strength of his players. It has been said that since the strengths of the Jets personelle are different than that of the Ravens, he defense is actually different. I don’t really know how true that is (I mean he brought in Scott and Leonhard perhaps to run a similar system but it also coould just be he liked them as players). Either way I don’t think Rex’s schemes always play to his player’s strengths. Simply look at how Wilson was entrusted with man coverage against the Ravens or the frequency that Taylor finds himself in coverage (and burned). I don’t think the Jets D is all that talented-a few real talents. Otherwise the D is slowish, filled with players weak in coverage down the middle (LBs and safties) and aging. Not the best of pictures. Sadly the one spot that the Patriots line is weak is the push right up the middle that Jenkins could have provided. Just look at the success BJ Raji,(2 sacks) Suh (sack, several pressures), Ngata(2 sacks), etc had. I still have visions of the first play of our season’s defense-push from Jenkins, and Ellis and Thomas make a Flacco sandwich jarring the ball loose. We haven’t seen that since.
There seems to be the idea out there that actually the Jets offense is stronger than the D. While it may have more talent and shown tantalizing flashes, this is not the case and by nearly any way you view it, the Jets offense is actually below average while the defense is better than average but not great. That does not give one great confidence in a deep run, but those are the facts. The defensive problems are not going to be fixed by Rex or anyone else by simply “practice” at this stage. On the other hand this is a decently talented team that could catch a few breaks and then who knows. Not likely-but possible.
I simply cant agree right now
Our offense is the better unit right now. The O-line even without Woody is playing better than the DLine, the running game isnt being utilized correctly(enough LDT already Schotty) but it can still be effective and the WRs and TEs have played decently.
The defense has been awful for the most part. I know there are some key injuries but the Jets were suppose to have great depth. There is no pass rush, no discipline, and poor tackling. I dont care about rankings either, they really mean nothing. How many times did this #1 ranked D fail last year at the end of games? At least three times. This d is among the most overrated things I have ever seen in any sport.
Should you choose to test my resolve in this matter, you will be facing a finality beyond your comprehension, and you will not be counting days, or months, or years, but milleniums in a place with no doors.
I don't think it is useful
to look over two game stretches to make such determinations. Sure-the offense has looked better over the last 2 games (against very good defenses indeed). But over the season it is simply not the case. By advanced stats Offensive Efficiency our offense is ranked 24. By DVOA it is 17. In both the defense is 9-10. You only have to go back 3 games to see the contrast. However I do think the offense has more talent. If somehow they can put together a consistent run based on what we have seen the last 2 weeks then I might agree.
Where would you rank Sanchez compared to others in the AFC or NFC
I rank him not in the top 10 in either.Our offense is ranked 24th which is exactly
where I believe Sanchez ranks as a QB.
by Putnan Prince on Dec 29, 2010 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
pretty close. Somewhere in that range.
however Sanchez highs and lows seem more spread than other “poor” QBs (I wonder if that is true). He has had some good games against good Ds (Miami first game, Bears, Steelers), and good teams (Patriots first game). I think he is capable of a good stretch of games against good teams.
I think Sanchez is better than 24th
He is second in our division behind Brady. And I would him ahead of 15 other teams right now. He is middle of the pack.
Should you choose to test my resolve in this matter, you will be facing a finality beyond your comprehension, and you will not be counting days, or months, or years, but milleniums in a place with no doors.
by YankeesJets on Dec 29, 2010 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
Hmm, I might suggest Fitzpatrick's done more with less, perhaps...
Fitzpatrick’s O-line isn’t as good as that of the Jets’, he’s got no particularly good TEs to ride (like Keller), and his WRs corps isn’t as good as the Jets overall (although you might take his #1 WR over any particular Jet at the moment).
Fitzpatrick might’ve been destroyed by the Pats lately, but then, so did Sanchez, so even that’s not determinative. It’s close, I just think there’s an argument there for Fitz.
Token southern hemisphere guy - 14,688km from Foxboro. That's 9128 miles, for you heathens.
Contributing Writer at PatsPulpit
by Comedic.Sans on Dec 30, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
I completely agree with you aside from being of the opinion that it isn’t even close. The only QB Sanchez outperforms in our division is Henne. Fitz plays better, does more with a LOT less and is statistically ranked quite a bit higher than Mark.
by nationalist88 on Dec 30, 2010 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
Actually Henne is ranked 16th in DYAR, Fitzpatrick 18th and Sanchez 19th.
23rd, 26th and 29th in DVOA respectively.
by ________key on Dec 31, 2010 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
Agree
with Comedic, nationalist and Key-Fitzpatrick has been better for sure, and a case can be made for Henne…
One other interesting thing (unrelated):
Comedic, as per the part of the discussion a few days ago that actually was about football (and I apologize for the parts that were not), this might be an interesting read:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/03/singal-vs-noise-in-football-stats.html
There is als a newer such study. Basically, integrated over all teams (and that might be the catch), defensive interceptions are noise. They are not controlled by the defense. In fact this type of study fits totally into wat the Patriots D has done-first half less than 1 int per game, second half more than 2; or the Saints last year and this (we were all told they are a bendable, high TO D-but this year they are way behind last year’s pace in TOs and INTs). Now for the Patriots or other individual cases this may not hold-statistic on the mass may not pertain to individual cases, but it is interesting to think about.
i'm not getting this
maybe i’m a dummy but i thought the idea of a 3-4 was the olb’s to blitz and not the db’s?
why have lb’s that can’t play coverage and not blitz them. hopefully rex has lots of new looks up his sleeves for the playoffs cause if he doesn’t we could be in trouble. wish we had got mays in the draft and converted him to a lb. he could blitz and drop into coverage and pick up all those te’s we seem to have so much trouble keeping quiet.
also another thing i have noticed is the serious lack of big hits the d has given this year.i remember revis with 1 but thats about it. nobody is scared to go over the middle and make catches .
bottom line is having slow lb’s that can’t generate pass russ or drop in coverage is a recipe for disaster and something that needs fixing for next year
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